AP – Suu Kyi registers for seat in Myanmar’s Parliament
AFP – Myanmar’s Suu Kyi launches bid for parliament
AFP – Myanmar old guard adapt to new life as lawmakers
BusinessWeek – Myanmar Buoyed by $8.6 Billion Port as Sanctions Abate: Freight
Bloomberg – Myanmar Feeds Asia Trade With $8.6 Billion Port as U.S. Ties Thaw: Freight
Manila Bulletin – Myanmar changing?
The Nation – Burma sends peace delegation to end northern ethnic conflict
Al Jazeera – Myanmar: What is in it for the US?
Deutsche Welle – Burmese refugees stuck in Thailand hold hope after rebel ceasefire
Calcutta News – India to scale up ties with democratic Myanmar
Council on Foreign Relations (blog) – Myanmar: the Next Asian Tiger Cub Economy?
New York Times (blog) – Turning Off the Dark in Myanmar?
The Diplomat – The January Spring
Korea JoongAng Daily – [Viewpoint] Pyongyang may be ready for change
The Irrawaddy – Myanmar: On Claiming Success
The Irrawaddy – Burma’s Hip Hop Singer Stands for By-Election Seat
The Irrawaddy – No More Coups in Burma, Says Shwe Mann
The Irrawaddy – Govt Hints at Release of KNU Leader
Mizzima News – KNU seeks release of KNU-connected prisoners
Mizzima News – Burma tourism ready to takeoff?
Mizzima News – China now No. 1 investor in Burma
DVB News – Party alliance faces fight against NLD
DVB News – Student army laments jailed members
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Suu Kyi registers for seat in Myanmar’s Parliament
By Aye Aye Win, Associated Press | Associated Press – 3 hours ago

THANLYIN, Myanmar (AP) — Ecstatic cheers of “Long Live Aung San Suu Kyi!” echoed through the streets of this impoverished Yangon suburb Wednesday as she registered for elections, a sign of how vastly Myanmar has changed since the junta gave up power after decades of iron-fisted rule.

Throngs of flag-waving supporters crowded the local election office to shout support and glimpse the 66-year-old Nobel Peace laureate, who became Myanmar’s most recognizable face during years of house arrest under authoritarian rule.

The scene would have been unthinkable while the junta still ruled. It despised Suu Kyi because of her popularity and any public support for her was swiftly and firmly halted.

The freedom allowed to Suu Kyi’s supporters is another sign that the country’s elected but military-backed government is keeping promises for democratic reforms — a key condition of the West before lifting sanctions.

Since taking office in March, the government has released hundreds of prominent political prisoners, signed cease-fires with ethnic rebels, increased press freedoms and opened a dialogue with Suu Kyi herself.

Even if her political party wins all 48 seats to be contested in by-elections April 1, it will have minimal power. The 440-seat lower house of Parliament is heavily weighted with military appointees and allies of the former junta.

But a victory would be historic. It would give the longtime political prisoner a voice in Parliament for the first time after decades as the country’s opposition leader.

Suu Kyi registered to run for a seat representing Kawhmu, a poor district south of Yangon where villagers’ livelihoods were devastated by Cyclone Nargis in 2008. Many in the crowds that greeted her at the Election Commission office in Thanlyin wore Suu Kyi T-shirts.

Suu Kyi paraphernalia has proliferated in recent months with vendors hawking photographs, key chains and calendars with her image, seen as another testament to the country’s breakneck pace of change.

The Election Commission must still accept Suu Kyi’s candidacy, a ruling expected to come next month. Her party has so far chosen 44 candidates to contest the 48 seats vacated by lawmakers who became Cabinet ministers.

Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy party won a landslide victory in 1990 elections but was denied power by the military junta. Myanmar’s next elections didn’t come for 20 years, but Suu Kyi was under house arrest and her party boycotted due to what they called unfair and undemocratic rules.

Reforms since that election in 2010 have drawn Suu Kyi and her party back into mainstream politics and won international praise and measured diplomatic support.

The United States is upgrading diplomatic relations and sending an ambassador to Myanmar for the first time in two decades.

The severe international sanctions that restrict Myanmar’s trade and the travel and financial transactions of the former junta’s inner circle mostly remain, as countries monitor how the April vote is conducted and weigh other considerations.

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Myanmar’s Suu Kyi launches bid for parliament
By Soe Than Win | AFP – 7 hrs ago

Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi launched her historic bid for a seat in parliament Wednesday in the latest sign of change in the country after the end of decades of outright military rule.

The Nobel Peace Prize winner is standing in April 1 by-elections seen as a major test of the regime’s reform credentials following a surprising series of conciliatory gestures by the new nominally civilian government.

The pro-democracy icon submitted her registration to stand in a rural constituency in Kawhmu near Yangon, an area devastated by Cyclone Nargis in 2008, to the delight of crowds of supporters waiting outside.

“Aung San Suu Kyi was the first member of the NLD to register. She’s going to run for the lower house,” a senior party official, Win Htein, told AFP.

The 66-year-old’s National League for Democracy (NLD) party has already been given approval to return to the official political arena, against a backdrop of budding reforms including dialogue between the regime and the opposition.

The NLD was stripped of its status as a legal political party in 2010 because it boycotted a controversial national election, saying the rules were unfair.

Suu Kyi was released from years of house arrest shortly after the vote, which was marred by complaints of cheating and easily won by the military’s allies.

A quarter of parliament’s seats are now taken up by unelected military officials while the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which is packed with former military men, holds about 80 percent of the remainder.

Since coming to power in March, the new military-backed government dominated by former generals has made a series of reformist moves in an apparent attempt to reach out to political opponents and the West.

These included releasing hundreds of political prisoners, suspending construction of an unpopular mega-dam and pursuing peace deals with armed ethnic minority rebels.

The NLD won an election in 1990 by a landslide, while Suu Kyi remained under house arrest, but the ruling generals never allowed the party to take power.

A total of 48 seats are up for grabs in the April vote — not enough to threaten the resounding majority held by the ruling party. But the participation ofSuu Kyi would give a boost to the legislature’s credibility.

A top regime figure told AFP on Monday that Myanmar has “no other way” but to embrace democracy, and promised that the April poll would be democratic.

“I guarantee the elections will be free and fair,” said lower house speaker Shwe Mann.

Suu Kyi hinted at the weekend that she could take a position in the government but said it “depends on the circumstances”.

The April vote is to fill places vacated by those elected in the 2010 polls who have since become ministers and deputy ministers in the government.

Myanmar’s government released about 300 political prisoners in its latest amnesty on Friday, prompting the United States to move to restore full diplomatic ties for the first time in more than two decades.

The top Republican in the US Senate said Tuesday the regime was serious about change and voiced openness for an eventual lifting of the sanctions which he has long championed if Suu Kyi believed it was the right course.

“We are open to it,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told AFP by telephone after talks with key regime figures in the capital Naypyidaw, describing the change of direction in Myanmar as “quite remarkable”.

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Myanmar old guard adapt to new life as lawmakers
By Didier Lauras | AFP News – 6 hours ago

Two years ago they were military officials. Today some sit in uniform in Myanmar’s parliament while others have donned civilian attire to become lawmakers. For all, it’s time to learn a new job.

After almost half a century of outright military rule, the country formerly known as Burma has since March 2011 been governed by a new nominally civilian administration with a twin-chamber national parliament.

But what the Naypyidaw regime and the West describe as “reform” is nothing less than a revolution for the former military personnel turned ruling party parliamentarians who dominate the fledgling assemblies.

Legislative debate, voting and the shuttle of bills between the two chambers are all completely new experiences for the novice lawmakers.

A year after parliament opened, they are still not up to full speed.

“It’s very difficult,” confesses one lawmaker who did not want to be named, on the steps of one of many buildings that make up the sprawling parliament complex in the showcase capital Naypyidaw.

The parliamentarian, with the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), dominated by former generals and their allies, says he read several books on democracy when he was a student.

“We need (foreign countries) to send some scholars to our institutions,” admits the lawmaker, who was attending parliament during the legislative break to join a meeting with France’s visiting foreign minister.

Despite the steep learning curve, parliament has passed significant legislation including bills allowing citizens to protest peacefully if they have permission and giving workers the right to strike.

The next session of parliament opens on January 26 with an immense task: the budget.

A quarter of the seats in the parliament were reserved for the military even before the November 2010 elections, and the USDP holds about 80 percent of the remainder.

Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) party has no voice in parliament because it boycotted the ballot, largely because of rules that would have forced it to expel imprisoned members.

But the Nobel laureate and her party plan to contest an April 1 by-election in which 48 seats are up for grabs, although that is not enough to threaten the ruling party’s resounding majority.

