AFP – Myanmar promises EU to hold fair vote
AFP – Myanmar’s First Budget In Decades
Reuters – Myanmar by-elections vital for EU sanctions move: official
Straits Times – UN gives Suu Kyi non-violence prize awarded in 2002
UPI – More praise heaped on Myanmar
BBC News – EU announces $200m Burma infrastructure package
Channel NewsAsia – Yoma Strategic eyes growth in Myanmar
The Edge Singapore – Yoma buys 70% in Myanmar site, reports Q3 profit
Deutsche Welle – Change in Myanmar: Opposition gaining ground
Asia News Network – Thailand sees big potential for Burma
The Nation – Opinion: A new era of the Asean-Burma family saga
Europe Online Magazine – EU development commissioner mulls lifting sanctions on Myanmar
Bernama – Myanmar Man Gets 23 Years, Four Strokes For Immigration, People Smuggling Offences
New Kerala – Thai company to explore oil in Myanmar
New Kerala – Myanmar foreign trade to grow by 30 percent
Department of Foreign Affairs – Secretary Del Rosario Meets Filipino Community in Myanmar
Asia Sentinel – Tensions between Myanmar’s Hardliners and Liberals
Medical News Today – First Direct Evidence Of Effect Of Malaria On Fetal Growth
TwoCircles.net – Myanmar foreign trade to grow by 30 percent
Aljazeera – Ending Myanmar’s civil war
The Irrawaddy – No Breakthrough in Strike Talks
The Irrawaddy – EDITORIAL: Burma’s Trust Deficit
The Irrawaddy – NDF Feeling Vindicated by NLD About-turn
Mizzima News – Latecomer Burma potential ‘economic power house’
Mizzima News – Now is time to invest in health, education: Nambiar
Mizzima News – Dunkley talks about his arrest, changes in Burma
DVB News – ASEAN chief warns of reform ‘exploitation’
DVB News – Student army latest to join peace talks
DVB News – As confidence grows, the regime’s vice-like grip loosens
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Myanmar promises EU to hold fair vote
AFP – 9 hrs ago

Myanmar’s military-backed government assured visiting top EU officials on Monday that upcoming by-elections heralding the opposition’s return to mainstream politics will be democratic.

“We have taken the necessary measures so that the upcoming by-elections will be free, fair and credible,” lower house speaker Shwe Mann told EU development commissioner Andris Piebalgs, speaking through an interpreter.

The April 1 polls, which will see Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi stand for a seat in parliament for the first time, are viewed as a key test of the authorities’ commitment to budding reforms.

A 2010 election which swept the army’s political allies to power was marred by widespread complaints of cheating and intimidation.

The opposition cannot threaten the ruling party’s majority even if it takes all 48 available seats in the by-election, but a Suu Kyi win would lend legitimacy to the fledgling parliament.

Piebalgs, who was carrying an EU pledge to provide 150 million euros (almost $200 million) in additional aid to Myanmar over the next two years, later met President Thein Sein behind closed doors.

“It is sustainable, what is happening here, but let’s keep our eyes open,” Piebalgs said afterwards. “You feel that no one doubts the sincerity of the reforms even if they have some disagreement about what is happening now.”

The commissioner, who was accompanied by German development minister Dirk Niebel, was also set to meet Suu Kyi during his three-day trip.

After nearly half a century of outright military rule, the regime has surprised observers with reforms including welcoming the opposition back into the official political arena and releasing hundreds of dissidents.

Shwe Mann, a former general who is a key figure in the new regime, acknowledged there were “still some remaining political prisoners”, but added “the remaining prisoners are those who have committed criminal activities”.

The European Union agreed in January to begin easing sanctions on Myanmar, lifting travel bans against the nation’s leaders and pledging further action if the reforms continue.

“Once we’re confident that the elections are free, fair and democratic then I’m very hopeful that the sanctions will be lifted,” Niebel said after Monday’s talks.

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Myanmar’s First Budget In Decades
AFP – Sun, Feb 12, 2012

NAYPYIDAW, (AFP) – Myanmar’s fledgling parliament is slaving over its first budget, a daunting task for the inexperienced body in a country where the army has long been used to dipping into state coffers at will.

It has been almost a year since Myanmar, after decades of military rule, embarked on a political transition with a new nominally civilian government.

For the novice lawmakers in the nation’s twin-chamber parliament, dominated by soldiers and former military personnel; that means once impenetrable dossiers are now open to fierce debate.

”We have a broad framework but it is very complex,” said Aung Tun Thet, an adviser to the United Nations in Yangon, referring to the draft budget prepared by President Thein Sein’s government in December.

During the long era of successive juntas, the budget was prepared by the government alone.

”There was no assessment, no discussion, no dialogue. Now for the first time in many, many years, we have a chance to discuss the budget and its priorities,” Aung Tun Thet told AFP.

”It’s a very refreshing step forward,” he added. ”It’s a demonstration of the checks and balances between the legislative and the executive.”

Although the army-backed ruling party holds an overwhelming majority, lawmakers have embraced their new-found power; debating laws, voting and shuttling bills between the two chambers.

Some of the spending plans will surely please the West. According to the Ministry of Planning and Development, the plan is to double the education budget and spend four times as much on health as in the last fiscal year.

It would be a welcome change. Myanmar has a record of committing just $7 per year per person to healthcare, a mere 1.8 percent of the total budget, one of the lowest health spending rates in the world according to a 2009 UN report.

But the government is also seeking to spend 15.33 percent of the budget on the armed forces.

”We cannot agree on what they asked for,” an opposition lower house member, speaking on condition of anonymity, said of the military spending request, accusing the government of comparing Myanmar with neighboring countries ”that are developed whereas we are not.”

”We cannot talk about it openly now as it’s a sensitive matter to discuss,” he told AFP.

If the draft budget is approved, the army’s slice would officially rise 50 percent to $2.35 billion compared to the previous year.

But debates are made even more difficult because the earlier budgets were never published, de facto considered as state secrets.

Aye Maung, an upper house representative and chairman of the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party (RNDP), one of Myanmar’s ethnic-based political parties, said he was ready to approve the request for more military spending.

”We can accept it. But we don’t know whether this number is realistic or not as we don’t know the previous budget.”

In 2009, defense intelligence organization Jane’s Sentinel estimated the army budget to be around $1.5 billion.

”It is unlikely that even Myanmar’s military government can accurately calculate the full cost of the country’s armed forces,” it added in its annual report.

Experts concur that the army helped itself to the country’s funds for nearly half a century, notably profiting from a wide portion of the oil revenues.

Several of the highest-ranking officers belonging to the former junta, which relinquished power last March, consequently had their assets frozen under Western sanctions.

But cheerleaders of Myanmar’s recent reform efforts promise the army will not be given free reign in this year’s budget.

Toe Naing Mann, son of former junta number-three turned lower house speaker Shwe Mann, is one of them.

”The chief of the army does not want to participate in politics,” he said about General Min Aung Hlain, who is one year into his new job.

He said the military budget was quite high relative to Gross Domestic Product, but still rather low in real terms.

”Now, we can proceed with a revolution of military affairs,” he said. ”We have to reduce armed forces, from quantity to quality.”

The money discussions are expected to last a few more weeks. The result will be the first budget debated in parliament since the first post-colonial military coup in 1962.

The discussion ”provides a historic opportunity to redefine national spending priorities and bring fiscal transparency,” said Meral Karasulu, who headed an International Monetary Fund mission to Myanmar last month.

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Myanmar by-elections vital for EU sanctions move: official
By Martin Petty | Reuters – 8 hrs ago

NAYPYITAW, Myanmar (Reuters) – A top EU official held out the prospect of a further easing of sanctions on Myanmar after a meeting on Monday with the country’s president and announced increased aid to acknowledge reforms already begun by a new civilian administration.

European Commissioner for Development Andris Piebalgs is the most senior European Union official to meet President Thein Sein since a civilian administration took office in the former Burma last March after almost 50 years of army rule.

“There is concern (on the government side) that they’ve made reforms, they released political prisoners, they opened up, but the sanctions are still in place,” Piebalgs told reporters.

“Now it’s very clear that the watershed is elections in April. If it goes as expected and is free and fair, then everyone would expect the easing of sanctions to continue.”

A new parliament is dominated by military personnel and an army-backed party that won a general election in November 2010 amid opposition complaints of rigging.

But by-elections on April 1 should see more opposition members voted in, including Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace laureate and long-time campaigner for democracy.

“The president mentioned a lot about Aung San Suu Kyi and it was all positive. That was unexpected,” Piebalgs said.

“He said she was extremely important in the country and her participation in the political process was crucial. That’s a very positive sign.”

The government, which is anxious to see the end of sanctions, pulled out all the stops to allow Suu Kyi to run. It hopes her presence will add legitimacy to a parliament that is becoming more vocal but still has only limited powers.

Piebalgs will meet Suu Kyi at her home in the former capital, Yangon, on Tuesday.

“The restrictive measures are definitely affecting their growth … The restrictive measures are painful for them because they see their potential for foreign investment,” Piebalgs said of the sanctions.

“I had to explain that this takes time. Suspending some measures, it needs consensus from 27 countries and that’s not such an easy thing to achieve in the EU,” he added.

SUU KYI WELCOME

Earlier, in a meeting that a handful of journalists were, unusually, allowed to attend, Piebalgs told house speaker Thura Shwe Mann it was important that parliament became an active player in the reform process.

Shwe Mann, number three in the former junta and a pivotal figure in the new administration, said he would be happy to see Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) in parliament. The party swept a 1990 election for a constituent assembly but the military ignored the result. It boycotted the 2010 election.

“We have established a parliament, taking the necessary actions for democracy to thrive in Myanmar. The NLD and other parties, if they win in the by-elections, they can be in parliament. We will welcome them,” he told Piebalgs.

The European Union and the United States have also said the freeing of political prisoners was crucial to the resumption of full diplomatic and economic links.

Last month, the EU eased sanctions slightly by temporarily lifting travel bans on Thein Sein and some other top officials in response to ceasefire deals with ethnic minority rebels and a fourth prisoner amnesty on January 13, when about 300 political detainees were freed.

Estimates vary on how many remain behind bars, but Shwe Mann suggested there could be further amnesties after an official review.

“The remaining political prisoners are those who have committed criminal activities in this country. Those who are on that list, if they have been involved in terrorist activities or harmed the public, they will not be included,” he said.

Piebalgs announced a 150 million euro ($198 million), two-year aid package to help Myanmar reverse decades of stagnation because of international isolation and inept military rule.

The European Union is leading the way in supporting a country badly in need of infrastructure and health and education facilities. Its new aid package is worth almost as much as the 173 million euros it has given Myanmar since 1996.

That aid concentrated on health and education, but the new package will also help people displaced by conflict and provide funding for agriculture, on which many of the country’s estimated 60 million people depend.

The European Union’s annual sanctions review takes place in April, after the April 1 by-elections for 48 legislative assembly seats.

“The release of prisoners and, if it ends up being the case, free elections in April, will be used as motivation for the EU to prove that engagement ‘works’,” said Joakim Kreutz, an expert on Myanmar sanctions at Sweden’s Uppsala University.

“I still expect the arms embargo and some personal sanctions on junta veterans to remain, but I would not be surprised if some measures are lifted.”

