Opinion
LETTERS TO EDITOR

The Nation – Published on March 8, 2010

Ref: “American policy on Burma needs sharper teeth”, Editorial, March 6.

Than Shwe might be at a loss on how to proceed with the promised election.

Even with all the advantages of army supremacy – ranging from a secured 25 per cent of seats in parliament without having to enter the election, the presidential post occupied by the ex-military man, staging a coup when the military considered the country was going astray from the military point of view, to the army not answerable to a civilian government – Than Shwe is still afraid.

That is why the electoral law has still not been made known to the public.

As it is, Than Shwe might also think, as pointed out by one Burma expert, that the army might want to keep any potential opposition on the wrong foot and not allow them time to organise.

But it could still be a phobia or angst from having to plunge into uncharted political waters.

From the viewpoint of Than Shwe and his top brass, sacrificing 75 per cent of their 100-per-cent political, governing power might be taken as a big sacrifice, even though the remaining 75 per cent will be mostly contested by the army’s proxy parties like the Union Solidarity and Development Association and National Unity Party, with a little mix of small, individual, assorted parties entering the fray for multiparty election window-dressing purposes.

Aside from losing interest in his own forthcoming, orchestrated election, due to an unlikely return in the form of gaining more international legitimacy, it is indeed a difficult decision for Than Shwe to plunge into uncharted political waters.

The reason could be why Than Shwe could have second thoughts, weighing the risk involved by holding an election, if the result or benefit is not coming anywhere near his expectation.

For once the election ball starts to roll, even with all the security measures in place to protect and uphold the military’s supremacy in Burma’s political arena, the military’s total control of the governing process will likely slip and this could be the real phobia behind all this reluctance to proceed.

Under such circumstances, it seems the US won’t be able to do much for now.

SAI WANSAI

BANGKOK

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