The vast parliament complex is dotted with about 30 palatial buildings.

The driveways are empty, with no signs. The concrete architecture is massive, with roofs evoking traditional Burmese buildings and decorated with three thin yellow, red and green lines — the colour of the national flag.

On arriving, a lawmaker in civilian clothes gives a discreet salute to the security guards — old habits die hard.

And in the meeting room, parliamentarians stand to attention to listen to lower house speaker Shwe Mann give his instructions.

The former general, who was the junta number three until last year and is a close ally of previous ruler Than Shwe, shed his military uniform in 2010.

But he remains, according to analysts, a key regime figure, and staunchly defends the role of the parliament.

“We need to establish an institution that is strong and sustainable,” he told AFP in an exclusive interview, playing down concerns that the military might attempt to seize back power.
“If parliament is strong and sustainable, there is going to be no coup,” he said.

For the lawmakers, the learning experience is not all plain sailing. During the previous sessions, dissent between the two rooms created moments of panic, with some at the time describing the situation as a constitutional crisis.

“That’s democracy. It’s admirable!” said Soe Yin, a former rector of the University of Yangon who is now a USDP parliamentarian. “We need to disagree on disagreement.”

“In the army, there is no argument. You have to obey the command because you have to fight the enemy… Don’t disagree, ever. But in parliament you have the right to argue.”

Even the unelected military officers in parliament appear to have developed a taste for the exercise.

One army captain dared to propose and vote for an amendment modifying a bill submitted by the home affairs minister, a more senior general, according to a government official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“Even voting is not always along party lines. Sometimes, some USDP members vote for other parties,” he said, adding that one day the military will disappear from parliament altogether.

“Now they are working together with the civilian government. After a few years they will withdraw from politics.”

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BusinessWeek – Myanmar Buoyed by $8.6 Billion Port as Sanctions Abate: Freight
January 18, 2012, 12:26 PM EST
By Daniel Ten Kate

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) — Myanmar is developing an $8.6 billion port and industrial complex in the nation’s south intended to feed Asian demand as the U.S. and Europe lay out a path to ease sanctions in place for more than 20 years.

Italian-Thai Development Co., the largest construction company in Thailand, completed an access road last year from the Thai border to Dawei, about 250 kilometers (155 miles) west of Bangkok. The company plans to complete financing this year for the harbor, which with the industrial zone will cover an area 16 times bigger than Thailand’s largest manufacturing park.

“What makes Dawei interesting is Myanmar itself,” said Thanet Sorat, who heads a trade facilitation body at the Federation of Thai Industries, the country’s biggest industry group. “It was closed for so long and now the government is more open. Thai companies see many opportunities there due to cheap labor costs and many natural resources.”

The Dawei initiative highlights Myanmar’s efforts to connect one of Asia’s poorest nations to a region driving global growth. Myanmar has freed political prisoners and signed a peace agreement with rebels, seeking to prompt the U.S. and the European Union to lift economic sanctions.

Italian-Thai shares, which fell 22 percent last year, are poised to recover as the Dawei project advances, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, an analyst with UOB-Kay Hian Securities (Thailand) Pcl, wrote in a report yesterday. PTT Pcl, PTT Exploration & Production Pcl, Hemaraj Land & Development Pcl and Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Pcl are
among other listed Thai companies set to benefit, he said.

‘Opening Up’

Siam Cement Pcl, Thailand’s fifth-biggest company by market value, also probably will gain assuming the project proceeds as planned, said Adithep Vanabriksha, who oversees about $4.5 billion of Thai assets for Aberdeen Asset Management.

“Myanmar’s on the verge of opening up and Thai companies are likely to benefit given our proximity,” said Bangkok-based Adithep. “They’re going to need a lot of construction materials, a lot of cement.”

Myanmar President Thein Sein discussed the Dawei project at a December meeting with Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who sent several cabinet ministers to inspect the site on Jan. 7. Bangkok-based Italian-Thai signed a 60-year concession to develop Dawei 14 months ago.

Industrial Hub?

Executives from Bangkok Bank Pcl, Krung Thai Bank Pcl and Siam Commercial Bank Pcl joined the ministers on the visit to Dawei this month, according to Somchet Thinaphong, managing director of the Dawei Development Co., an Italian-Thai unit. Among the potential investors he listed were Malaysia’s Petroliam Nasional Bhd., known as Petronas, and Japanese companies Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsui & Co. and Sumitomo Corp.

“All our experts and all the technical people from Thailand and Myanmar believe Dawei can be a new industrial hub,” Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul, who was on the trip, told reporters on Dec. 21.

Japanese manufacturers are interested in using Dawei to make parts that can supply factories in Thailand, which automakers Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. use as a production base, said Somchet, who is overseeing the project.

Japan will try to help finance the Dawei port if it can reach a deal on the former military dictatorship’s “huge” outstanding debt, Kimihiro Ishikane, a foreign ministry official, told reporters in Bali on Nov. 16. Myanmar is a “crucially important” part of Japan’s plans to try and reduce costs for its companies operating in the region, he said.

ASEAN Landscape

“This is a project that will help change the ASEAN landscape,” Somchet said, referring to the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which has a market of almost 600 million people. “We are establishing an industrial hub where raw materials will flow” to China, India and Japan.

To be sure, Myanmar has recently put two electricity projects on hold due to opposition from environmentalists. One of them is a 4,000-megawatt coal-fired power project in Dawei that Italian-Thai agreed to build with Ratchaburi. In September, Thein Sein halted construction of a Chinese-backed $3.6 billion hydropower station.

The moves underscored the investment risks stemming from Myanmar’s 14-month-old transition toward democracy, a process on which the lifting of sanctions is conditioned. The country is viewed as the most corrupt after North Korea and Somalia in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index.

The Dawei project is “still far from reality,” DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co. said in a Jan. 16 report. “Despite potential to bring economic prosperity to Burma, the project is still in its infancy and clouded with risks.”

Steel Mill

Italian-Thai is wooing banks to lend $12.5 billion for the development as well as to invest in an integrated steel mill, an oil, gas and petrochemical complex and fertilizer plants. It expects to gain income from selling land and acting as the main contractor on the project’s infrastructure, including a more than 100-kilometer road from Dawei to the Thai border.

Thein Sein took power last year after a general election in 2010 that ended half of a century of military rule. In addition to releasing hundreds of political prisoners and signing the cease-fire with the country’s largest armed rebel group, he has sought dialogue with democracy advocate Aung San Suu Kyi.

The U.S. and U.K. have pledged to ease sanctions if he takes additional steps to reduce political repression and demonstrates the changes will last. Standard Chartered Plc and General Electric Co. are among those seeking to invest in Myanmar after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton last month completed the highest-level U.S. visit to the nation in more than five decades.

‘Strategic Location’

China and India share more than 3,600 kilometers of border with Myanmar, whose 64 million people earn an average of just $2.25 per day, according to International Monetary Fund estimates. Both nations have sought increased access to the resource-rich nation’s reserves of natural gas.

“Myanmar can become a regional hub for some sectors,” Nay Zin Latt, an adviser to Thein Sein, said in an e-mail. “Our strategic location will attract investors. Goods and commodities will move in and out more conveniently with a lower cost, making us more competitive.”

Gas sales and better freight links with China, India and the rest of Southeast Asia may enable Myanmar to boost gross domestic product growth, which IMF data shows averaged 4.9 percent per year during 2008 through 2011.

Gas Rich

Natural gas production in Myanmar has almost quadrupled in the past decade to 12.1 billion cubic meters in 2010. That is equivalent to about one-eighth the output of China, Asia- Pacific’s biggest producer, according to the BP Statistical Review. Gas sales to neighboring Thailand have made it Myanmar’s top trading partner.

“The Dawei port will focus on petrochemicals, not containers,” said Ruth Banomyong, an assistant professor at Bangkok’s Thammasat University who has studied logistics in the region for the Asian Development Bank. “It will be more of an industrial port, with gas and petroleum products.”

Maersk Line Ltd. will look to do more business in Myanmar if the nation opens up to the international community, said Thomas Knudsen, chief executive officer of Asian operations at Maersk Line, a unit of Copenhagen-based A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S, the world’s biggest container shipper.

The deep-sea port will be able to handle more than 200 million tons of cargo when completed, according to Italian-Thai. That compares with 47 million tons of cargo that passed through Laem Chabang, Thailand’s biggest port, in 2009, Port Authority statistics show.

“Clearly the port could start to grow,” Maersk’s Knudsen said, referring to Dawei. “We’ve seen that in other parts of the world when you’ve got the combination of a deepwater port and zones for manufacturing.”