Western businesses are increasingly interested in Myanmar’s natural resources — oil, gas, timber and gemstones — and are also looking to invest in tourism, financial services, hotels, telecommunications networks and infrastructure, but big companies are holding back until sanctions are lifted.

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Straits Times – UN gives Suu Kyi non-violence prize awarded in 2002
Published on Feb 13, 2012

YANGON (AP) – The United Nations (UN) has given Ms Aung San Suu Kyi a 10-year-old peace award delayed by her long house arrest.

A UN official visiting Myanmar presented Ms Suu Kyi with its Mandanjeet Singh Prize for the Promotion of Tolerance and Nonviolence on Monday.

Myanmar’s former ruling junta had Ms Suu Kyi under house arrest when she was named for the prize in 2002.

The Paris-based UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation said in a statement that its chief Ryuhei Hosoya delivered the prize. It is named after an Indian writer and philanthropist.

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More praise heaped on Myanmar
Published: Feb. 13, 2012 at 12:09 PM

NAYPYITAW, Myanmar, Feb. 13 (UPI) — Myanmar would be considered a political success story if it maintains the current pace of democratic reforms, a European official said during a visit.

Andris Piebalgs, development commissioner for the European Union, met with Myanmar’s leaders during his visit to the country.

Myanmar has earned praise from Western governments following a series of reforms that began with 2010 general elections, the first in decades. The government has since released scores of prisoners of conscience, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who is running in upcoming by-elections.

Piebalgs, who arrived with a pledge of around $200 million in aid, said Myanmar is becoming a political success story.

“Studying carefully the context, this is clearly a great likelihood, especially if the current pace of reform continues,” he said.

Some of the prisoners of conscious released this year said political reforms were window dressing. Nevertheless, Irina Bokova, director general of the U.N. Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, said Myanmar had broad support.

“UNESCO welcomes the government of Myanmar’s comprehensive program of democratization and reform and we are determined to accompany this process in our fields of competence,” Bokova said in a statement.

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13 February 2012 Last updated at 10:57 ET
BBC News – EU announces $200m Burma infrastructure package

A European Union envoy has announced more aid for Burma, holding out the prospect of a further easing of sanctions, after talks in the country.

Development Commissioner Andris Piebalgs said that if by-elections in April were free and fair, more sanctions were likely to be eased.

He announced an aid package of nearly $200m (£128m) aimed at health, education and basic infrastructure.

He said President Thein Sein had spoken positively about Aung San Suu Kyi.

The opposition leader is currently standing for a seat in parliament.

“There is concern [on the government side] that they’ve made reforms, they released political prisoners, they opened up, but the sanctions are still in place,” Mr Piebalgs said.

“Now it’s very clear that the watershed is elections in April. If it goes as expected and is free and fair, then everyone would expect the easing of sanctions to continue.”

Elections in November led to parliament being dominated by military personnel and an army-backed party. The vote also led to opposition complaints of rigging.

But by-elections on 1 April should see more opposition members voted in, including Ms Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace laureate and long-time campaigner for democracy.

“The president mentioned a lot about Aung San Suu Kyi and it was all positive. That was unexpected,” Mr Piebalgs said.

“He said she was extremely important in the country and her participation in the political process was crucial. That’s a very positive sign.”

Mr Piebalgs will meet Ms Suu Kyi at her home in the former capital, Rangoon, on Tuesday.

He said that sanctions are definitely affecting Burmese growth and were painful for the government because they impeded potential for foreign investment.

He said that suspending some measures however would take time, because such a move needs consensus among 27 EU countries, something that is “not such an easy thing to achieve”.

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Channel NewsAsia – Yoma Strategic eyes growth in Myanmar
By Avelyn Ng | Posted: 13 February 2012 2237 hrs

SINGAPORE: Property developer Yoma Strategic Holdings said it has agreed to acquire a 70 per cent economic interest in Star City, a residential and commercial development in Myanmar.

The 135-acre land development is located in the Thanlyin township which is adjacent to an area expected to be designated as a Special Economic Zone on the outskirts of Yangon.

The company said in a statement that the acquisition cost of S$91 million will be financed through a rights issue.

This will be on the basis of four rights shares for every five existing shares in the company at 24 cents each.

Star City will comprise more than 9,000 units of apartments and houses, shopping and commercial areas.

Mr Andrew Rickards, chief executive officer of Yoma Strategic, said: “The acquisition of Star City represents a significant boost to our real estate business and should give us a strong pipeline for next six to eight years while we develop other businesses under the group in Myanmar.”

Yoma also reported it has returned to profitability with a net profit of S$1.4 million for the three months ended December 31, 2011.

This reversed a net loss of S$0.5 million a year ago due to the increased sales of housing and land development rights (LDR) in Myanmar.

It added that about 75 per cent of the company’s net assets and 100 per cent of its revenue now come from Myanmar.

Yoma is also upbeat of its prospects going forward.

Its executive chairman Mr Serge Pun said: “We believe that with Myanmar’s reintegration with the global economy, we will stand to benefit not only from the sales of housing and LDRs, but also from the development of our other business areas.”

The remaining 30 per cent interest in the Star City Project is held by First Myanmar Investment (FMI), the flagship company of the Serge Pun & Associates (SPA) Group in Myanmar.

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The Edge Singapore – Yoma buys 70% in Myanmar site, reports Q3 profit
Tags: Yoma Strategic Holdings
Written by The Edge
Monday, 13 February 2012 15:36

Singapore-listed property developer Yoma Strategic Holdings said it agreed to acquire a 70% economic interest in Star City, a residential and commercial development on the outskirts of Myanmar’s Yangon, for $91 million, reported Reuters.

Yoma will finance the acquisition through a rights issue of up to 422.12 million shares at $0.24 each, on the basis of four rights shares for every five existing ordinary shares in the company, it said in a statement.

“The acquisition of Star City represents a significant boost to our real estate business and should give us a strong pipeline for next 6-8 years while we develop other businesses under the group in Myanmar,” said Chief Executive Officer Andrew Rickards.

Yoma also said it swung to a net profit of $1.4 million for the three months to December versus a net loss of $0.5 million a year ago, mainly due to a significant increase in the sales of housing and land development rights in Myanmar.

The company said about 75% of its net assets and 100% of its revenue were from Myanmar. On Monday, Yoma’s shares were up 7.6% at $0.42 and have doubled so far this year.

Yoma is betting on a middle class developing in Myanmar as the country emerges from half a century of isolation under military rule, and investors are taking note, Yoma CEO Andrew Rickards told Reuters last month.

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Deutsche Welle – Change in Myanmar: Opposition gaining ground
Date 13.02.2012

The campaign for April elections is in full swing for leading opposition figure, Aung San Suu Kyi. The military-backed government has assured visiting EU officials that the upcoming by-election will be democratic.

For nearly half a century, Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, was in the iron grip of a military dictatorship. But since March of last year, President Thein Sein has been introducing cautious political reforms.

The country’s military-backed government on Monday assured visiting EU officials that the upcoming by-election will be democratic.

“We have taken the necessary measures so that the upcoming by-elections will be free, fair and credible,” said the speaker of the Lower House of Parliament, Shwe Mann in talks with EU Development Commissioner Andris Piebalgs and German Development Minister Dirk Niebel.

The European Union agreed in January to begin easing sanctions on Myanmar, lifting travel bans and pledging further action, if reforms continue.

“Once we are confident that the elections are free, then I am very hopeful that sanctions will be lifted,” Niebel said after Monday’s talks.

Key test

Now that the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) is no longer banned, and the party’s chairwoman, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, is free after nearly two decades of house arrest, Suu Kyi has been busy on the campaign trail in the run-up to the April 1 elections.

The polls are viewed as a key test for the country’s budding reforms. A 2010 election, which swept the army’s political allies to power, was marred by widespread complaints of cheating and intimidation.

Suu Kyi is tirelessly campaigning around the country. Crowds of people gather on the streets to get a glimpse of her because if there is anyone in Myanmar who embodies the future of the country it is the 66-year-old woman they call “The Lady.”

The by-election concerns only 48 seats in parliament and no one doubts that Suu Kyi and the NLD will win many of them.

The “Lady” has not been outside the former capital Yangon in 20 years due to her house arrest. In Myaing, 250 kilometers northwest of the city, she visited an Aids project and spoke to a seemingly endless sea of people.

“It is important to speak to as many people as possible, in order to understand everyone. I need the help of everybody to succeed,” she said.

United against adversity

However, in Mandalay, the country’s second largest city, Suu Kyi was not able to speak to “everybody.” The authorities reneged on a promise to let her have a rally in the local stadium. She is a force to be reckoned with. The entire opposition has united behind Suu Kyi, including Ko Ko Gyi, a student leader, who was just recently released from prison.

“The by-election is both an opportunity and a challenge. It is a matter dear to our hearts and we support Aung San Suu Kyi,” he said.

Zeya Thus, the deputy editor-in-chief of the independent weekly “The Voice,” is sure that the opposition will remain united for a long time. Aung San Suu Kyi is the only person to lead it, he says.

“My personal opinion is that Aung San Suu Kyi will win a landslide victory in the by-election,” predicts Thu.

Long way to go

Suu Kyi promises change and a move toward democracy. She says she will alter the constitution written by the military in 2008.

But what will the policies be of the NLD and the Nobel laureate, once they have won seats in parliament?

U Thein Oo is an NLD backer and the one who runs the show behind Suu Kyi. He she will practice her politics with or without the backing of parliament.

“Aung San Suu Kyi has spoken with President Thein Sein, but she does not know whether she can work with the government. Her role is that of an opposition leader, and if need be, she will continue to play that role outside of parliament,” notes U Thein Oo.

The 80-year-old sits in an office on the second floor of a cramped NLD party headquarters in Yangon. Important decisions on the future of Myanmar are being made in the tiny, bare room with opaque windows. The headquarters of the country’s leading opposition party is, in a way, symbolic for the long road still ahead.

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Asia News Network – Thailand sees big potential for Burma
The Nation, Business Desk
Publication Date : 13-02-2012

As the new regime embarks on reforms after years of authoritarian rule, billions of baht are ready to pour into the neighbouring country.

Burma is now becoming one of the world’s most sought-after countries after its democracy started blossoming, signalling that it is ready to open up and woo foreign investors.

Burma’s democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi recently said “political reforms are as important as economic reforms that are slowly taking place”. She also advised foreign businesses to adopt a “wait-and-see” attitude “for their own good as well as that of the country” before investing.

The recent visit of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is helping to improve the situation in Burma. The upcoming by-election for Aung San Suu Kyi also signals that Burma is opening up and seeking foreign investment, Somchet Thinaphong, managing director of Dawei Development Co, said recently.

U Soe Thein, Burma’s industry minister, told international journalists at an economic forum in Davos, Switzerland last month that the tax incentive law could be passed by the end of the parliamentary session convening next month.

Efforts are also underway to boost international business confidence in the kyat – the Burmese currency – in consultation with the International Monetary Fund.

There are plenty of opportunities for doing business in Burma. Investors from China, Japan, Singapore, India and Asean, including Thailand, have been rushing into the country.

Burma has potential as a production base in the region for giant manufacturers. It has abundant natural resources, especially energy, and a sizeable population of 60 million people.

