The news coming out of Burma is all about the election to be held from 7^th to 11^th November. Four Burmese language radio stations, namely BBC, VOA, Radio Free Asia (RFA) and Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) and the Blogs are telling what the New Light of Myanmar and inside journals do not and cannot write or voice.

More restrictions, more security, more law breakings, more vote buying practices by the authorities are reported as election is drawing nearer. There are reports and interviews on protests, anger, disapproval, billboard smearing, and etc. against the Union Solidarity Party (USDP), the party of the military regime tipped to win by hook or by crook.

The National League for Democracy (NLD)’s boycott election campaign is also going on and gaining more support. The article from the New Light of Myanmar on 1-11-2010 said that if election was not successful the army will continue to rule. It can be interpreted that the junta is still not 100% sure of the election. It means that the army will go for plan B which is to start from ground zero.

The new Myanmar flag is flying since 3:33 PM on 28-11-2010 Thursday. It was done on advice from astrologers who are more authoritative than the constitution which has to be approved by the first session of the parliament. It cannot be coincidence that the new flag is identical with that of the government in exile, the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB). Maybe it is done as per spiritualist guidance.

Nonpartisan reports also tell that there are severe disagreement among ranks and files. The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) must work hard to negotiate between uniform army officials and just-retired civilians. The USDP is not the favorite party among the army everywhere. So SPDC must do more deceitful works than expected before.

It is clear that only two, the USDP party and the National Unity Party (NUP), the name changed from the Burmese Socialist Program Party (BSPP) of late dictator General Ne Win are main contenders in this election. But a few lucky ones may come up from other parties like the National Democratic Forum (NDF), the splinter from the NLD and the Democratic Party (Burma) which is of late democratically elected Prime Minister U Nu.

But it depends on how much one can hoodwink and how much one can make use of money and administration powers. Loans, free spectacles, mobile phone, unwarranted and excessive advance voting, ambiguous identity cards for controversial nationals, free money, and etc. All tricks include threats, intimidation, bullying, coercion and etc. So this is called discipline democracy.

Vote counting by hand at Township commission offices will be scrutinized by center that is different from 1990 practice. As done during the referendum in 2008, vote counting and announcement will be centralized so that manipulation can be done outside public awareness. It is OK as there is no outside observers and foreign media.

Domestic media personals and local peoples who work for foreign media will be air-lifted and shown only at 18 selected voting sites. It is similar to poppy field destroying and heroin burning shows for foreign journalists and diplomats.

Internet has been slowed down if not cut off. It can be inaccessible soon like monk-led protests in 2007. However media guys are as smart as the junta. Authentic and accurate news will come out all the time. Nonetheless media is not as powerful as guns when it comes to Burma.

The Generals in Naypyitaw will have to sit down to look into the results and will stage-manage if necessary. In Burma the announcement from TV is official for public. The winner announcement dates have to be carefully adjusted with the date for Aung San Suu Kyi’s release. As scrutiny will be done the result may not be as quick as that of 1990 election. If everything goes well Aung San Suu Kyi has to be freed two days after the election. So it is interesting how and when the election results will be made public. Anyway the Generals know that no one has the right to ask for them.

There is no written clause when to make the election results after the election. In 1990, the election law said the Election Commission had to submit the final report before the parliament was convened. It is legal excuse for the junta because the previous Election Commission is yet to submit the final report of the 1990 election after twenty years.

A few days before the election, the sentiment of general Burmese population is equally negative against China, India and Russia. Let alone North Korea. Let’s see which country goes first to congratulate U Thein Sein, the chairman of the USDP and the sure winner of the election.

Dr. Tint Swe

3-11-2010