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Bloomberg – Myanmar Feeds Asia Trade With $8.6 Billion Port as U.S. Ties Thaw: Freight
By Daniel Ten Kate – Jan 17, 2012 10:00 AM PT

Myanmar is developing an $8.6 billion port and industrial complex in the nation’s south intended to feed Asian demand as the U.S. and Europe lay out a path to ease sanctions in place for more than 20 years.

Italian-Thai Development Co. (ITD), the largest construction company in Thailand, completed an access road last year from the Thai border to Dawei, about 250 kilometers (155 miles) west of Bangkok. The company plans to complete financing this year for the harbor, which with the industrial zone will cover an area 16 times bigger than Thailand’s largest manufacturing park.

“What makes Dawei interesting is Myanmar itself,” said Thanet Sorat, who heads a trade facilitation body at the Federation of Thai Industries, the country’s biggest industry group. “It was closed for so long and now the government is more open. Thai companies see many opportunities there due to cheap labor costs and many natural resources.”

The Dawei initiative highlights Myanmar’s efforts to connect one of Asia’s poorest nations to a region driving global growth. Myanmar has freed political prisoners and signed a peace agreement with rebels, seeking to prompt the U.S. and the European Union to lift economic sanctions.

Italian-Thai shares, which fell 22 percent last year, are poised to recover as the Dawei project advances, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, an analyst with UOB-Kay Hian Securities (Thailand) Pcl, wrote in a report yesterday. PTT Pcl (PTT), PTT Exploration & Production Pcl, Hemaraj Land & Development Pcl and Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Pcl (RATCH) are among other listed Thai companies set to benefit, he said.

‘Opening Up’

Siam Cement Pcl (SCC), Thailand’s fifth-biggest company by market value, also probably will gain assuming the project proceeds as planned, said Adithep Vanabriksha, who oversees about $4.5 billion of Thai assets for Aberdeen Asset Management.

“Myanmar’s on the verge of opening up and Thai companies are likely to benefit given our proximity,” said Bangkok-based Adithep. “They’re going to need a lot of construction materials, a lot of cement.”

Myanmar President Thein Sein discussed the Dawei project at a December meeting with Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who sent several cabinet ministers to inspect the site on Jan. 7. Bangkok-based Italian-Thai signed a 60-year concession to develop Dawei 14 months ago.

Industrial Hub?

Executives from Bangkok Bank Pcl (BBL), Krung Thai Bank Pcl (KTB) and Siam Commercial Bank Pcl (SCB) joined the ministers on the visit to Dawei this month, according to Somchet Thinaphong, managing director of the Dawei Development Co., an Italian-Thai unit. Among the potential investors he listed were Malaysia’s Petroliam Nasional Bhd. (PET), known as Petronas, and Japanese companies Mitsubishi Corp. (8058), Mitsui & Co. and Sumitomo Corp. (8053)

“All our experts and all the technical people from Thailand and Myanmar believe Dawei can be a new industrial hub,” Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul, who was on the trip, told reporters on Dec. 21.

Japanese manufacturers are interested in using Dawei to make parts that can supply factories in Thailand, which automakers Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) and Honda Motor Co. (7267) use as a production base, said Somchet, who is overseeing the project.

Japan will try to help finance the Dawei port if it can reach a deal on the former military dictatorship’s “huge” outstanding debt, Kimihiro Ishikane, a foreign ministry official, told reporters in Bali on Nov. 16. Myanmar is a “crucially important” part of Japan’s plans to try and reduce costs for its companies operating in the region, he said.

ASEAN Landscape

“This is a project that will help change the ASEAN landscape,” Somchet said, referring to the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which has a market of almost 600 million people. “We are establishing an industrial hub where raw materials will flow” to China, India and Japan.

To be sure, Myanmar has recently put two electricity projects on hold due to opposition from environmentalists. One of them is a 4,000-megawatt coal-fired power project in Dawei that Italian-Thai agreed to build with Ratchaburi. In September, Thein Sein halted construction of a Chinese-backed $3.6 billion hydropower station.

The moves underscored the investment risks stemming from Myanmar’s 14-month-old transition toward democracy, a process on which the lifting of sanctions is conditioned. The country is viewed as the most corrupt after North Korea and Somalia in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index.

The Dawei project is “still far from reality,” DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co. said in a Jan. 16 report. “Despite potential to bring economic prosperity to Burma, the project is still in its infancy and clouded with risks.”

Steel Mill

Italian-Thai is wooing banks to lend $12.5 billion for the development as well as to invest in an integrated steel mill, an oil, gas and petrochemical complex and fertilizer plants. It expects to gain income from selling land and acting as the main contractor on the project’s infrastructure, including a more than 100-kilometer road from Dawei to the Thai border.

Thein Sein took power last year after a general election in 2010 that ended half of a century of military rule. In addition to releasing hundreds of political prisoners and signing the cease-fire with the country’s largest armed rebel group, he has sought dialogue with democracy advocate Aung San Suu Kyi.

The U.S. and U.K. have pledged to ease sanctions if he takes additional steps to reduce political repression and demonstrates the changes will last. Standard Chartered Plc (STAN) and General Electric Co. (GE) are among those seeking to invest in Myanmar after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton last month completed the highest-level U.S. visit to the nation in more than five decades.

‘Strategic Location’

China and India share more than 3,600 kilometers of border with Myanmar, whose 64 million people earn an average of just $2.25 per day, according to International Monetary Fund estimates. Both nations have sought increased access to the resource-rich nation’s reserves of natural gas.

“Myanmar can become a regional hub for some sectors,” Nay Zin Latt, an adviser to Thein Sein, said in an e-mail. “Our strategic location will attract investors. Goods and commodities will move in and out more conveniently with a lower cost, making us more competitive.”

Gas sales and better freight links with China, India and the rest of Southeast Asia may enable Myanmar to boost gross domestic product growth, which IMF data shows averaged 4.9 percent per year during 2008 through 2011.

Gas Rich

Natural gas production in Myanmar has almost quadrupled in the past decade to 12.1 billion cubic meters in 2010. That is equivalent to about one-eighth the output of China, Asia- Pacific’s biggest producer, according to the BP Statistical Review. Gas sales to neighboring Thailand have made it Myanmar’s top trading partner.

“The Dawei port will focus on petrochemicals, not containers,” said Ruth Banomyong, an assistant professor at Bangkok’s Thammasat University who has studied logistics in the region for the Asian Development Bank. “It will be more of an industrial port, with gas and petroleum products.”

Maersk Line Ltd. will look to do more business in Myanmar if the nation opens up to the international community, said Thomas Knudsen, chief executive officer of Asian operations at Maersk Line, a unit of Copenhagen-based A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S (MAERSKB), the world’s biggest container shipper.

The deep-sea port will be able to handle more than 200 million tons of cargo when completed, according to Italian-Thai. That compares with 47 million tons of cargo that passed through Laem Chabang, Thailand’s biggest port, in 2009, Port Authority statistics show.

“Clearly the port could start to grow,” Maersk’s Knudsen said, referring to Dawei. “We’ve seen that in other parts of the world when you’ve got the combination of a deepwater port and zones for manufacturing.”

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Manila Bulletin – Myanmar changing?
A Global View
By DR. BETH DAY ROMULO
January 18, 2012, 11:29pm

MANILA, Philippines — US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made an official visit to Myanmar (formerly Burma) last December 1-3, the first such visit by a high-ranking American official to this relatively isolated Asian country in more than 50 years. A month later, the British foreign Secretary William Hague also travelled to Myanmar.

In each case, the foreign guest was allowed to visit Burma’s Nobel Prize winner, opposition leader and political activist Aung San Suu Kyi. Suu Kyi was freed from seven years of house arrest in 2010.

Perhaps even more indicative of a radical political change is that a new parliamentary government has been established and Miss Suu Kyi’s party has been approved to run in the national election.

If you have been watching the relatively scant news that has come out of Myanmar in the past few years, this is clear evidence that the rigid military-run government is changing. The present president, Thein Sein, a former general, has expressed interest in reforms and opening up the secluded country to the outside world, both economically and politicaly.

Last August, Suu Kyi was invited to meet with the president and later, with government ministers, a first in decades. Another important indicator of a more relaxed administration is that the individual citizen’s access to Web sites is no longer blocked. Foreign journalists have been allowed in and for the first time, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO), trade unions have been established within the country and some of the estimated 400 political prisoners have been released.

Secretary Clinton responded to the reforms by saying that harsh sanctions will be lifted as political prisoners are released.

Suu Kyi told the international press that she expected to live to see full democratic elections in Myanmar. She is 66, so she probably means in the next 20 years.

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The Nation – Burma sends peace delegation to end northern ethnic conflict
January 18, 2012 5:37 pm

Ruili, China – Burma dispatched a delegation Wednesday to seek an end to several months of fighting with ethnic Kachin rebels in the northern part of the country.