Apart from the massive Dawei project with overall investment of US$8 billion or 240 billion baht, for which Thailand’s largest contractor Ital-Thai Group was granted the concession by the Burmese government last year, more than a dozen Thai firms have explored expansion there.

About 80-90 per cent of Thailand’s investment in Burma is for energy while the rest is for manufacturing, trading, services and tourism.

Though the actual investment figure has not emerged, billions of baht from Thai investors are expected to pour into Burma.

According to a CIMB economic update, foreign direct investment in Burma has been surging. Investment pledges had soared to nearly $20 billion as of March 2011 from $172.7 million in fiscal year 2007-08.

Investor interest is mostly concentrated in Burma’s extensive offshore reserves of natural gas and hydropower.

PTT Exploration and Production, a subsidiary of Thailand’s largest energy conglomerate, will pursue more gas exploration and production in the western neighbour. Thai Oil, another PTT subsidiary, is aiming to establish a refinery and will tie up with PTT to invest in the energy business in neighbouring countries, of which Burma is one target. The overall investment budget was set as high as hundreds of billions of baht.

SCG, Thailand’s largest building materials conglomerate, and Siam City Cement, its second largest cement producer, plan to invest in a cement plant in Burma.

Berli Jucker, a leading trading house, will set up a glass factory and Thai President Food, producer of “Mama” instant noodles, is looking to establish an instant-noodle factory and biogas power plant.

Thai hotel operators are also securing a foothold in Burma, including Baiyoke of Panlert Baiyoke and Chatrium Hotel of Chatri Sophonpanich, a major shareholder and executive of Bangkok Bank.

Bangkok Bank is already operating a representative office in Rangoon, while Siam Commercial Bank and Krungthai Bank are planning to follow.

Thailand was Burma’s largest foreign investor in the past decades. However, the Kingdom lost the crown to China in 2010, according to the Thai-Myanmar Business Council.

Thailand has invested $7.41 billion in Burma from 1988-2009, making it the top player in the country in investment value during that period.

Last year, cumulative investment from Thailand to Burma reached 20 billion baht ($648 million), making the Kingdom the second-largest foreign investor there after China, followed by Hong Kong and South Korea. On average, Burma’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 7.7 per cent from 2001-10. Its economic growth is projected at 5.6 per cent per year for 2011-15.

While oil and gas, mining and timber are the most productive industries in Burma, they have few economic linkages to the wider economy, so multiplier effects are low, CIMB Research said. Heavy dependence on the oil and gas industry exposes the economy to volatility in commodity prices.

Other industries such as manufacturing, services and tourism are lagging behind due to inadequate infrastructure, unpredictable economic policies and tough trade and economic sanctions.

Despite some boost from expected normal cereal production in the current fiscal year, its agricultural sector’s potential remains constrained by low yields, fixed pricing and state requisitioning, CIMB Research said. Agricultural output accounts for about 40 per cent of Burma’s GDP.

China and Thailand are among the major investors in its hydrocarbon and energy industries.

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The Nation – Opinion: A new era of the Asean-Burma family saga
Kavi Chongkittavorn February 13, 2012 1:00 am

When Dr Surin Pitsuwan, Secretary General of Asean, sets foot on Nayphidaw, 20 February, as the guest of Burmese government, it will mark a new beginning of Asean-Burma family saga which began unexpectedly on 7 July 1995.

That day Burmese ambassador Thi Thi Thun to Indonesia expressed his country’s readiness to accede to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation as a precursor to become a member of Asean. It came at a time of great contention as the Asean members were locking horns with dialogue partners, especially the US and European Union, over the deteriorating political situation inside Burma. Three days later, Dawn Aung San Suu Kyi was freed from house arrest. That was the first time that Burma showed some diplomatic finesse, with her freedom, it helped to increase the Asean’s bargaining position against the West. From the Rangoon’s perspective, Burma was contributing to the regional consensus and strength.

Within weeks, Burma signed TAC in Brunei Darusalam at the end of July 1995 and joined the grouping in 1997. Indeed, for a potential new member with such a longstanding turbulent history, Burma was given a special treatment – a super fast-track – as it took only two years. Vietnam and Cambodia each waited nearly four years while Laos for six years to prepare for the admission. One key factor to embrace Burma quickly at the time was to counter growing China’s influence – admittedly, it was unnecessary. At the 1998 Asean meeting in Hanoi, Burmese Foreign Minister U Min Ung told his colleagues that the reason why Burma joined the Asean was that it did not want to join the “other side”. He did not mention the name but it was well understood as China.

The Asean leaders’ decision to support the Burmese chair in 2014 at the Asean Summit in Bali last November helped to open up the country to the outside world. For 15 years since joining Asean, Burma was considered an albatross around the Asean’s neck until the rapid transformation began less than six months ago. It took 28 years after the Asean’s approach to Burma before it showed any interest to be part of the regional family.

Ironically, at present Burma is positioning itself far ahead of Asean with the overwhelming goodwill from the international community which used to shun the country. Most of the attractions come from the charismatic opposition leader, Dawn Aung San Suu Kyi. Since her release, her comments were zeroed on domestic issues concerning poverty eradication, healthcare, education, youth development, and environment protection. But in the past few weeks, she has made substantial comments on her country’s business environments with a big dose of “wait and see” warnings about the lack of infrastructure and legal frameworks. During the meeting with the Asean Business Club last Tuesday, Suu Kyi also revealed for the first time of her “simple ambition” to see Burma further developed and hopefully overtaken some of the Asean members in the next 10 years. But she did not elaborate.

It is a tall order but is nonetheless attainable. To succeed and make progress exponentially, Burma must integrate with Asean and tap into the grouping’s dynamism and abundant resource. Throughout its history, Burma has the unyielding consistency and tenacity unrivalled by other Asean members. Before Asean, Burma stayed non-aligned, isolated and very much stood by its own feet. Now it is changing because it wants to, at least for the time being. That explains why the Burmese leaders have never mentioned the Asean factors publicly that have brought about the current situation. The Asean Secretariat has to appeal the Burmese permanent representative in Jakarta consistently to secure Dr Surin’s official visit – the first since the Asean leaders’ decision to support Burma’s chair. His trip follows an unending avalanche of high-level visits from the West kicked off by US State Secretary Hilary’s historic trip.

No doubt, Burma has a lot of catching up to do in the Asean-related programs and activities contained in 667 action lines. During his five day visit, Dr Surin should sit down and work out long-term plans for Burma’s future integration with Asean and preparing for the 2014 chair with the Burmese counterparts. Again, Suu Kyi’s understandings and views of Asean will be parts and parcels of measures to plug into the grouping’s ongoing dynamics. Therefore, she needs to come to terms with Asean including those nasty comments by some Asean leaders that belittled her and denied her access and supports over the past two decades. She and Asean have to make a new jump start – akin to what she did dialoguing with the Thein Sein administration last August.

The Surin-Suu Kyi scheduled meeting on 22 February is pivotal as it will mark a new beginning of Asean-Burma family. After the April by-election, she is expected to become an elected as a member of parliament, commenting and making suggestions on foreign policy and Asean affairs. Obviously, if she wishes, she can join many activities initiated by fellow Asean MPs with or without Asean frameworks. Surin must take this unique opportunity to listen to all Burmese stakeholders in Nayphidaw and Rangoon what are their expectations and how their aspirations can be fulfilled. Asean is ready to extend all forms of assistance including capacity-building for Burma, especially to the preparations for the 2014 chair. Burma skipped the chair in 2006 citing domestic constraints. Now all doors are open for full engagements.

Surin, whose five-year term ends this year, will also visit the Irrawaddy Delta that was hardest hit by the 2008 Nargis Cyclone. He used to quip once that he was baptized by the disaster. Having said that, he must be gratify to see that Burma recovered and has gradually joined the international community. Least we forget, it was the Asean initiative as well as his personal intervention that eventually convinced Burma to allow the flow of international aid and humanitarian assistance to help the victims and devastated areas. The turning point was at the pledging Asean-UN conference in June 2008 that demonstrated to the Burmese junta leaders that the international community was ready to help if certain conditions were met at the same time it also showed the Burmese people’s readiness to receive outside assistance. The tripartite core group – Asean, Burma and international organisations – was the first undertaking that enabled influxes of huge amount of foreign aids, experts and nongovernmental representatives. In more ways than one, without Asean’s lending hands, nobody knows what Burma would look like today granted the growing frustrations among the international community at that time against the regime’s unyielding attitude to accept assistance from outside. In retrospect, Burma has a lot to thank Asean for lifting the veils of secrecy and opening up. Strange but true, such perception might not suit the sentiment in the highly nationalistic Nayphidaw as the Burmese leaders are very independent mind and seldom stressed external factors as reasons for domestic changes.

No wonder, at the January’s foreign ministerial retreat in Siem Reap last month, Burmese Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin was surprised to hear suggestions from his colleagues that Burma should invite them all to his country. The most frequently asked question: where is Asean in all these developments? Without the invitation, each of them has to plan the trip separately which does not augur well with the Asean way. As a result, Nayphidaw has eventually agreed to host a special foreign ministerial retreat after the April election.

It is interesting to see how the Asean-Burma relations evolve now on. Before the reformation, the Burmese leaders have never credited Asean for whatever they did or maneuvered. Will it change? When the Asean foreign ministers met in Phuket in 2010 under the Thai chair, they warned Burma that otherwise the country changed, they would not defend Burma as they did before. In a way, Asean was considered a late comer of sort because during in past six months, almost all news headlines were dominated by visits of Western dignitaries and their plans of economic assistances.

Will Surin’s visit serve as a bridge to integrate Burma and allow it to grow within the embrace of Asean? We will find out soon.

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Europe Online Magazine – EU development commissioner mulls lifting sanctions on Myanmar
Europe 13.02.2012
By our dpa-correspondent and Europe Online

Naypyitaw, Myanmar (dpa) – The European Union‘s development commissioner on Monday confirmed a 150-million-euro aid package to Myanmar and discussed the possibility of lifting sanctions on the former pariah state if reforms continue.

Andris Piebalgs met with President Thein Sein and House Speaker Shwe Mann, who assured him of the government‘s commitment to reforms.

Piebalgs confirmed the EU‘s pledge of the aid package over the next three years.

Shwe Mann told Piebalgs that more political prisoners may be freed. The release of all political prisoners is one condition for normalizing relations with the West.

An April 1 by-election for parliament must also be free and fair, Piebalgs said.

Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and members of her National League for Democracy are contesting the by-election.

Piebalgs was scheduled to meet Suu Kyi on Tuesday in Yangon.

The EU envoy‘s visit was a response to several reforms that Thein Sein has initiated since coming to power in March.

The former army general and member of the junta that ruled Myanmar for two decades has taken a progressive tack since winning the November 2010 election.

He began political dialogue with Suu Kyi and has paved the way for her party members to stand for parliament seats.

The government has also freed about 600 political prisoners, although hundreds more remain, and signed ceasefires with six ethnic minority insurgencies.

EU foreign ministers last month decided to lift visa bans on Myanmar‘s leaders, but sanctions remain on dozens of members of the former military regime.

The EU also bans investments in state-owned enterprises and has embargoes against arm exports to the country, as well as imports of hardwood, gems and precious metal.

