To answer the frequently asked query of is democracy possible in Burma is yes. But what democracy is the following question. The officially dubbed “disciplined democracy” is coming soon if everything goes smoothly. Thesaurus plainly tells that disciplined means restricted or closely controlled.

For external observers, an election can be seen as a routine and standard practice in democracy and would perfectly remark that a democrat can’t reject holding of an election. As the government in exile follows the policy and position of the National League for Democracy (NLD) as possible as it can, (NCGUB) has neither endorsed nor rejected the election of 2010 at this stage if as it is.

Not only foreigners but also the people of Burma are divided to comment on that controversial election of (2010). It is normal that different people have different views on different issues. However the upcoming election in Burma is abnormal because when it comes to Burma not everything is normal. Look at the election held in 1990, the freely and fairly held election did not lead to formation of a democratic government. It has been 19 years and 6 months and not materialized. Bluntly speaking supporting an abnormal one is something like marrying to a mad fiancée.

There may be people who think that they are being defeated by the military and prefer to go along with military. Some may perceive the election after over 20 years of military rule, as an opening that may give rise to non-military peoples to play a role.

Optimistically yes. But objectively that election is something like the TV shows. The parliament after (2010) election would resemble a wrestling match fighting in a cage. The iron cage is 2008 constitution. You can’t come out of the locked doors. Even if you won the match you can’t get the due prize like in the Spiderman movie. Meanwhile Spiderman’s uncle can be shot dead.

New version of Diarchy

The peoples of India and Burma have experience of Diarchy of British colony. Diarchy is one of the oldest types of government known from ancient Sparta, Rome, and Carthage. Also in 20^th century, the system signified as a breakthrough and was the prototype of India’s full provincial autonomy and then independence. So Indian people had to wait for 28 years while Burmese people for (1948 – 1923) = 25 years. I don’t think the people of Burma of today are supposed to wait for such a long years as they are almost ready for democracy by having successful election exercise in 1990, the esteemed leaders who have vision for the future. This is 21^st century and no colony at all.

During Diarchy years British Governor took 21% of Assembly seats, appointed selected ministries and shared with Burmese, Anglo-Burmese and Indians there. The same will be applied in the Nargis constitution of 2008. The Chief of army will take 25% of seats, appoint Ministers of Defense, Security/Home affairs and Border affairs, and then in the parliament are cronies, and like-minded representatives. So the 5^th step of the roadmap should preferably be called “disciplined diarchy”.

The following categories will favor (2010) election.

* Those who readily want to collaborate with military regime such as members of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and members of Union Solidarity Association (USDA) and business cronies

* Those who have no attachment and or no fondness to 1990 election

* Those who contested and lost in (1990) election

* Those who are being expelled from NLD and those who are discredited by the Student groups

* Those who are too young and awfully immature

* The opportunists

Why is (2010) election to be held?

The stakeholders of the Union of Burma precisely highlighted that the country’s problems are twofold: (1) lack of democracy and (2) the question of rights of ethnic minorities. The international community including the United Nations acknowledged and supported for both issues.

Correspondingly the military regime has taken two big steps.

1. The answer to ethnic issues is ceasefire agreement formulated in 1992. Most of the armed ethnic groups reached ceasefire contracts. Years later most of them are not satisfied. Now they are forced to transform to “border guards”, which have no political role.

2. The response to democracy question is the holding an election to be held in 2010. Some of us want to go along. The same conspiracy will follow for the legislators of (2010) election. Maybe a few years later they will become “assembly guards”, who can’t do any politics.

The non-NLD persons and groups have liberty to agree or disagree with NLD’s declaration of April this year. Whatever the justification to support or to participate in (2010) election the military junta will be happy about it. But emotional observation is not to be concerned. Politically, all have to recollect the people’s determination expressed in (1990) election. They voted for NLD because they realized to be unified to bring down the Burma Socialist Program Party (BSPP), which has ruled for 26 years. Here again, unity of consciousness is crucial to prevent the perpetual rule of army. If we are divided and some of us are going along with the deceitful plan of the regime, we are finished.

It is sad that some intellectuals are not intelligent as the people on the street. I am confident the people’s intellect will prevail.

Dr. Tint Swe
28-11-09