Chief government negotiator Aung Thaung flew to the Shan State capital of Lashio and then traveled to the Chinese border town of Ruili for talks with the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO).

“We are trying to reach an agreement at the meeting, but it’s hard to say if we will make a deal,” he said.

The talks followed a ceasefire dialogue a week ago with the Karen National Union, another ethnic minority rebel group.

At those talks, the government agreed to end all hostilities with the dozen rebel groups fighting for autonomy in their traditional states for the past six decades.

The government had previously signed tentative ceasefire pacts with the Shan State Army-South and the Chin National Army.

The military has been waging an offensive against the Kachin rebels since June, displacing about 60,000 civilians.

“The people of Kachin State live in fear due to the massive presence of Burma army troops, ongoing fighting and grave violations of human rights,” the KIO said.

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Al Jazeera – Myanmar: What is in it for the US?
As US officials visit, we ask if progress is underway or if Myanmar’s president is the public face of the old junta.
Inside Story Americas Last Modified: 18 Jan 2012 12:50

There has been a flurry of recent visits to Myanmar by Western governments offering more development assistance. The US says it now wants to restore full diplomatic relations with the nation following its recent reforms.

Mitch McConnell, the top Republican politician in the US senate, is in Myanmar. He met with pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi on Monday and then with President Thein Sein, on Tuesday.

McConnell said: “We also look forward to a free and fair election, a by-election on April 1, and in the wake of that I think it would be appropriate for us to further consider, in the United States, the various sanctions that we have in place and the appropriateness of continuing those.”

His visit follows US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton’s visit last month to the country.

It marks a new engagement with the nation. For nearly two decades, since the regime’s brutal crackdown on the 1988 pro-democracy demonstrations and its refusal to honour the 1990 election results, the US has attempted to isolate Myanmar, imposing tough sanctions.

In November 2010, an election took place which led to a nominally civilian government. But its ranks are filled with former generals including President Thein Sein. And in recent months, the new regime has begun a series of reforms.
First of all, the government began dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi, who had spent 22 years under house arrest until her release in November 2010.

Ethnic minorities make up 40 per cent of Myanmar’s population and they have been demanding either independence or regional autonomy from the Burman-dominated government for decades.

And the government is now pursuing peace deals with ethnic minority rebels. According to officials, the military was told to halt all offensives in ethnic minority conflict zones, on Tuesday.

As part of the reforms that have led the US administration to order the restoration of full diplomatic ties with Myanmar, the government has also pardoned hundreds of imprisoned dissidents. Around 200 political prisoners were released last Friday.

That step that was hailed by Hillary Clinton, who said: “… The United States will meet action with action. Based on the steps taken so far, we will now begin. In consultation with members of congress and at the direction of President Obama, we will start the process of exchanging ambassadors with Burma [Myanmar]. We will identify a candidate to serve as US ambassador to represent the United States government and our broader efforts to strengthen and deepen our ties with both the people and the
government.”

On this episode of Inside Story Americas we ask: Why is the US reaching out to Myanmar and what does it stand to gain from doing so? And is Myanmar’s president committed to meaningful progress or is he simply serving as the public face of the old junta in its quest to retain power?

To discuss this we are joined by: Kyaw Win, who was the second most senior diplomat in the Myanmar embassy in Washington DC but defected in July 2011 and has since been granted political asylum in the US; Doug Bandow from the CATO Institute and; Aung Din, the co-founder of the US Campaign for Burma – an organisation which promotes human rights and campaigns to bring an end to the military dictatorship.

During her meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi last December, Hillary Clinton said this about US objectives in Myanmar:
“Democracy is the goal. That has been the goal from the very beginning. And yet we know that it has been a long, very difficult path that has been followed. We do see openings today.”

And the Burmese pro-democracy leader said:

“Before we decide what steps to take, we have to find out what our greatest needs are, and of course, two of the greatest needs in this country are rule of law and a cessation to a civil war. All hostilities must cease within this country as soon as possible.”

Myanmar economy

Myanmar has huge amounts of untapped natural resources – including oil and gas, minerals, gems and timber.

Oil pipeline deal – In 2010, Myanmar and China agreed on a pipeline worth $2bn to ship oil and gas to China from the Bay of Bengal.
Rare Earths – South Korea has struck a deal to develop mineral resources including rare-earths – which are vital to many hi-tech products. Japan too is seeking a similar deal.
Cheap Labour – Labour costs being less than one-fifth of those in China or Thailand, could attract US investment in, for example, garment factories.

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Refugees | 18.01.2012
Deutsche Welle – Burmese refugees stuck in Thailand hold hope after rebel ceasefire
Author: Monika Griebeler

Every time Moon Lay steps out of her small hut, she can see her home in the distance: the mountains of Kayin State, beautiful and grand. On the horizon lies her former village, now slashed and burnt. When fighting broke out in Myanmar between the military and rebel troops after disputed elections in 2010, it was the villagers who were caught in the crossfire.

Moon Lay, and many others, were forced to flee across the nearby border. “I was running and running, carrying my two daughters. Everyone was running. All the time we heard gun shots. I was so scared,” she recounts as tears slowly roll down her cheek.

Another Burmese refugee in Thailand, Pah Dah, speaks of his longing for his family and hometown. He left Myanmar when soldiers settled in his town and forced villagers to work for them. When Pah Dah was 16, he decided to undergo the three-day trek through the jungle to escape, nearly drowning in a river in the process. “Sometimes I dream of my house, my garden,” he says. “I want to go back. But it is just not possible for us to do so at the moment.”

A lifetime of war

For more than 60 years, civil war has had a tight grip on life in Kayin state in eastern Myanmar. The military has been fighting the ethnic Karen – and the rebels have been fighting for independence. The non-governmental organization Free Burma Rangers has documented human rights abuses in the conflict for years. Rape, forced labor and killings are a part of everyday life. Villagers are even used as human minesweepers by the soldiers, one spokesperson says.

Now, it is hoped peace is about to come to Myanmar after the rebels and the army agreed a ceasefire deal earlier this month. The details are yet to be agreed, but for the international community this initial agreement is already an important step forward.

Western nations say ending the ethnic conflict is one of the key requirements before they will consider lifting sanctions against Myanmar. Several high-profile diplomats who have visited Myanmar in recent months – from US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to British Foreign Secretary William Hague – have stressed this precondition.

No kind of life

Pah Dah and Moon Lay are hopeful as well. They now live near the small, dusty Thai border town of Mae Sot. About 80 percent of the inhabitants are of Burmese origin. In total, it is estimated that more than one million Burmese refugees live in Thailand, some in refugee camps, others illegally.

The thousands who fled over the border in 2010, as Moon Lay did, were not received well by the Thai authorities. One officer in Mae Sot declared that “as soon as it is safe [in Myanmar], we will send the refugees back.”

“Thailand wants the refugees to go back. The refugees also want to go back,” says Duncan McArthur from the Thai Burmese Border Consortium, which provides relief to some 160,000 Burmese refugees in Thailand. The border crossing over the Moei River was reopened last December, but McArthur urges the authorities not to rush the repatriation process. “There is no point in doing it prematurely because then people will just come back in a less regulated way. We are not yet ready for a mass-repatriation. That is going to take time.”

Illusion of peace

And the situation in the mountainous northern state of Kachin shows that a ceasefire is by no means a guarantee for peace. A long-standing peace was broken just last year, since which both sides have been caught up in brutal clashes once again.

“The army is still kind of doing its own thing: It is a little bit decentralized. So the specific guys who are running the camps in these areas have orders from the top – but they can also do things at their own pace,” the spokesperson for the Free Burma Rangers explains.

After decades of war and abuse many Karen remain skeptical. “There have been some peace talk offers by the government. But I think the intention is maybe not for genuine peace talks,” Pah Dah says. “It is not that we are pessimistic. It is a fact that there still are many troops in our state and villagers are still displaced from their homes.”

Pah Dah has not seen his family for three years now. The road leading to his hometown is no longer accessible because there are too many landmines, he explains. Large parts of Kayin are littered with such explosives. Both the army and the rebels have used them to great effect during the conflict. Many victims arrive at the Mae Tao Clinic in Mae Sot where they receive free treatment. But the waiting list is long, and life in Myanmar remains dangerous, even without the fighting.

“Our village is not yet safe. That is why I do not dare to go back. And there is nothing there anyway,” Moon Lay says. And so it seems that in the hearts of the many Burmese refugees lingering in Thailand, there is still fear for what they might lay across the border, even after all sides have laid down their arms.