The bloc is also planning to open an office in Yangon, where currently only the four biggest EU members – Germany, France, Britain and Italy – have embassies.

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February 13, 2012 15:17 PM
Myanmar Man Gets 23 Years, Four Strokes For Immigration, People Smuggling Offences

BUTTERWORTH, Feb 13 (Bernama) — The Sessions Court today sentenced a Myanmar national to a total of 23 years in jail and ordered him to be caned four times for entering the country illegally, smuggling in six people and having 17 false visit passes.

Judge Ikmal Hishan Mohd Tajuddin delivered the judgement after Chan Win, 40, who had worked as a painter and tile layer in Sungai Petani, pleaded guilty to four charges under the Anti-Trafficking in Persons and Anti-Smuggling of Migrants Act 2007 and the Immigration Act 1959/63.

Chan will serve only seven years in jail as the judge has ordered the sentences to run concurrently.

Chan was sentenced to five years’ jail and ordered to be given four strokes of the cane under Section 56(1)(c) of the Immigration Act for entering Malaysia without a valid permit.

He was sentenced to seven years’ jail under Section 26A of the Anti-Trafficking in Persons and Anti-Smuggling of Migrants Act and six years’ jail under Section 55E(1) of the Immigration Act for smuggling six illegal immigrants into the country on Jan 10 this year.

He committed this offence with the six people in a Proton Perdana V6 car at the Sungai Dua southbound toll plaza at 11.30 am on that day.

The six were a woman, Tha Zin Htwe, 29, a man, Myo Min Soe, 27, and boys Myo Aung Aung, 19, Naing Soe, 19, Mio Thu Aung, 15, and That Naing Lin, eight.

Chan was sentenced to five years’ jail under Section 56(1)(1) of the Immigration Act for having in his possession 17 false visit passes.

DPP Siti Aishah Ramlan appeared for the prosecution while Chan was unrepresented.

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New Kerala – Thai company to explore oil in Myanmar

Yangon, Feb 13 : Thailand’s state-owned PTT company will explore oil and gas in Myanmar’s two onshore blocks, a media report said.
PTT Exploration and Production Plc, Thailand’s largest energy company, was last month awarded a licence for the PSC-G and EP2 petroleum blocks, covering 13,000-sq km.

The company is already developing a gas field in the Gulf of Martaban.

It is expected to produce 300 million cubic feet daily by the end of next year.

Eighty percent of the gas will be exported to Thailand, while the rest will be used domestically, Mizzima News reported Monday. PTT will invest USD 2 billion in the project.

Myanmar has 47 oil and natural gas onshore blocks. China, which is extracting oil and gas in 23 of the inland blocks, is the largest investor. Malaysia is the second largest.

These blocks produce more than 9,300 barrels of crude oil and over 100 million cubic feet of natural gas per day. (IANS)

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New Kerala – Myanmar foreign trade to grow by 30 percent

Yangon, Feb 13 : Myanmar’s foreign trade will grow by more than 30 percent to USD 16.1 billion in the 2011-12 fiscal year, the commerce ministry said. It was USD 12 billion in the previous fiscal.

Driven by increased natural gas exports, the trade volume hit USD 14 billion in the first 10 months (April-January) of 2011-12.

Of the total trade volume during the period, export accounted for USD 7.1 billion and import USD 7.3 billion. Besides natural gas, marine products, rice, minerals, beans and pulses accounted for the bulk of trade, Mizzima News reported Monday.

The government has exempted commercial tax on a number of export items such as rice, beans and pulses, corn, sesame, rubber, freshwater and saltwater products, animal products and value-added products made of timber, bamboo and rattan.

Myanmar mainly exports agricultural, mineral, forestry and finished goods, while it imports cement, agricultural machinery, motor cars and electronic devices, among others.

Myanmar’s GDP (gross domestic product) is expected to increase by about five percent in 2011-12 financial year and six percent in 2012-13 fiscal, driven by commodity exports and higher investment supported by robust credit growth and improved business confidence. (IANS)

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Department of Foreign Affairs – Secretary Del Rosario Meets Filipino Community in Myanmar
Monday, 13 February 2012 12:30 Public Information Service Unit

13 February 2012 – Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert F. Del Rosario met with the Filipino community in Myanmar on February 08 during the community dinner held at the Philippine Embassy in Yangon to welcome the Secretary.

About 100 Filipinos welcomed Secretary Del Rosario upon his arrival at the Embassy. He was formally introduced to the community by Ambassador Ma. Hellen B. De La Vega.

In his keynote speech, Secretary del Rosario highlighted the three pillars of Philippine foreign policy, focusing on the promotion and protection of overseas Filipinos. He emphasized the positive role of the Filipino community at this particular time in the country’s history when socio-economic development and reforms are underway. He also expressed appreciation for the Filipino community’s assistance and support to the victims of natural disasters in the Philippines.

Dr. Melgabar Capistrano, President of the community’s association, Pilipinas.mm, delivered a welcome message to the Secretary on behalf of the community. He shared with the Secretary the general situation of the Filipinos in Myanmar, their interests and concerns, including possibility of sending remittances to the Philippines, and resumption of direct air links.

Secretary Del Rosario pledged to work on the remittances and air service links which will benefit both countries.

The Filipino Community in Myanmar has about 362 professionals working with the United Nations and in non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The figure also includes Filipinos who are teachers, managers, engineers, architects, supervisors, entertainers and spouses of Myanmar nationals, among others.

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Asia Sentinel – Tensions between Myanmar’s Hardliners and Liberals
Written by Larry Jagan
Monday, 13 February 2012

Reform process finely balanced

Myanmar’s reform process is finely balanced between hardliners and liberals in government who continue a bitter power struggle. Change remains fragile, despite encouraging signs and growing goodwill towards President Thein Sein internationally. So far the government’s good intentions have produced only limited practical change.

The reason for that is that the liberal-minded ministers who support Thein Sein and the reform agenda are being cramped by the persistent pressure from the hardliners, led by the vice president Tin Aung Myint Oo and Htay Oo – general secretary of the Union Solidarity and Development Party, who are intent on de-railing the reform process.

Now that the campaigning is underway for the forthcoming by-elections, the impact of the behind-the-scenes power struggle is increasingly apparent. The hardliners, who control the ruling Union Solidarity and Development party know that the outcome of these elections, although will not seriously change the balance of power within parliament, it will have a major influence on what happens to reform and the delicately balanced power struggle.

For the moment there is an impasse, at least until the by-elections are over. The result of these elections may then determine the pace and extent of reform in the future. Some 20 percent of ministers are liberals and 20 percent are hardliners, with 60 percent sitting on the fence waiting to see who wins, the railways minister Aung Min – the leading liberal in the Cabinet and the President’s special envoy leading the peace process with the ethnic minorities — told foreign diplomats recently.

The by-elections will be a real test for the liberals in government as they need a free and fair election to convince the international community that they are serious about change. President Thein Sein and the speaker of the lower house, and another leading reformer, U Thura Shwe Mann, met with the chairman of the election commissioner Tin Aye met a few months ago – before Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy agree to contest — and agreed that the by-elections would be free and fair, even if it means the USDP might take a severe drubbing in the polls.

Both the President and the Speaker assured the US secretary of state Hilary Clinton that the elections would be free and fair during her visit at the beginning of December. The reformers understand how important it is that these elections are recognized as legitimate – unlike the original vote in November 2010. But the hardliners also understand that their position and influence is also intimately tied up in the outcome of the by-election vote.

So far the signs are ominous and there is growing evidence that the hardliners are trying to scupper the NLD’s campaign. Some senior USDP leaders have instructed government officials to block the NLD’s electoral campaign in any way they can. This was already evident in the obstacles created when Aung San Suu Kyi wanted to speak to her supporters in Mandalay – the EC gave her permission to speak but refused approval to use the main stadium there wanted to address the rally.

The signs that this is going to be a dirty campaign were apparent even before her first trip to the Dawei industrial zone area in southern Burma. In a clear preview of things to come, the former fisheries minister and USDP central executive member, Maung Maung Thein, warned residents in area in mid-January that if they didn’t vote for the USDP they would lose their jobs, according to sources in the area. More ominously though he instructed the local officials to make sure they manipulate the vote in same way that the November polls were rigged, senior military sources told Irrawaddy. Maung Maung Thein has considerable business interests in the area – especially in the fishing industry – though he has also been accused of colossal corruption.

The best example of the battle being waged behind the scenes is the issue of political prisoners. Although many have been freed, including the high-profile activists from the 88 students group – Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi – the Shan political leader Khun Htun Oo, the Buddhist monk U Gambira and the former prime minister and intelligence chief Khin Nyunt, the continued two-and-froing reflects the precarious position of the reformers who wanted to free them as soon as possible.

Before their release on Jan. 13, there had been hints that most of the political prisoners would be on Jan. 4 – Independence Day, and Feb. 12 – Union Day. But when only a handful of political prisoners were let out and the sentences of other prisoners reduced – there was widespread dismay amongst the liberal circles in Burma.

President Thein Sein appeared to have been cowed again by the hardliners.

Aung Min – the railways minister who has been leading the peace process and ceasefire talks with many of the rebel ethnic groups – was visibly depressed by the fresh hold-up, according to one of his close personnel friends. The speaker Shwe Mann virtually made a public apology.

The fate of the political prisoners is a microcosm of the broader power struggle that continues to dog the reform process. Although the president is the one who finally decides who will be released and when, he is constantly walking a tight-rope, trying to build a consensus around his “gentleman’s agenda” and not provoke the hardliners in his Cabinet.

Now news of what happened has emerged. At the 30 December meeting of the powerful National Defense and Security Council – the 11-member body chaired by Thein Sein and commander-in-chief of the military General Min Aung Hlaing discusses security and other major issues of national concern — the topic of the political prisoners was heatedly debated.

The country’s leading hardliner, Vice-president Tin Aung Myint Oo strongly disagreed with releasing political prisoners before the by-elections [to be held on April 1st] as they could disrupt them.

Apparently the former second most powerful general, Maung Aye has been constantly campaigning behind the scenes to prevent the political activists, including Khin Nyunt and his military intelligence officers, being freed.

U Shwe Mann – the third top military man in the old regime — has been at the forefront of trying to get the political prisoners released as soon as possible. At the meeting he argued that if the government did not keep its promise to free them, Aung San Suu Kyi and the National league for Democracy (NLD) might decide not to contest the elections.

The interior minister U Ko Ko – another former general — supported the immediate release of the prisoners.

The hardliners’ greatest fear was that the 88 group would form a party and run in the elections. So in the face of this strident opposition, the president dithered. In the end only a handful of activists were released for Independence Day; though two weeks later a significant batch of high-profile detainees including the hardliners bet noir, the 88 student leaders and Khin Nyunt. Apparently the former prime minister’s release may also have been a sop to Washington, as the US has privately been pushing for his release, behind the scenes.

President’s apparent volte-face was brought about by the reformers’ successful peace talks with the ethnic minorities, especially the Karen National Union (KNU). This emboldened Thein Sein and gave him the room to maneuver. Immediately after the KNU signed the truce and an end to hostilities with the Burmese government delegation – led by the railways minister Aung Min — on the 12th January the railways minister rang Thein Sein, according to sources at the meeting. This was what the President was waiting for; four hours later he announced the major prisoner release and signed off on freeing most of the high-profile prisoners.

That’s how fragile the situation is, stress government sources. The hardliners have been dogging the president and the liberals all along the way, making it as hard as possible for the reform process to proceed unhindered. They have been pushing for the prisoner release to be delayed until after the by-elections — or at least to keep the 88 generation student leaders and Khin Nyunt detained until after the registration of candidates. They were in fact freed shortly before that.

The favorite method of the hardliners is to quote the former military supremo Than Shwe –who has officially retired by living in a mansion not far from the president’s palace. The hardliners — especially Aung Thaung, the former industry minister and now a leading member of the ruling Union Solidarity and Development party (USDP) – continually claim that the old man would be upset by a massive prisoner release in order to dissuade the president from speeding up the process. These old reactionaries from the former regime, who were close the old man before and still see him occasionally, are at the forefront of the battle to limit reform.

Everything is now being tossed into the arena. So expect the election campaign to hot up even more before the vote on 1st April. The by-elections will undoubtedly be a test of the strength for the liberals in government and the reform process.

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Medical News Today – First Direct Evidence Of Effect Of Malaria On Fetal Growth
Article Date: 13 Feb 2012 – 1:00 PST

A study of almost 3,800 pregnancies has provided the most accurate and direct evidence to date that malaria infection reduces early foetal growth. Low birth weight is the most important risk factor for neonatal mortality in developing countries. The research, carried out on the border of Thailand and Myanmar (Burma), highlights the importance of preventing malaria in pregnancy.

According to the World Malaria Report 2011, malaria killed an estimated 655,000 people in 2010. It is caused by parasites such as Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax that are injected into the bloodstream by infected mosquitoes.

Malaria is one of the most common parasitic infections to affect pregnancy. Previous studies have suggested that infection with both P. falciparum and P. vivax malaria during pregnancy reduces birth weight whether or not maternal symptoms are present. However, these studies have been hampered by difficulties in estimating gestational age accurately and diagnosing malaria infection in early pregnancy

Now, in a study published in the open access journal PLoS One, researchers at the Shoklo Malaria Research Unit on the border of Thailand and Myanmar, part of the Wellcome Trust-Mahidol University-Oxford University Tropical Medicine Research Programme, have used ultrasound scans to provide the first direct evidence of the effect of malaria on foetal growth in pregnancies.

Antenatal ultrasound, which is essential for dating pregnancy accurately, is becoming more widely available in developing countries. The technology also allows doctors or locally trained workers to measure the diameter of the foetus’s head. For infections that occur in early pregnancy, the researchers believe that the size of the head may be the most appropriate indicator of growth restriction.

The ultrasound scans revealed that the diameter of the average foetus’s head was significantly smaller when malaria infection occurred in the first half of pregnancy when compared to pregnancies unaffected by malaria. On average, at the mid-pregnancy ultrasound scan the foetuses’ heads were 2% smaller when affected by malaria. Even a single infection of treated P. falciparum and P. vivax malaria was associated with reduced foetal head diameter, irrespective of whether the woman had shown symptoms or not.

However, although a single early detected and well-treated malaria episode had an effect on foetal head size at mid-trimester, this was not seen at delivery, suggesting that early treatment with effective drugs may allow for growth to recover later in pregnancy.

“By using antenatal ultrasound screening, we have provided clear evidence that malaria infection affects the growth of a child in the womb, even when the infection is caught early and treated. This can increase the risk of miscarriage and affect the child’s health in later life,” explains Dr Marcus Rijken, first author on the study.

“Strategies to prevent malaria in pregnancy have focused on the second half of pregnancy, when most of the foetal weight gain takes place, but our works suggests that we need to broaden our efforts to focus on the first trimester, too. We need to make sure that pregnant woman are educated about the risks of malaria in pregnancy and where possible in areas of high risk, offer preventative medication from early pregnancy onwards.”

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TwoCircles.net – Myanmar foreign trade to grow by 30 percent
Submitted by admin4 on 13 February 2012 – 9:38am
International By IANS,

Yangon : Myanmar’s foreign trade will grow by more than 30 percent to $16.1 billion in the 2011-12 fiscal year, the commerce ministry said. It was $12 billion in the previous fiscal.
Driven by increased natural gas exports, the trade volume hit $14 billion in the first 10 months (April-January) of 2011-12.

Of the total trade volume during the period, export accounted for $7.1 billion and import $7.3 billion. Besides natural gas, marine products, rice, minerals, beans and pulses accounted for the bulk of trade, Mizzima News reported Monday.

The government has exempted commercial tax on a number of export items such as rice, beans and pulses, corn, sesame, rubber, freshwater and saltwater products, animal products and value-added products made of timber, bamboo and rattan.

Myanmar mainly exports agricultural, mineral, forestry and finished goods, while it imports cement, agricultural machinery, motor cars and electronic devices, among others.

Myanmar’s GDP (gross domestic product) is expected to increase by about five percent in 2011-12 financial year and six percent in 2012-13 fiscal, driven by commodity exports and higher investment supported by robust credit growth and improved business confidence.

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Aljazeera – Ending Myanmar’s civil war
The relationship between government and ethnic minorities may be the pivotal issue blocking proper reform.
Last Modified: 13 Feb 2012 08:44

Beijing, China – In the past year, Myanmar’s government has implemented a surprising series of liberalising reforms. Facing strong environmental and labour protests by activists and NGOs, President Thein Sein has halted construction of the Chinese-backed Myitsone hydroelectric dam, which would have been one of the largest dams in the world (152m tall) and was projected to supply 3,600 to 6,000MW of electricity, largely to Yunnan Province in China.

In response to similar concerns, Thein Sein also stopped the building of a 4,000MW coal-fired power plant in the new Special Economic Zone, Dawei, where Thailand’s largest construction company, Italian-Thai, is building a deepwater port to support container shipping to compete with Singapore and China. He created a human rights commission that subsequently advocated for the release of the remaining political prisoners in the country.

Then Thein Sein released many of the remaining political prisoners in the country, including comedian Zarganar, and former prime minister Khin Nyunt. International observers, with long entrenched feelings of animosity towards Myanmar’s military rulers, may be feeling somewhat breathless.

Thinking optimistically – and there appears to be cause for optimism – the April by-elections will be truly free and fair, the government will draft sophisticated laws to attract foreign investment while accommodating domestic concerns (and officials have so far very intelligently requested technical assistance from the IMF, Singapore and the Japanese), perform well in its duties as ASEAN chair in 2014, and comply fully with AFTA (the ASEAN Free Trade Area) requirements by 2015. However, there remains a significant issue, a problem that will likely not go away unless properly dealt with.

That problem is the civil war that has been going on and off since Myanmar’s independence from the British in 1948. Myanmar is a country of diverse ethnicities, and the Bamar (after whom the country gets its other name, Burma), Kachins, Karens, Kayahs, Mons, Chins, Shans, Arakans, Mon, Wa and Pa-O are just a few. Many of these ethnic minority groups have armed factions, fighting battles with the military junta, groups such as the Karen National Union (KNU), the Shan State Army (with a South [SSA-South] and North [SSA-North] division), the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Pa-O National Organisation (PNO), the New Mon State Party (NMSP) and the United Wa State Army (UWSA).

Of the more prominent groups, SSA-South, SSA-North, Chin, NMSP and Wa have recently signed ceasefire agreements with the new government. The KIA has not, as of this writing. The government earlier declared that it had signed a ceasefire agreement with the KNU, but recently the KNU has denied it signed such an agreement. More troubling, the ceasefire between SSA-South and the government has likely been destroyed as hostilities recommenced in early February.

KNU Vice-President David Tharckabaw said that the government “wanted to show the world that the longest-running war between the government and a rebel group was over”, but the KNU “want a genuine federal system where the states will have their own autonomy”. The government is optimistic that ceasefire agreements will soon be signed with all armed ethnic groups and the issue will fade, eliminating a major obstacle to Myanmar’s drive to become the next Vietnam in terms of economic success. As always, the actual story is more complicated.

British rule

After the British won three Anglo-Burmese wars, the last being in 1885, Myanmar was called Burma by the British and divided up into the Frontier Areas and Ministerial Burma. The Frontier Areas, the periphery of the country where ethnic minorities were located, was distinct from the centrally located Ministerial Burma, the latter containing Yangon (called Rangoon by the British), the Mon and Rakhine States and the bulk of the Bamar population.

The British ruled Ministerial Burma separately from the Frontier Areas, contributing to a tradition of Western imperialists creating distinctions in conquered countries that led to longstanding armed conflicts post-independence. (To be fair, Myanmar has a rich history of separation and unification, going through several reunifications and frequent warfare among kingdoms long before British rule.)

Divides were not only drawn on ethnic lines; religious distinctions were forged as well. While Buddhism was left relatively unimpeded in Ministerial Burma, missionaries struck out into the Frontier Areas, where they converted many ethnic minorities to Christianity, notably the Karen. Further, ethnic minorities came to respect the British, with many feeling the British presence was a welcome respite from the years of kingdom warfare. The missionaries also provided education to the ethnic minorities, earning the latter’s respect. The British heavily recruited ethnic minorities into the British army. By contrast, Bamar were heavily suspicious of British rule and foreign influences.

When Aung San Suu Kyi’s father, General Aung San, returned with his Thirty Comrades, his Burma Independence Army (BIA) and the Japanese to oust the British – on the rationale that Asians should unite to fight against Western imperialism and European colonialism – pro-British ethnic minorities were seen as traitors. Former soldiers of the British Army tended to be Karens, and two Karens were stabbed with bayonets in public in front of the BIA headquarters, one allegedly for rape, one for theft, and the bodies were subsequently hacked into small pieces. A BIA unit was sent to subjugate Karens in Papun, imprisoning and massacring the elders, looting and incinerating the villages and molesting women.

The BIA unit occupying Kadaingti announced that the Japanese had licenced them to kill Christians. In Myaungmya, the BIA massacred 152 men, women and children in cold blood, set fire to a priest’s house and burned the priest and the two men who were looking after him. Aung San, horrified at the actions of the BIA, managed reconciliation with some Karen leaders, but the Karens never forgot the bloodshed, fighting the government to this day.

In light of these atrocities, ethnic minorities wanted the British to remain behind long enough for Burma to gain full independence so that the British could develop a constitution that would protect them against the Bamar. Several groups, including the Shan, Karen, Kachin and Chin, wanted separation from the union. It was here that Suu Kyi’s father, perhaps the George Washington of Myanmar – fighting off the British, then returning with the British to fight off the Japanese when the Japanese indicated their similar affinity for imperialist rule – used his substantial charisma and influence to broker a deal with the ethnic minority groups to keep the country from Balkanisation a year before independence.

A historic agreement

On February 12, 1947, General Aung San and 23 signatories from the Shan, Kachin and Chin ethnic groups signed the historic Panglong Agreement, which indicated the minorities’ interests in working with the interim government and to agree to the formation of a Union of Myanmar. Four Karen observers attended the conference, along with Mon and Arakanese representatives, but they were considered as part of Ministerial Burma and thus without a proper voice at the table. Other groups, such as the Pa-O, Palaung and Wa, were subsumed under the Shan State.