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India to scale up ties with democratic Myanmar
Calcutta News.Net
Wednesday 18th January, 2012 (IANS)

Amid the democratic transition in Myanmar, Foreign Minister U. Wunna Maung Lwin comes to India next week, a visit expected to boost economic and energy ties between the two countries.

External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna will hold discussions with his Myanmar counterpart to scale up trade and investment, collaboration in the area of energy security and infrastructure building.

The two ministers will also review the progress in implementing agreements and initiatives decided upon during the visit of Myanmar President U. Thein Sein to India last year.

U. Wunna Maung Lwin will deliver a lecture at the Indian Council for World Affairs (ICWA) on “Myanmar: A Country in Transition to Democracy.”

Manmohan Singh had announced A $500 million line-of-credit to Myanmar for a slew of development projects, including irrigation.

He had offered help to further strengthen the democratic transition in Myanmar in an inclusive and broadbased manner.

He also expressed readiness to share India’s own experiences in evolving parliamentary rules, procedures and practices.

India is expected to reiterate its support for democratic institution-building in the energy-rich Southeast Asian country.

Last month, a parliamentary delegation from Myanmar visited India to understand the systems in the world’s most populous democracy.

The democratic reforms initiated by the new government in Myanmar has attracted positive global attention, with the West reaching out to a reformist Myanmar in a major way.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton became the first top US diplomat to visit Myanmar last month in over five decades.
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Council on Foreign Relations (blog) – Myanmar: the Next Asian Tiger Cub Economy?
by Joshua Kurlantzick
January 18, 2012

With the upgrading of American diplomatic relations with Myanmar, and a wave of political reform in the country over the past year, many businesses have begun eying the Southeast Asian nation, which has a population of over 50 million people and has been essentially isolated from Western companies by U.S., Japanese, and EU sanctions. A delegation of Japanese business leaders recently visited the country, as did an American delegation. Business magnate and philanthropist George Soros also visited recently (of course, the U.S. would have to drop sanctions for investment to happen, but that is looking more likely).  Asia Sentinel has provided an update on all the corporate interest in Myanmar.

I have personally heard from a number of Western businesspeople who see great potential in Myanmar – they see the sizable population, the history of British law, and the significant natural resources including offshore petroleum, and compare Myanmar today to Vietnam in the early 1990s, when that country began to seriously open up to Western investment.

But, at least right now, that comparison is seriously flawed. Myanmar is a large consumer market, but its development indicators overall are more on the level of some of the poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Large areas of the country have virtually no infrastructure, having been dominated by ethnic insurgencies for decades. Although the country has a history of quality education and use of English, for decades the regime essentially shut down the best universities, fearful that they would be breeding grounds for anti-government protests as they have been many times in Myanmar’s history. This was perhaps the most destructive blow to the country’s economic future – despite some government talk of IT and computer science in recent years, in reality Myanmar is one of the least technologically advanced nations in Asia, outside North Korea. It would be very hard for a multinational to build an office of any size in Myanmar doing medium-value or high-value added work, without recruiting many Burmese exiles to come back to the country, which probably is not going to happen at this point.

Of course, in certain industries such as natural resources, all these flaws may not matter; Oil companies have prospered in other climates inhospitable to business. But then there is another problem, which did not exist as much in Vietnam: Even in the resources industry, any Western companies coming in will start with at least a ten-year disadvantage against Chinese firms already established in Myanmar, and with shorter supply chains, more diplomatic support, and large pools of cash.

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New York Times (blog) – Turning Off the Dark in Myanmar?
By MARK MCDONALD
| January 18, 2012, 10:05 am

PARIS — It has been almost giddy, almost gooey, even meteoric, the recent Western embrace of the regime in Myanmar.

So how has the former Burma — once the E. coli of Southeast Asia and a jackbooted political cousin to North Korea — quite suddenly become the new darling of Britain, the United States and other Western governments?

Is there something more to this than a proxy tug-of-war between China and the United States? Are the Burmese generals really going to turn off the dark? Myanmar as a proto-democracy?

A rigged election last March put a battalion of generals into Parliament and installed a former brigadier general, U Thein Sein, as the president. But then came William Hague’s official visit earlier this month, the first by a British foreign secretary in 55 years.

When U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton trooped through late last year, she was allowed to publicly visit Aung San Suu Kyi , the longtime pro-democracy leader, and announced a restoration of diplomatic relations.

And on Tuesday, no less than the Republican leader of the U.S. Senate, Mitch McConnell — certainly no political cousin of Mrs. Clinton — himself had an audience with Thein Sein.

But the military still has a lock on all the social, political and judicial levers of power, ex-officers infest every meaningful ministry and state-owned company, and Myanmar remains a nefarious transit point for the trafficking of drugs, gems, weapons and humans.

Thein Sein has pardoned political prisoners, struck a peace deal with ethnic Karen rebels, halted a massive Chinese-backed dam project and allowed Suu Kyi’s political party to register her as a candidate in a parliamentary election set for April 1.

A full-on resumption of relations between Myanmar and the United States will clearly not happen until after the election. First, Suu Kyi must be allowed to win and Thein Sein must not be assassinated by reactionary elements in the military.

To know if Myanmar is truly on the road to democracy, look for these signposts in the near term:

Washington will float the name of an ambassadorial candidate or two, and American diplomats will perhaps use “Burma” less often as the official name for Myanmar. (The junta adopted Myanmar in 1989.)

Suu Kyi will begin to travel — first around Myanmar and then abroad. When her British husband, Michael Aris, was dying of prostate cancer in the late 1990s, she did not go to Britain to be with him. She was afraid that the junta would not allow her back into the country.

Election monitors will be permitted to observe the elections and international journalists will be given visas to legally work inside Myanmar. Until now, getting into the country as a reporter has been about as easy as crashing a Mafia wedding.

Myanmar will sign more treaties with its warring ethnic minorities, notably the Kachin.

If the current overall trend continues, Myanmar could well serve as a remarkable model — and a largely peaceful one — for despotic regimes transitioning to nascent democracies.

A model, perhaps, for the likes of North Korea.

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The Diplomat – The January Spring
By Mong Palatino
January 19, 2012

It seems that the winds of change have arrived early this year in Southeast Asia, which saw the unprecedented release of more than 600 political prisoners in Burma, the acquittal of Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim over sodomy charges, the start of the impeachment trial of Chief Justice Renato Corona of the Philippines, and the approval by Singaporean politicians of the recommendation to have their salaries and fat bonuses reduced.

The junta-backed Burmese government surprised even its supporters when it released 651 political detainees last Friday (it was dubbed the “Beautiful Friday the 13th” by some netizens on Facebook). Those released included activists, journalists and opposition leaders who had been languishing in the country’s 43 prisons and 100 labor camps for years.

The government’s decision to grant amnesty to dissidents was immediately welcomed by its neighbors and by Western powers led by the United States, which vowed to restore formal ties with Burma. If sanctions are removed, Burma can expect an influx aid and investment from rich countries. Hopefully, this would also help to end the country’s years of political isolation.

Despite its poor human rights record, it seems Burma has broadly been doing the right things since reviving its parliament, conducting more open elections, releasing Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest, and now this latest prisoner release. Will the government be able to sustain the democratic reforms it has promised for this year?

Meanwhile, in Malaysia, Anwar’s acquittal was described by opposition groups as a victory for justice after claims the Najib Razak government orchestrated the sodomy case against Anwar to undermine the opposition. The high-profile trial dragged on for two years, which led many people to question the independence of the courts.

Anwar’s acquittal can therefore help restore confidence in the courts, and may help convince ordinary citizens that a transparent and independent judiciary still exists in the country, despite the perceived machinations of the ruling party. Now that Anwar is free, the opposition can also direct its attention to upcoming elections and working out how to defeat the ruling coalition, which has been in power for several decades already. Maybe Malaysia can also review the proposal to repeal its oppressive sodomy laws.

But if the Malaysian judiciary survived the Anwar Ibrahim case, the Philippine judicial system is still facing its biggest crisis after Chief Justice Corona was impeached by the House of Representatives last month. He is now embroiled in a trial in the Senate’s impeachment court. Corona is accused among other things of using his position to protect his patron, former President Gloria Arroyo, who is being prosecuted for corruption and electoral fraud. He’s also accused of amassing ill-gotten wealth after his appointment in the Supreme Court.

Corona’s impeachment is supported by advocacy groups that consider the Chief Justice to be the main stumbling block to holding Arroyo accountable for the crimes she allegedly committed when she was in power. Some groups even view it as a long term campaign to transform the Supreme Court into a more independent and pro-people institution.

Lastly, Singapore’s decision to slash the salaries of government ministers, reportedly the highest paid public servants in the world, should be seen as another victory of the people. The record low number of votes garnered by the ruling party, which has been in power since 1959, forced the government to form a committee to review the pay scale of high-ranking ministers.