However, in reaching the agreement, Aung San made several concessions to the ethnic minority groups, which left unsettled issues of autonomy and rights of minority groups. Even then, the Karen leaders refused to agree, and remained opposed to the elections, engaging in the longest active civil war against the military, lasting 63 years, until signing a ceasefire in January 2012. Most important, Clause 5 of the Panglong Agreement stated: “Full autonomy in internal administration for the Frontier Areas is accepted in principle.”

The spirit of this clause was embodied in the right of secession granted in Myanmar’s first constitution in 1948; only the USSR has had a similar constitutional right. Indeed, the right of secession, which did not vest until ten years after ratification, played a critical role in precipitating the first military takeover (Shans and other ethnic minority groups started voicing their desire to secede around 1957), which eventually led to the permanent instalment of the junta in 1962, which ruled the country through the November 2010 elections.

This discussion is far from being merely academic. This year, the General Secretary of the Shan Democratic Union (SDU), Sai Wansai, wrote in an op-ed for the Shan Herald:
[T]he Panglong Agreement of 1947 was breached by the Burmese military regime in 1962 and also nullified the 1948 Constitution, which formed the basis of the Union of Burma… the union ceased to exist in a formal and legal sense. In other words, there is no more such a political entity called “Union of Burma”

Wansai also pointed out that Thein Sein’s government has inserted non-secession clauses in ceasefire agreements with SSA-South, UWSA, NDAA and DKBA, indication that the Panglong Agreement’s Clause 5 and the right of secession in the 1948 constitution were at the forefront of the new government’s concerns:

The conditions are: not to secede from the Union, [to] agree to non-disintegration of the Union, non-disintegration of national unity and perpetuation of national sovereignty, [to] agree to co-operate in joint economic programmes, agree to cooperate in anti-narcotics programmes, formation of political party or to contest elections, accept [the] 2008 constitution and legally amend it as necessary, and [establish] one national armed force.

While Thein Sein has managed to enter into ceasefire agreements with many ethnic minority groups, the issue is one of duration and scope, not of legality. Contractual obligations are likely only a tenuous papering over of brutal histories. Many of these soldiers have been fighting in a civil war for their entire lives. It is what they know.

As Tharckabaw said in 2010: “It’s very difficult to trust people that have been killing, displacing and abusing your people for over 60 years.” He said this year, “We felt that there are positive changes taking place that leave room for cautious optimism. Although it’s more caution than optimism.” The leader of the KIA on January 30, 2012, said that they want a formal “political dialogue” with Thein Sein’s government, not “ceasefire talks”.

Optimistic future?

The people of Myanmar and the international community want peace and prosperity for the country’s people. Nothing would be more desirable. Indeed, perhaps the most effective solution to the civil war issue is to ensure that legal and economic development improves the lives of ethnic minorities in the periphery, many of whom are devastated by poverty, just as such development improves the lives of those in the centre.

The burden falls on the government to continue to show its good faith and good works in improving and liberalising the country and the people. The international community, particularly the US and EU with their sanctions regimes, will have to continue to apply pressure on the government to continue its reforms.

A pivotal year will be 2015, when the all-important full elections take place. President Thein Sein, who has received the endorsement of Senator Mitch McConnell (a co-sponsor of the US sanctions on Myanmar) as a genuine reformer, will likely need to be re-elected, both in the national elections and by the parliament to his current presidential post. His likely successor at the moment, Thura Shwe Mann, recently delivered a reformist speech – welcome news, but there is greater uncertainty to the pace and nature of reforms with him at the helm instead of Thein Sein, not to speak of someone else entirely.

Locals have worried that Thein Sein’s removal from office could destroy the whole reform process, and they worry about reactionaries and conservatives in the government and military who might backlash against his moves in the near future.

Aung San Suu Kyi may need to step into her father’s shoes to promote peace. Acknowledging the secession issue, in 2010 she advocated for a Second Panglong agreement, which ethnic minority groups supported, an intriguing proposal. Deputy Chairman of the Shan Nationals Democratic Party, Sao Saung Cee, said then: “We support her idea to work on a second Panglong. We believe this is the only way a peaceful union in which all people come to respect and love each other can be built in Burma. Everyone in Burma will be happy if she can do it.”

Indeed, Suu Kyi’s role will likely be essential, and many in the country are worried about her well-being, one commenting that he is scared that she “will be killed like Benazir Bhutto” while campaigning, and hoping that her security detail is strong.

Perhaps, the government is taking notice of the Second Panglong idea: Aung Thaung, leader of the government’s peacemaking group, has announced that a conference similar to the Panglong conference will be held in Naypyitaw and attended by all ethnic groups. This is a hopeful sign: a Second Panglong may eventually be needed in order for all sides to come together and cement the notion in all stakeholders that Myanmar intends to rise in unison to meet the rest of the world.

Michael Lwin is a lecturer at the Peking University School of Transnational Law.  A longer version of the views expressed in this piece, How Aung San Suu Kyi Can Free Burma From Fear, is published in the Columbia Journal of Asian Law.

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The Irrawaddy – No Breakthrough in Strike Talks
By NYEIN NYEIN / THE IRRAWADDY Monday, February 13, 2012

Workers at the Chinese-owned Tai Yi Slipper factory in Rangoon’s Hlaing Tharyar Industrial Zone (3) said that they have yet to reach an agreement with their employers, despite talks on Monday that included senior government labor officials.

Today’s talks, which come a week after workers at the Tai Yi factory went on strike to demand wages deducted for an unofficial holiday to mark the Chinese New Year, were the first since the labor unrest began.

The talks brought together 38 workers’ representatives, the owner of the factory and three senior labor officials, including Chit Sein, the director general of the Department of Labor.

As the three sides met, some 1,800 workers continued their strike outside the factory.

Phoe Phyu, a lawyer who is acting as a consultant for the workers, told The Irrawaddy on Monday that no agreement was reached, and that there were no plans for further negotiations.

The workers have made 17 key demands, including an hourly pay raise from 75 kyat to 150 kyat (US $0.09-$0.18) and an increase in the monthly bonus from 6,000 kyat ($7.50) to 8,000 kyat ($10.00).

The employer has only agreed to pay 85 kyat ($0.11) per hour and 7,000 kyat ($8.75) for bonus pay.

“Those wages are not enough to cover living expenses, so the workers could not accept them,” said Phoe Phyu.

Most of the workers are young women who say they struggle to live on the wages they receive. One said that their peaceful strike would continue until the factory meets their demands.

This is not the first time that workers at the Tai Yi factory have gone on strike to demand higher wages. A strike last year lasted three days.

According to one leading worker, Chit Shein took part in talks on that occasion as well, interceding on behalf of the workers. This time, however, he didn’t do anything, the worker said.

“Last year, U Chit Shein got involved in solving the problem on the first day, but this time he waited a week,” he added.

Meanwhile, workers at the New Way factory who also went on strike last week have reached an agreement with their employer and have gone back to work.

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The Irrawaddy – EDITORIAL: Burma’s Trust Deficit
Monday, February 13, 2012

There are few national anniversaries in Burma more significant than the one it commemorated on Sunday. It was on this day 65 years ago that Burmese independence leader Aung San and his Shan, Chin and Kachin counterparts signed the Panglong Agreement, which served as the basis for the creation of a federal Union of Burma.

But Union Day is not just one of Burma’s most important occasions—it is also one of its most bizarre.

After all, a military coup that ended parliamentary rule just 15 years later also effectively nullified this historic agreement. Fifty years after taking power, the military continues to impose its own narrow notions of “unity” on the country’s many ethnic minorities.

However, the fact that Burma still marks Union Day on Feb. 12 is some cause for hope. It shows that Aung San’s vision of a federal union, which he did not live to see, remains the most viable alternative for a country that desperately needs to heal its internal divisions. Half a century of unity at gunpoint, which has left the country weak and vulnerable to exploitation by its far more powerful neighbors, has only served to underline the need to return to sounder principles.

Amid all the talk of “reforms” since last year, countless voices have chimed in about what Burma really needs in order to move forward. Generally, the West has called for free and fair elections and an end to ethnic conflict, while the rest of Asia has stressed the need for economic development through foreign investment.

While these are indeed essential to creating a peaceful and prosperous country, they will have little positive impact if one other key ingredient is missing: trust.

Trust will be the single most important factor in determining whether Burma is ready, at long last, to realize its true potential as a nation. Without it, even the progress that we have seen since last year would have been unthinkable. If opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi hadn’t decided that she could trust President Thein Sein, Burma would still be stuck in the stalemate of the past two decades.

But Burma still suffers from an enormous trust deficit. Beginning with its negation of the Panglong Agreement, and culminating with its refusal to recognize the results of Burma’s 1990 elections, the military has a long record of broken promises. Just last week, it resumed attacks on Shan rebels two months after reaching a ceasefire deal, indicating that it still sees little need to honor agreements.

On the political front, things are, at least so far, somewhat better. Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) has been able to prepare for upcoming by-elections without facing the sort of harassment it has had to deal with in the past. Moreover, a visiting UN envoy has said that Burma might allow election monitors to observe the polls—a sign that at least some in power recognize the need to win the trust of others, rather than simply demanding it.

While many still feel that the government is merely taking a calculated risk in allowing the NLD to make a comeback, in the expectation that this will lead to a lifting of sanctions, it would be making a serious mistake if it believed that this alone will be enough to save Burma’s economy. Although potential investors are now lining up for a chance to see what the country has on offer, few will stick around when they realize that it lacks any meaningful system of legal protections, as British risk assessment research company Maplecroft highlighted last week.

While Suu Kyi has often correctly stated that Burma needs to restore rule of law if it wants to develop as a nation, she has also noted that this is more than a matter of introducing new laws. Even the most enlightened laws have little value if no one has any confidence that they will be properly enforced and fairly applied.

If Burma’s rulers truly want to end the country’s disastrous isolation, they will have to begin by proving  that they can be taken at their word. This will mean going beyond the current charm offensive and taking measures to rein in elements of the military that still regard themselves as laws unto themselves.

It will also require an acknowledgment of how far the country has strayed from its founding principles,  and a firm commitment to keeping promises made to its ethnic peoples.

Without this, Burma will be hard-pressed to emerge from the past half-century of unmitigated misery.

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The Irrawaddy – NDF Feeling Vindicated by NLD About-turn
By SIMON ROUGHNEEN / THE IRRAWADDY Monday, February 13, 2012

RANGOON—For Burma’s hard-pressed political parties, small and ramshackle offices are the norm, and for the National Democratic Force (NDF), the narrow four-story house in a Rangoon suburb is no exception.

Party banners hang either side of the new Republic of the Union of Myanmar flag outside the building, a 20-minute taxi journey from the city’s downtown, but otherwise it looks just like the rest of the row of houses lined along the gravel-covered street.

Upstairs, former political prisoner and party leader Khin Maung Swe confers with colleagues about preparations for the upcoming April 1 by-election, when the party will attempt to add to its 16 seats in Burma’s Upper and Lower Houses of parliament.