Surprisingly, the committee recommended hefty pay cuts for all ministers. The prime minister will see a 36 percent pay cut while the president’s salary will be reduced by 51 percent. Some citizens aren’t satisfied with the recommendations, and think their politicians are still overpaid. And indeed, the prime minister and president will still earn more than Barack Obama, even after their salary reductions. But the pay cuts should still be welcomed as an initial compromise by Singaporean politicians who rarely bow to public pressure. What citizens should focus on is the campaign for more economic reforms to bridge the very large income gap in this prosperous city state.

Political prisoners are now free, an opposition leader is acquitted of a sodomy charge, a chief justice is on trial, and politicians will receive pay cuts. These are inspiring political reforms that have taken place even before the first month of the new year has ended. Aside from the eviction of urban poor residents in Phnom Penh, and the deteriorating conditions of evacuees in flood damaged villages in southern Philippines, 2012 has started remarkably well for Southeast Asia.The January Spring

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Korea JoongAng Daily – [Viewpoint] Pyongyang may be ready for change
Myanmar’s abrupt policy U-turn might not be just a model for change in Kim’s North Korea, but a catalyst.
by William Pesek Jan 19,2012

Among the many tantalizing questions surrounding Myanmar’s flirtation with democracy is this: Might Kim Jong-un be enticed to try something similar in North Korea?

Taking stock of events in the Myanmar capital, Naypyidaw, the brand new leader of the world’s worst government might be having second thoughts about the viability of the Kim Dynasty. At least two million people starved during the 17-year reign of his father, Kim Jong-il, and North Korea’s economy is a disaster area.

Enter Myanmar, the runner-up to North Korea as Asia’s worst regime. In a few short months, President Thein Sein won an upgrade in ties with world powers, a visit from U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, talk of scrapping sanctions and nibbles from companies including General Electric. He’s done it by releasing political prisoners and holding out the promise of a new path for a nation whose 62 million citizens earn an average of $2.20 a day.

Myanmar’s abrupt policy U-turn might not be just a model for change in Kim’s North Korea, but a catalyst.

First, a couple of to-be-sure qualifiers. Only time will tell if the military-backed government is pulling off an elaborate head-fake. For all the hopes that Thein Sein is Myanmar’s Mikhail Gorbachev, there’s every reason to – as Ronald Reagan was so fond of saying – trust, but verify. How quickly Aung San Suu Kyi is allowed to re-enter government, prisoners are released and the news media can report there are among the litmus tests.

Pyongyang is a much bigger question mark. If the Soviet Union was “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma,” as Winston Churchill put it, Kim’s North Korea is a distant planet beyond the reach of our most probing telescopes.

There are some limits to the Myanmar-North Korea comparison. Myanmar, even in its darkest days, was never as surreal as North Korea. Consider reports that Pyongyang is doling out harsh terms in labor camps to those who didn’t mourn with conviction for Kim Jong-il’s death last month.

Yet it’s not naive to consider some of the forces at work.

One is how geopolitics is closing in on Asia’s despots in sudden and unpredictable ways. The Arab Spring squeezed North Korea’s finances more than is acknowledged. Muammar Qaddafi’s Libya was a steady customer for North Korea’s missiles. Syria has long been a key market for the Hermit Kingdom, along with other now-embattled governments in the Middle East and North Africa. Add to that the signs of liberalization by resource-rich Myanmar.

As Barack Obama’s White House extends a hand, the administration anticipates a quick end to Myanmar’s military ties to North Korea. That’s one more customer who won’t be stuffing Kim Jong-un’s pockets and giving him the wherewithal to placate a military leadership accustomed to living the high life and dedicated to preventing a North Korean Spring.

Then there’s China’s patronage. China has grown tired of supporting its unpredictable and thankless neighbor. When the Kim family lobs missiles at South Korea and in the direction of Tokyo, China’s phones are the first to ring. China has bigger worries on its plate – averting a financial overheating, for example – than taming Kim’s ill-timed dramas.

North Korea is surely paying attention to China’s irritation with Myanmar as it cozies up to the U.S. The rapprochement reached new highs this week when Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, a veteran Myanmar critic, visited Yangon, meeting with Suu Kyi, as did Clinton and billionaire financier George Soros recently. Such visits come three months after Myanmar suspended China’s construction of a $3.6 billion dam,

How all this is playing in Pyongyang is hard to gauge. Little is known about Kim, who is thought to be about 28. We do know he attended school in Bern, Switzerland, during the 1990s, has a passion for the National Basketball Association and Michael Jordan and, according to North Korea’s infinitely creative propaganda machine, began driving at age three.

Yet Kim has to know the economic ways of his father are getting less mileage. Blackmailing the world for food and oil with provocations is a weak strategy in the long run. So is relying on piracy, currency counterfeiting and weapons sales. The net is tightening on North Korea’s ability to trade nuclear technology with Pakistan and Iran.

The resulting cash shortage may leave just one growth industry for Kim: diplomacy. Not the usual routine of hollow pledges and confrontation, but a real opening to the world. Choi Se-woong, a banker who fled the communist North after years of working for the regime, said that Kim will drop the barriers to international business for his creaking economy.

Really, where has isolating North Korea gotten the U.S.? If decades of sanctions didn’t unseat Fidel Castro in Cuba, why do successive U.S. leaders think the strategy will work someday in North Korea? Although appeasement isn’t the answer, there is room for a different approach – one that attacks North Korea with capitalism rather than the threat of military hostilities.

Watching events unfold in Myanmar, Kim may just be having radical thoughts. If he is, the world and North Korea would be a better place.

*The author is a Bloomberg View columnist.

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The Irrawaddy – Myanmar: On Claiming Success
By DAVID I. STEINBERG Wednesday, January 18, 2012

The world, and especially the Burmese peoples, have seen many positive changes in their society over the past year. Now, in the light of these encouraging events, the world is beating a path to Myanmar’s [Burma's] doorstep. Some of those in the past have had rigorous negative opinions, ones they did not fail to share with all those around and about, and especially with those in policy positions. They wanted regime change as they believed there was little hope of progress under any military-dominated regime.

Some felt there should be no negotiations—even contact—with a corrupt, venal Burmese military, and that sanctions should squeeze the military junta until it cried Uncle (Sam). Many are now applying for visas. We hope that they will all be granted, and that they can find hotel rooms in Yangon.

And now from all sorts of foreign sources will come the barrage of claims that it was their policies that have brought about such changes in Myanmar. If it had not been for sanctions, opprobrium, invective, UN resolutions, restrictions on trade, discouragement of investment, warnings against tourism, vilification of those advocating dialogue, and a myriad of other restrictions and negative views on what was often described as a ”pariah” or “rogue” regime, the argument goes, these changes would not have taken place. So we, the foreigners, are the heroes.

This is the height of hubris. Yes, we know well the human rights abuses in that state, its sorry economic policies and incompetent implementation, its Potemkin-village-like-system of disguising reality, its manipulation of statistics to hide mal-administration. Yet to claim that foreigners have effectively controlled change or could force improvements in that sorry state is remarkably grotesque.

We all know that organizations or individuals, public or private, that have programs or projects like to claim success for their endeavors. Such efforts are individually or institutionally satisfying, stroking the personal or collective egos, and often resulting in raising more monies for further such exploits.

To make such claims, however, is to deny the acumen and capacity of the Burmese people. Yes, they have been oppressed, and their occasional outward expressions of discontent have been brutally suppressed. They have tolerated much, and seem to have had a long fuse and have not exploded as often as they might have given their provocations, perhaps because of the karmic belief that evil rulers with get their just desserts in future incarnations. To make such claims is also to deny that however grammatically singular the word “military” may be, it is in reality plural.

There always have been those within the rigid military system who thought of the plight of the people, as there have been “thugs” interested in self-aggrandizement. As one highly placed Burmese colonel who was a cabinet minister said, “We were taught that this uniform, this gun, came from the people, but we have forgotten that.” To deny the essential humanity of all this admitted elite is singularly inept.

Openings within the pervasive power system in Myanmar have allowed those concerned with their own society to advocate change and reform. After a half-century of repression, such progress is likely to be halting and asymmetrical, and it will only take place at a pace that the society can handle, if it is allowed to do so. For the world to deny the reality of such attempted changes is, in effect, to subvert them. Yet for foreigners to attempt to control, take over, and claim credit for progress is an equally effective method to diminish their effectiveness.

Foreigners should remember how marginal they really are—in spite of their military power, economic penetration, and propinquity or distance. Those for or against sanctions, for or against dialogue, or for or against engagement are bit players in the Burmese drama, in which the past or present villains and the present heroes are Burmese of all ethnicities and persuasions. We wish them well.