Those seats were won in a November 2010 national election dismissed by most observers at the time as a farce. This time, as well as challenging the mass-membership army vehicle known as the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the NDF will compete against its mother organization, the National League for Democracy (NLD), the party which won Burma’s last free and fair election in 1990 and whose leader Aung San Suu Kyi has drawn tens of thousands of supporters on recent campaign trips to Pathein and Tavoy.

Khin Maung Swe says that the NDF can win six or seven seats out of the 48 up for grabs in the April 1 vote, hoping for roughly 50 percent return from the 13 candidates that the party will run. “We think we can win in Kachin, in Yangon, in Irrawaddy,” said Khin Maung Swe.

He says that the NLD will not sweep the board in the upcoming elections. “The USDP is giving money to farmers, promising benefits to people,” he said. “I think that even in a free vote they will take some seats.”

Controversially, the NDF split from the NLD prior to the 2010 vote, believing that despite likelihood of a rigged vote, it was better to try to work the system from the inside. “We were completely right. The NLD is now following us,” said Khin Maung Swe. “They are joining the process and running in the elections now.”

Asked if he feels vindicated by the NLD decision, and the recent reforms undertaken by the Burmese government, he said, “The Thein Sein government has to do many things to fulfill the wishes of the people, and we think we can push them better from inside the Parliament.”

One reason given by the NLD for refusing to go along with the 2010 electoral process was the country’s controversial 2008 constitution, railroaded through in a rigged plebiscite shortly after the Irrawaddy delta region was devastated by Cyclone Nargis, a disaster that killed an estimated 140,000 people.

The Constitution gives overwhelming powers to the country’s army, making it difficult to make changes without military consent. Khin Maung Swe says that the NDF and NLD are on the same page on the Constitution. “It is not democratic. It must be revised,” he said, echoing recent remarks by Aung San Suu Kyi.

Like many of Burma’s politicians, Khin Maung Swe did jail time for his political beliefs—16 and a half years in all. But it is the split with the NLD that clearly rankles more than the lost years behind bars. “I was so proud to have been chosen by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to join the CEC [Central Executive Committee] of the NLD,” he recalls, eyes cast downward as he speaks.

“With their decision to run for election, the only difference between the parties now is the logo and the flag,” he said. He confirmed that the NDF has made overtures to the NLD about re-amalgamating their parties.

However, speaking at the party’s HQ in Rangoon on Friday, NLD spokesman Ohn Kyaing told The Irrawaddy that more discussions are needed between his party and the NDF if any rapprochement is to be achieved. “They need to tell us the reasons why they broke away in the first place,” he says.

Ruefully, Khin Maung Swe says that “we have not heard back from them [NLD] about this.” He says he is hopeful, however, that after the April 1 by-election, it could be possible for the two sides to discuss their future together.

“I think you will see more changes here in Myanmar soon,” he says. His party is pushing an anti-monopoly in the country’s parliament, something he says will be vital in reforming Burma’s sclerotic, non-performing economy.

“When the government gets more confidence in the democratic process, we hope this country will be transformed,” he said. “The only way we can revise the constitution is from inside the Parliament.”

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Latecomer Burma potential ‘economic power house’
Monday, 13 February 2012 17:01
Mizzima News

(Mizzima) – If Burma makes the right investments in education and health, it can become the next “economic power house in the region,” the U.N. assistant secretary-general 2, Ajay Chhibber, told government officials on Monday.

With its strategic locations, natural resources and young work force, it has important advantages, he said.

“Despite this, Burma still sits at the lower rungs of the human development rankings for countries in the region,” he said.

“Burma has historically been a country with a good basic education system. This is illustrated by a high degree of adult literacy at 91 percent according to UN published statistics. Burma’s literacy rate is higher than that of Bangladesh (56%), India (63%), Cambodia (77%), and very close to other ASEAN countries. Despite this, Burma’s education system exhibits relatively low rates of secondary and tertiary gross enrollment ratios. For example, at 49% Burma’s secondary school enrolment is much lower than that of Indonesia (76%) or India (76%) and Vietnam (67%). The mean years of schooling in Burma were estimated to be just four years, compared with 9.5 years in Malaysia, 8.9 years in the Philippines and 7.5 years in China.”

He said the situation in the health sector for Burma is similar. “Between 1996 and 2006, the UN published data inform that under-five mortality declined from 83.7 live births to 76.1 per thousand while its infant mortality rate declined from 70.3 to 68.3 per 1000 births. Maternal Mortality also declined significantly from 420 in 1990 to 240 per 100,000 live births in 2008. Despite this progress, Burma lags behind the Asean league table in these health indicators.

“For example, Burma’s life expectancy of 65.2 years is much less than that of 75.2 in Vietnam, 74.1 in Thailand and 73.5 in China,” he said.

Since the 1980s, Asia has been growing around 7.6 percent annually, which helped lift 700 million people out of extreme poverty, he said. Available statistical sources indicate that the Burmese economy has ben growing at a moderate rate of just over 5 percent per annum in recent years, he said. “Poverty incidence has also declined in the past five years or so. Yet, the current level of poverty at 26 percent is high given the potential of the economy. Moreover, there is a huge disparity among geographic regions. Some states/regions are significantly poorer than others, such as the Chin state, with a 73 percent poverty rate.”

Access to education, sanitation, and jobs vary from rural to urban areas and from state to state. “Development experiences have shown that growth will be inclusive when it occurs in sectors where poor are employed most, such as in agriculture in the case of Burma,” he said. “Despite its vast agricultural resource base, the economic growth in Burma is increasingly relying on extractive industries. Extractive industries use capital-intensive technologies that tend to generate fewer jobs for the unskilled without linkages to the rural sector. In a country where almost 70 percent of people live in rural areas, rural development is crucial.’

Burma must develop its agriculture, agro-based industries, light industry and tourism for job creation, he said. Officials should implement
“pro-poor macroeconomic policies together with competitive and stable exchange rates to encourage investment in the tradable labour-intensive sector.”

One of the challenges in Burma is “the distortion in the foreign exchange rate market – huge difference between official and unofficial black market rate,” and development cannot take off without an integrated financial system.

A second major area of reform is in the agricultural sector. “Burma has substantial agricultural potential which has been held back by restrictions and policies,” he said. “The removal of these restrictive policies will immediately bring huge benefits to the country, by increasing its productivity, helping reduce poverty, and by increasing its exports.”

A third area that could benefit from quick reforms is the financial sector. “The new micro finance law is already a step in the right direction but more reform to increase access to finance and reduce the costs of financial intermediation is a vital key to accelerating growth and ensuring that the fruits of growth are spread more widely,” he said.

He said Burma has some advantages by being a latecomer to economic development in the region. Burma has abundant natural resources and it “must now ensure that it does not follow an environmentally destructive development strategy as some of its neighbours have done.” He cited Mongolia as a country that has recently created a Human Development Fund (HD Fund) based on its booming mineral revenue to promote human development.

“Experience shows that, effective and efficient revenue” Transparency, sound long-term development planning, strong anti-corruption laws, high civil society participation, and economic diversification are other common elements of effective management,” he said. Ensuring that the local areas where mining resources are extracted also benefit is vital to avoid conflicts, he said.

He said many first-generation Asian tigers focused exclusively on fast growth but neglected to build the social policies and social protection needed to ensure that their citizens acquire the resilience needed to manage economic and health crisis and natural disasters. “Burma has the resources to invest in increasing its resilience through social protection,” he said.

The agricultural and tourism sectors also offer tremendous economic growth areas, he said. “Burma’s underexploited coastline and its huge potential to increase the value added of its exports are a benefit of a latecomer,” he said.

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Mizzima News – Now is time to invest in health, education: Nambiar
Monday, 13 February 2012 15:36
Mizzima News

(Mizzima) – The special adviser to the U.N. secretary-general told Burmese officials on Monday that more support for health and education programs is crucial for sustained development in Burma.

During a development conference in Naypyitaw, Vijay Nambiar told government officials and expert panelists that health and education are vital to human fulfillment and dignity.

“They are crucial for fuelling innovation and growth,” he said. “Investing in people is therefore not an option – it is a precondition for any government to deliver on society’s needs and to compete in today’s economy.”

Many countries in the region, including Burma, are facing “a youth bulge,” he said. “If well managed, investing in youth can yield great dividends for building a sound political and economic system… . But if action to meet their needs and aspirations is not taken urgently, prospects for social peace and economic prosperity may suffer.” He said development is not sustainable “unless it is equitable.”

“In Burma, this entails equal access for all peoples in both central and border regions. Investment in development is also the best prevention against social strife,” he said. “Both state and society therefore have a stake in improving living standards as necessary conditions for the country’s unity and progress.”

He noted that during the past year since President Thein Sein’s began a series of reforms that great progress has been made in many areas, but three ingredients are now needed to keep reforms on track: participation by a wide cross-section of the public; partnership with the private sector, civil society and academia; and working with regional and international bodies, including the U.N.

“An engaged society can help the government improve policy-making, reflect the people’s legitimate interests and – as the President has noted – help ‘guarantee fundamental rights of citizens” in the process,” Nambiar said.

Citing various U.N. human development programs, he said, “It is possible to multiply national efforts in a way that would not be achievable without such partnerships. Combining the UN’s convening authority and technical resources with the various strengths of government, business and civil society, can be a formidable force for good.”

Nambiar said this is the moment for Burma “to make use of the U.N.’s unique services – from facilitation and technical assistance to capacity-building and policy advice – in the political, humanitarian and development spheres. Solidarity also depends on resources.”

A tight budget and the current economic crisis is no excuse for inaction, he said, and “Better national budget allocations and coordinated donor support can make a significant difference.”

“The government’s new budget plan to reorient and increase spending to health and education is both necessary and welcome,” he said. “No government can afford to shy away from such responsibilities. The budgetary priorities and allocations made by the government and Parliament will be an early test of Burma’s commitment to reform.”

He urged government officials to implement reforms in health and education “to serve its people better and build the economic conditions for durable peace and stability.”

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Mizzima News – Dunkley talks about his arrest, changes in Burma
Monday, 13 February 2012 13:20
Mizzima News

(Mizzima) – The Australian publisher of The Myanmar Times, Ross Dunkley, was interviewed last week about the political changes in Burma and his role now on the English-language newspaper.

“I’m back to normal” as editor of the newspaper, Dunkley told the Australian Broadcasting Company in a wide-ranging interview.

Dunkley, who has worked in Burma for 10 years, said he was appealing one minor conviction and an immigration violation.

Rumours circulated widely that the publisher was “set up” by someone in government regarding incidents between him and a Burmese woman.

“Oh, look, there’s many different rumours that float around about that,” he said, “but there can be no doubt that someone was trying to interfere in the process. I think it’s too much of a coincidence to assume otherwise.”

Dunkley told the broadcasting service that he was not a saint and because of his position, he lived his life in a semi-public way “out in the open. So I guess you get warts and all.” Dunkley is the subject of an ABC documentary “Dancing with Dictators.”

“I mean, I knew from a long time ago, well before I was arrested, that there were people out to get me,” he said. “There was no doubt about that. I saw that coming.” He said earlier he had received a letter from a government minister that said he was no longer trustworthy.

He said 47 days in Insein Prison wasn’t too harsh, and because he was well known many people looked after him, but the prison was overcrowded.

“In my cell block there’s – there were nine rooms, each room about 110 people, so that’s more than 1,000 people per block. I think that you’ve probably got no more than, you know, a couple of square metres, enough to lie down with your bedding at night time and otherwise you’re pretty crowded up together in what is fairly hot circumstances.”

A founder of the Myanmar Times, Dunkley was accused of violating the Immigration Act and assaulting a woman. He was arrested on February 10, 2011.

His high-profile case attracted worldwide interest in the media community. Dunkley is also the publisher of the The Phnom Penh Post, and prior to working in Burma worked in journalism in Hanoi.

Originally from Perth, Australia, Dunkley was the first foreigner to enter the Burmese domestic newspaper market in 2000 when he joined forces with Sonny Shwe, the son of a close ally of then military intelligence chief and junta prime minister, Khin Nyunt. Less than a year after Khin Nyunt’s purging from the military junta, Sonny Shwe was arrested and new Burmese co-owners took over his stake in the paper.

Dunkley told ABC that coming to Burma and working under the military junta was “a lot more smoother than I anticipated it to be.” He began working in Burma, he said, without kowtowing to the government, but he had to follow their rules “to get in the playing field.”

“I think you have to be there at the very minimum to be able to institute change,” he told the ABC interviewer.

He strongly defended his newspaper staff, rebutting people who said he had no chance working under Burma’s tight censorship rules prior to publication. They said, “’Oh, you had no chance with them because they had the red pen out at all times.’ Well, maybe sometimes the red pen was put away on occasions when perhaps it should have been out, and I think that that was the ability of our staff to push the envelope forward and to train people about the role of media.

“We’ve always attempted to tell the truth and we’ve always told the story as we see it and the censors cut it. We don’t alter our copy or alter our articles because of the censor. We only write as we see it and then if the red pen comes out, it has to run like that,” he told the interviewer.

Progress may be “only incremental and it’s only a little bit, but every time you do it, you – it’s a small victory for you. That’s not to say that it doesn’t hurt every time someone cuts the red – puts the red pen and crosses out the story. It’s like a knife in your guts. That feeling doesn’t go away.”

He said he never had close ties with government officials.

“I mean, I had no friendships inside the government at all. So, I operated almost completely independently,” he said.

Regarding people who believe that the recent democratic changes in Burma are a well-crafted tactic that will lead to continued control by former generals, Dunkley said the current changes are continued steps in a process that has been underway for a long time.

“The fact is that this is their country, they’ve made a decision to move in this direction, and it wasn’t an instant decision,” he said. “It was – these motions were put in place a long, long time ago. There was a seven-step road to democracy going back six or seven years. This is no surprise.

“It always was going to move that way. It’s just that the suddenness of the change, the rapidity of the change and the breadth of the change is what has surprised a lot of people.”

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DVB News – ASEAN chief warns of reform ‘exploitation’
By FRANCIS WADE
Published: 13 February 2012

Burma risks being exploited by foreign investors keen to plant an early stake in the country as it transitions away from military rule, the head of the regional ASEAN bloc has warned prior to a visit there next week.

Surin Pitsuwan, who is nearing the end of his tenure as secretary general of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, will travel to Burma on 20 February. There he will assess the quality of change in the country, which is due to take the ASEAN chair in 2014.

But in an interview with the Myanmar Times, he said that unless properly managed, a looming rush for Burma’s riches by overseas companies risks bringing “more inequality and more disruption”.

“I’m worried about all these people who are already gathering in Bangkok and Singapore and who are bent on exploiting Myanmar’s [Burma’s] resources and opportunities,” he told the paper.

“We have to ensure that there is a human face to the management of the country’s resources and opportunities. The entrepreneurial spirit must not overshadow the need for schools, hospitals, utilities, clean water and so on.”

Burma has vast natural energy capabilities, including gas and hydropower, but scant legal mechanisms to monitor or avoid any harm to the local environment and communities.

Many focal points for energy investment are in the border regions, which have bountiful hydropower potential but which are home to ethnic minority populations that for long have been denied the profits from these projects. Moreover, thousands have been displaced to make way for large-scale dam developments and to clear routes for oil and gas pipelines.

Kraisak Choonhavan, vice president of the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Myanmar Caucus (AIPMC), said that competition for these resources would increase as Burma enacts various economic reforms aimed at making it a safer and less controversial investment environment.

He warned however that there is “great concern” for ethnic groups, and huge tasks ahead to prevent Burma from the threat of being “swallowed up by global capitalism”. He pointed to Nigeria as an example of how a wealth of energy can be disastrous for the local population.

“Poverty there is mind boggling. [In Nigeria] you have what we call a weak government, and I don’t want to see Burma become like that. It’s all about whether it [the government] is socially and environmentally conscious – that is how long-term investment will benefit the country.”

Burma’s chairing of ASEAN will come a year before the 2015 target for full economic integration of the bloc, but analysts have expressed concern that allowing in a country whose own economic and governance record has been so tainted by decades of military rule will be an over-ambitious challenge.

Others say however that the prospect of chairing the bloc could spur the reform process, given the humiliation for Burma if by 2014 it still holds hundreds of political prisoners and abuses by the military against civilians continue.

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DVB News – Student army latest to join peace talks
By PETER AUNG
Published: 13 February 2012

A group of one-time students who fled to the jungle and took up arms following the 1988 uprising in Burma says it has met with government officials across the border in Thailand for talks that could pave the way for a ceasefire.

Representatives from the All Burma Students’ Democratic Front (ABSDF) say they will move on to the next step after negotiations in the Thai town of Mae Sot last week. Myo Win, deputy chairman of the group, said union-level talks would follow in Rangoon, although no date has been set.

“We were able to have a forthright discussion and raised opinions that we both agreed upon – from here, we hope that we will get the chance to find an answer to the issues [obstructing] peace making, the ceasefire and political problems.”

At its peak in the 1990s the group had around 10,000 members, and waged guerrilla warfare against the Burmese army largely from the mountains of Karen state in Burma’s east.

The ABSDF has been linked with the Karen struggle ever since its formation in 1988, when thousands of students fled to the jungle and were sheltered by the Karen National Union.

A split in the early 1990s presaged its decline, but last year the group announced it would again fight alongside the KNU against the government.

But the installation of a quasi-civilian government following elections in 2010 has led to attempts by Naypyidaw to broker peace in the border regions. Both the KNU and the Shan State Army have held ceasefires talks that appeared to net something of a result, although fighting has continued.

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DVB News – As confidence grows, the regime’s vice-like grip loosens
By CLIVE PARKER
Published: 13 February 2012

Among the small but growing number of foreign journalists that nervously gathered at the eastern end of Rangoon’s University Avenue Road on 12 November 2010, there were two distinct schools of thought: the first said every one of them would be rounded up, yelled at by a high-ranking police officials backed by plain-clothes spooks and promptly dispatched to the airport to catch the first plane to Bangkok. The second argued the exact opposite – that at this particularly time foreign journalists were, for once, welcome in Burma.

Had the government preferred to expel this couple of dozen foreign journalists during the period of Aung San Suu Kyi’s release it would have done, but it didn’t. So despite efforts by the BBC’s John Simpson to sex up his subsequent interview with Suu Kyi, putting the footage in one car and himself in the other before heading straight to the airport, the truth is there was little or no threat. For the regime, releasing its archenemy was a good news story and it wanted the world to know about it.

A similar process is happening now. Enter the words Burma or Myanmar into Google News and the result is a list of headlines littered with words such as ‘reform’, ‘change’ and ‘democracy’.

Inside the country it is little different. Not so long ago the prospect of The Irrawaddy’s exiled editor Aung Zaw visiting Burma, or a political prisoner staring out from the front page of a news journal, or representatives of the BBC or VOA taking part in a media workshop in Rangoon, would have been unthinkable. Yet all have happened in the past few weeks.

So is this the end of more than half a century of censorship in Burma? That depends on just how comfortable this increasingly confident regime feels and what threats it fears remain. In every single country that implements censorship the reason for doing so is always the same – to prevent the spread of information deemed a threat.

Only when that threat is diminished or ceases to exist do governments ease censorship, such as in England at the end of both the first and second world wars when there was no longer an enemy to take advantage of perceived military secrets. Or in South Korea in 1987 when the new government saw press liberalisation as a means to fend off the threat posed by seemingly endless demonstrations.

In Burma, while the regime apparently feels confident a number of its chief threats have waned, others still remain. This is clearly demonstrated by the government’s current policy on censorship which, far from being rigidly codified in theory, is in practice as fluid as the political tides of the time.

In a video conference organised by the US council on Foreign Relations at the end of November, Suu Kyi picked apart what had become acceptable in new Burma’s rapidly evolving public sphere. In negotiating with the authorities the publication of some of her writings, it was decided the term ‘political prisoners’ at that time was still unacceptable. Could the simple term ‘prisoners’ be used instead, the censors wondered? Suu Kyi replied this was not acceptable because she was referring specifically to people put in prison for their political views. Eventually, the term ‘prisoners of conscience’ was deemed suitable by both sides.

Two months later, after the regime released a wave of political prisoners and journalists, including a number from DVB, their images appeared on the front pages of Burmese journals including The Messenger. For the regime, it was the latest of an ever-growing number of good news stories it wanted people inside and outside the country to know about. Threats to the regime remain, however, and these remain off limits in the Burmese press.

Censors in recent weeks have continued to block any reference to the extent to which the November 2010 elections fell below international standards or criticism of the 2008 constitution. For the Burmese government, these two subjects remain the foundation – however flawed – on which it has managed to annul the results of its landslide election loss in 1990 and reverse this loss with a heavily criticised win of equal proportions 20 years later. The truth that Burma’s path to democracy originates with a process of wholly undemocratic proportions remains the main threat to the legitimacy of the new nominally civilian government.

The other main thorn in the regime’s side is, of course, Suu Kyi but the nature of this threat has altered significantly and can at times be used as an opportunity, especially in the current climate of positivity.

With Suu Kyi’s 1990 election win officially annulled and the process of a stage-managed transition to democracy all but complete, her threat has changed into one which is much more easily contained. Having been married to a foreigner she cannot assume power, according to the new constitution, and so the government is happy for her and the NLD to contest April’s by-election for a fraction of the available seats in parliament. This will surely lead to further praise from the international community and depends on the likes of the US, EU and the UN knowing about it as far and wide as possible, which is where the media comes in.

While the government’s mouthpiece the New Light of Myanmar no longer feels it necessary to run crude propaganda pieces criticising opponents of the regime, it still feels much more comfortable running articles on failed interventions in places like Afghanistan than it does human rights violators under scrutiny. While the crackdown on the Syrian uprising has dominated headlines across the world, not a single mention of the violence there has made it into Burma’s state-run press. Similarly, no mention has been made of China and Russia coming to Syria’s rescue in the UN Security Council, a situation the Burmese regime itself faced almost exactly five years ago.

The much celebrated press law currently under consideration by the government and due for discussion in parliament later this year will surely consider all these threats and opportunities in defining the parameters of what can and cannot appear in Burma’s rapidly reforming public domain. Given the recent confidence demonstrated by President Thein Sein’s government, Burma’s media, public and the international community have every reason to expect something approaching freedom of the press.

Clive Parker is a freelance journalist and has worked as a reporter at The Myanmar Times and The Irrawaddy.

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