David I. Steinberg is Distinguished Professor of Asian Studies, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. His latest volume (with Fan Hongwei) is “Modern China-Myanmar Relations: Dilemmas of Mutual Dependence” (March 2012).

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The Irrawaddy – Burma’s Hip Hop Singer Stands for By-Election Seat
By BA KAUNG Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Famous hip hop singer Zayar Thaw will contest a parliamentary seat in the looming by-elections for the same Naypyidaw constituency which elected ex-Gen Thein Sein as Burma’s president in 2010.

The 32-year-old activist and former political prisoner has been chosen as a candidate by the National League for Democracy (NLD) party led by Aung San Suu Kyi. The Nobel Laureate is also contesting the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for April 1.

Zayar Thaw confirmed on Wednesday that he will be competing for a seat in Pubba Thiri Township in Naypyidaw where Thein Sein was previously elected. He became an ardent follower of Suu Kyi upon being released from prison in May last year after being jailed for over three years for political activities.

The NLD’s decision to choose a relatively young person, compared to many other players in Burmese politics, reflects Suu Kyi’s desire to incorporate youth into her aging party.

“I will try my best. Whether I will succeed in this bid will be known on April 1,” he said in an interview with The Irrawaddy. “I wish to try so that the public can cast their ballots in the coming elections without fear.”

Although the NLD boycotted the parliamentary elections in 2010, it decided to contest the coming by-elections in response to recent democratic overtures by the new quasi-civilian government. But Zayar Thaw will not be competing against Thein Sein in the April poll as the ex-general vacated his seat in order to assume the post of president.

There are 48 seats up for grabs in the ballot with 46 in the Lower and Upper Houses of the National Parliament and two more in the regional assemblies. The Parliament is dominated by the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party led by former army generals, which is why some analysts believe there is little chance of the NLD having any substantive influence.

But in response to such criticisms, Suu Kyi said in a speech on Tuesday, “even a single person can move a nation if one desires to serve their country.”

On Wednesday, Suu Kyi formally registered to run for a parliamentary seat in the Lower House of Burma’s Union Parliament for a rural constituency in Kawhmu Township, near Rangoon.

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No More Coups in Burma, Says Shwe Mann
By THE IRRAWADDY Wednesday, January 18, 2012

There is little danger that Burma’s military will ever seize control of the country again, according to Shwe Mann, the speaker of the lower house of the country’s nominally civilian Parliament.

“I don’t think it will happen in the future. We really understand the situation of the people and the country,” the former top general said in an interview with Agence France-Presse on Monday.

Burma has experienced two coup d’etats since it achieved independence in 1948: one in 1962 that ended a brief era of parliamentary democracy, and another in 1988, when the military crushed a pro-democracy uprising that had brought down the previous military-dominated socialist regime.

Now that the military has introduced a new era of “disciplined democracy,” however, it is unlikely to turn back the clock again, said Shwe Mann.

“There is no other way than a democratic system,” he said.

His comments come amid speculation that hardliners within the current quasi-civilian government could seek to reverse a series of limited reforms that have been introduced since last year.

In an interview with The Associated Press on Jan. 5, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who has strongly endorsed the reform efforts of President Thein Sein, warned that they were not “unstoppable” and will succeed only if the powerful military accepts the changes.

Under Burma’s 2008 military-drafted constitution, the armed forces is guaranteed a key role in the country’s political affairs. Chapter XI, article 417 of the charter also empowers the commander-in-chief of the armed forces to take full control of the government in the event of a threat to the nation’s sovereignty.

However, the country’s current commander-in-chief, Gen Min Aung Hlaing, played down the likelihood of that ever happening when he met with Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra in Bangkok on Jan. 10.

Htay Aung, a researcher with the Network for Democracy and Development, a Burmese NGO based in exile, agreed that the military wasn’t likely to feel the need to seize power again, because it is already effectively in control of the country.

Meanwhile, a government minister confirmed on Tuesday that the Burmese army is under orders to halt its offensives against ethnic rebels, including the Kachin Independence Army, with which it has been fighting since last June.

“The order covers the whole country,” Khin Yi, the minister for immigration and population, told AFP in an interview.

He added, however, that the order has proven difficult to implement on the ground.

“Some of the grassroots level units, when on patrol duty, unexpectedly met each other and exchanged fire. Sometimes, the order didn’t reach the grassroots level,” he said.

Khin Yi also said the government plans to organize a meeting of all the country’s ethnic armed groups if they agree to ceasefires.

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The Irrawaddy – Govt Hints at Release of KNU Leader
By SAW YAN NAING and SITHU Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Burmese Home Minister Lt-Gen Ko Ko said that the government will consider releasing the detained Karen rebel leader Mahn Nyein Maung if there is an appeal for his freedom.

“Legal action continues to be taken, but if there are calls for an amnesty, we will think about it,” the home minister told reporters at a press conference on Saturday.

The comment came just two days after a government peace delegation reached a ceasefire agreement with representatives of the Karen National Union (KNU) on Jan. 12.

Mahn Nyein Maung was arrested last July by Chinese immigration officials in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan Province, after being sent back from Bangkok, where he was denied entry by Thai officials. He was then deported to Burma, where he was taken into custody.

Often likened to the French convict “Papillon” for his daring escape from the Burmese penal colony on Coco Island in 1970, Mahn Nyein Maung is now being held in Rangoon’s notorious Insein Prison for violating immigration laws and having connections with illegal organizations.

Mahn Nyein Maung went on trial on Dec. 8 behind closed doors at Mingaladon Court in Rangoon and was later sentenced to 17 years.

Long regarded by the Burmese government as an illegal militia group, the KNU signed its first ever ceasefire agreement in the Karen capital, Pa-an, last Thursday. The group’s peace negotiators later traveled to Naypyidaw to receive a signed copy of the agreement from the president’s office, said David Taw, who headed the delegation.

According to David Taw, the chief government peace negotiator, Railways Minister Aung Min, told the KNU peace representatives in Naypyidaw that the government will release Mahn Nyein Maung.

“The government will release him as ‘peace gift’ to us,” he said. “After the ceasefire, we expect not only Mahn Nyein Maung but also other KNU members who are being detained in prisons to be released.”

Mahn Nyein Maung was first arrested in 1960 for his work as an underground dissident. He was sentenced and sent to Coco Island, an infamous detention center for political prisoners located about 300 km off the Burmese mainland.

He and two other political prisoners managed to escape from the island in 1970 by floating across the Indian Ocean clutching driftwood.

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KNU seeks release of KNU-connected prisoners
Wednesday, 18 January 2012 22:07
Kyaw Kha

Chiang Mai (Mizzima) – Imprisoned members of the Karen National Union (KNU) and innocent civilians who might have aided the KNU should be freed following the signing of a cease-fire agreement between the KIO and the Burmese government, say KNU officials.

KNU Peace Building Committee Secretary Pado Saw David Taw said that a KNU prisoners’ list would be given to the government identifying people imprisoned under charges involving the unlawful associations act, bomb blast cases, murder and other offenses.

“We will demand this especially for those who provided food to us on the frontlines, who carried our belongings, and hosted us at their homes. They are in prisons for unlawful association. We want them back because they are our benefactors, and they provided for us,” David Taw told Mizzima.

After signing a cease-fire agreement in Pa-an on January 12, the KNU delegation proceeded to Naypyitaw where government Peace Making Committee leader and Railway Minister Aung Min reportedly asked them to compile the list of prisoners and send it to the government.

“Railway Minister Aung Min said they would work for the release as much as they could,” David Taw said. The list is still being finalized.

The Thai-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (Burma) (AAPP-B) said that there were 69 prisoners in various prisons such as Taungoo, Insein, Thayet and Shwebo in connection with the KNU. Most are in Taungoo Prison.

“Some of them are just villagers, but they were charged with unlawful association and having contact with unlawful association groups. And also some of them were charged with murder, bombings, etc. This list of 69 people is just the list we can access,” said Bo Kyi, a joint-secretary of the AAPP. The prison terms range from three years to life in prison.

National League for Democracy party central executive committee member Nai Nai said about 10 prisoners involved in KNU cases had been released under the four previous amnesty orders issued by President Thein Sein. About 10 other prisoners including KNU leader Pado Mahn Nyein Maung are still in Insein Prison.

Pado Mahn Nyein Maung will be released soon, according to KNU officials. He went missing in July last year while he was visiting China. He was then detained and sent to Rangoon from Kunming, China, and later charged under the Immigration Act, holding a forged travel document and being a member of an unlawful group. He was sentenced to 17 years in prison.

Government minister Aung Min tried to release and return Pado Mahn Nyein Maung with the KNU delegation when he met with them in Naypyitaw, but paperwork prevented his release in time.

According to the KNU, it will meet again with the government peace delegation in about 45 days to go over points in the peace agreement.

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Burma tourism ready to takeoff?
Wednesday, 18 January 2012 12:11
Mizzima News

(Mizzima) – French, German and British tourist were the most frequent Western tourists in Burma last year. The largest number of tourists were from Thailand, followed by China.

The number of foreign visitors passing through Rangoon International Airport rose by 21.8 per cent in 2012 to nearly 360,000, reports said Sunday.

More than two-thirds were from Asian countries, led by Thailand with 59,010 visitors, followed by China with 32,757, according to Deutsche Presse-Agentur.

Europeans accounted for 65,367 travellers, led by France with 13,102 visitors, Germany with 10,932, and Britain 7,195.

“Arrival numbers are increasing 20 per cent to 30 per cent every year”, Lynn Zaw Wai Mang, general manager of Unique Asia Travel in Rangoon, was quoted by the news agency. “It means we need to build more hotels, expand airlines and develop our infrastructure so we can offer a better level of service to visitors.”

While the numbers are good, tourism industry spokesmen are citing potential problems down the road and calling for the newly elected government to undertake rapid infrastructure changes.

An article in the Myanmar Times on January 2 cited concerns about the country’s lack of hotels and transport capacity, poor infrastructure, high prices and inefficient booking systems.

“The Myanmar tourism industry is now at a point where we need to become more professional because the number of people who want to visit Myanmar is slowly growing,” Edwin Briels, general manager of Exploration Travel and Tour, was quoted as saying.

Others cited the availability of seats on domestic airline bookings as a serious issue.

“On one side arrival numbers are growing but on the other side we don’t have enough facilities to meet demand. We have a shortage of hotel rooms and domestic [airline] seats during this year’s high season and this issue can potentially have a huge negative impact on tourism. The ministry and private sectors must consider developing a master plan to solve these problems,” said an industry spokesperson.

Industry experts said more European and American tourists could be expected. “There will be a significant increase in leisure travellers from the United Kingdom, Scandinavia, the United States and Australia from 2012 onwards,” said one expert.

“Commercial travellers will also increase with the opening up of the economy. Therefore, major leisure destinations such as Bagan, Inle and Ngapali will benefit from the high-end leisure market, and Yangon as the key commercial hub will benefit from business travellers.”

Werner Rumpf, the managing director of Sun Birds Tours, said that for European demand to really take off the tourism industry would need to see more investment.

“It can be said in one sentence: build up much better infrastructure for tourism, such as more hotels, cars, flights, guides and last but not least improved roads so that clients can see this beautiful country overland,” he said.

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China now No. 1 investor in Burma
Wednesday, 18 January 2012 13:29
Mizzima News

(Mizzima) – China has invested nearly US$ 14 billion in Burma, equal to 35 per cent of Burma’s total foreign investments, according to government statistics. China is now Burma’s No. 1 investor, passing Thailand.

China’s latest investment in Burma was in November 2011, with  $4 billion in the power energy sector. Most of the $14 billion investments are in sectors involving hydropower energy, oil and gas and mining, according to a report in Eleven News in Rangoon.

“Jade and timber extractions in Kachin State. Oil and gas in Rakhine State and mining in other states. [China] invested in hydro-electricity power projects in many parts of the country. Presently, 34.5 of the country’s total foreign investments are from China [out of more than 30 countries that are investing],” according to a spokesperson from the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce quoted in the Eleven News report.

Until 2008, Chinese investment in Burma was around $1 billion, but it jumped to nearly $13 billion by 2011.

In a 2008 report on China’s investments in Burma, Earthrights International (ERI) identified at least 69 Chinese multinational corporations (MNCs) involved in at least 90 hydropower, oil and natural gas, and mining projects in Burma.

These projects varied from small dams completed in the last two decades to planned oil and natural gas pipelines across Burma to southwest China.

Because of Burma’s secrecy in revealing economic information, the information was pieced together from government statements, English and Chinese language news reports, and company press releases available on the Internet, the report said.

The report noted that very little information is disclosed to the Burmese public or the communities’ affected by the projects.

Limited energy resources have made Burma an attractive source for investments for China and other countries including India, Thailand, Korea, Singapore, among Asian countries.

While China has embraced a foreign policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other states, “the line between business and politics in a country like Burma is blurred at best,” the reported stated.

In pursuit of Burma’s natural resources, China has provided Burma with political support, military armaments, and financial support in the form of conditions-free loans.

For a copy of the report, go to  http://www.earthrights.org/publication/china-burma-increasing-investment-chinese-multinational-corporations-burmas-hydropower-o

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DVB News – Party alliance faces fight against NLD
By AYE NAI
Published: 18 January 2012

A 10-strong alliance of parties that competed in the November 2010 elections admit they face a tough fight to out-muscle the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) in looming by-elections in Burma.

The NLD will field candidates in all 48 constituencies where seats are up for grabs. Included among them is revered leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who commands widespread support across Burma and who is likely to win her constituency in Kawhmu, south of Rangoon.

The Democratic Party Myanmar is one member of the Myanmar Fraternal Democratic Parties alliance, which has picked 19 candidates. Its chairman, Thu Wei, said the group met yesterday to thrash out strategies for the 1 April vote, adding that the 10 parties “will have to compete with them [NLD] democratically”.

The by-elections are likely to be a hot contest between the NLD and so-called ‘third force’ parties, such as Democratic Party Myanmar and the alliance’s other members, including the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party and Rakhine Nationalities Development Party, which came third and fourth in the 2010 polls.

Government-backed politicians will also face stiff competition from the NLD, which won resoundingly in the 1990 elections but was never allowed to take office. Parliamentary speaker Shwe Mann has promised the by-elections will be free and fair, following criticism from the west that the 2010 vote was a sham.

Suu Kyi will be up against former Rangoon mayor Aung Thein Linn in Kawhmu, which was severely damaged by cyclone Nargis in 2008 and whose residents will remember well the woeful government response to the disaster.

Also among NLD candidates is Phyo Min Thein, who was due to compete in the 2010 elections for the Union Democratic Party before he announced her would boycott the poll, citing government intimidation of voters.

Suu Kyi has stressed her wish to see more females compete in April. Only a handful of the 1,000-plus MPs in Burma are women, and none were elected to cabinet positions.

Phyu Phyu Thin, the popular female HIV/AIDS activist, will compete in Mingalar Taungnyunt township in Rangoon, one of around 12 women put forward for the vote by the NLD.

How much influence the party will be able to wield in parliament remains to be seen, given the dominance of military officials and the army-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, which won around 80 percent of the vote in 2010.

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DVB News – Student army laments jailed members
Published: 18 January 2012

The armed All Burma Students’ Democratic Front, formed in the wake of a mass uprising in 1988, says 30 of its members remain behind bars in Burma despite a far-reaching amnesty of political prisoners last week.

The group says 13 detainees that were jailed in connection with their ties to the ABSDF, which at its peak had some 10,000 troops, were freed in the 13 January release. Some of those who remain have been in prison since the early 1990s, and are serving sentences of more than 60 years.

“It’s important to release all prisoners of conscience to create a political environment inclusive for all to take part in the reform programme and democratic transition,” said deputy chairman Myo Win.

But since the amnesty, debate has taken place on who qualifies as a prisoner of conscience and political prisoner. Among those released last Friday were former military
intelligence, customs and government officials under former prime minister Khin Nyunt, who had been jailed on corruption charges and were therefore not classed by some watchdogs as political prisoners. But given that corruption is endemic throughout the government, some consider the charges on Khin Nyunt’s men as politically-motivated.

For the ABSDF, numbers of their personnel were jailed on weapons and explosives charges. The opposition National League for Democracy does not consider those jailed on charges of causing or intending to cause violence ‘prisoners of conscience’.

The ABSDF took to the jungles of Karen state following the 1988 student-led uprising and fought a lengthy battle against the Burmese army. A split in the early 1990s presaged its decline, but last year the group announced it would fight alongside two Karen forces, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), against the government.

It has been linked with the Karen struggle ever since its formation in 1988, when thousands of students fled to the jungle and were sheltered by the KNLA.

Myo Win said that government officials had approached the ABSDF on 10 January to negotiate a ceasefire. “We see their proposal as a positive approach and are planning to respond to it positively,” he said.

The government secured a tentative ceasefire with the KNLA on Thursday last week, the first time the two sides have reached an agreement in more than six decades of fighting.

Despite its opposition to the Burmese junta, the US until recently had classified the ABSDF as a terrorist group, despite the US having granted asylum to some of its members in the 1990s. It was removed from the list in January last year.

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