A Burmese Perspective
Kanbawza Win

It seems that President Barack Obama’s first trip to Asia has signaled a turning point in relations between a weakened American eagle and the fiery Chinese Dragon that senses its time has come to ignore on human rights and restrict it to economics only. In other words business overrules the conscious. Seen through the prism of his domestic policy struggles, his health-care measure in the balance, President  has endeavors to keep congressional Democrats unified and obviously couldn’t make concrete promises to combat climate change especially in the coming Kobenhavn Conference, without adding to the political burden on Democratic lawmakers saddled with his higher priorities of health care and revamped financial regulation. On the other hand he couldn’t lean too hard on China to let its currency rise in value, lest he risk a rupture with America’s biggest creditor at a time of record U.S. budget deficits that White House economists are reluctant to tackle until the recovery is clear and self-sustaining.

The meeting between US President and his ASEAN counterparts has been mostly well-received, even though I harbour serious misgivings. President Obama clearly repeated his call in Tokyo “that the Burmese Junta needed to take clear steps toward democracy, including the unconditional release of all political prisoners, an end to conflicts with ethnic nationalities and a genuine dialogue with the opposition and ethnic nationalities on a shared vision for the future.” This was followed up by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi now asking for a meeting with General Than Shwe. It is rather hilarious to witness that Prime Minister Thein Sein a messenger boy of Than Swe sat just four seats apart from President Obama at the US-ASEAN meeting and yet nothing concrete has come out.

Even though Obama’s public demand in front of the Burmese prime minister was a dramatic repudiation of the regime’s oppressive ways, the very fact that holding a dialogue with the Burmese Junta appears to me that the US has backed down and appeared soft. The joint US-ASEAN statement issued after the summit did not mentioned the release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi or more than 2000 political prisoners, clearly indicates that ASEAN has bowed down to the Burmese stand rather than the US and this clearly paints the picture that ASEAN cannot supplement the US efforts. Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak has said that the reference to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and political prisoners was dropped from the statement, because “there is no consensus on this matter.” It is obvious that Singapore and Thailand do lucrative business with the Junta, and others such as Vietnam have come out strongly against any attempt to free Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, regarding this as a domestic matter which ASEAN should not interfere with. Vietnam may be hedging against any scrutiny of clampdowns on minority religious groups such as Catholics and various Buddhist sects. What hypocrisy is more apparent than its new Charter and Human Rights Commission that has recently passed was not able to effectively support US efforts to nudge Burma toward reform.

It is a foregone conclusion that domestic policy reflects very much on the foreign policy of every country and US is no exception. In recent years, the world has been shifting from a unipolar world structure to a multipolar one, bringing an endless stream of new challenges and Burma’s lockdown suggested the White House exerted little effort to win concessions from Asia in general and ASEAN in particular.

China has emerged from the global economic crisis, strengthened in its role as international banker, its economy powering ahead and its cash-rich companies prowling for opportunities from Africa to Australia. In the summary way that Beijing dismissed Mr. Obama’s entreaties on a range of subjects, China sent a strong signal that it believes the relationship has been profoundly altered. Mr. Obama’s dilemma in dealing with a newly assertive China was highlighted by sparring over Beijing’s policy of keeping its currency pegged tightly to a falling dollar. The issue is important to a U.S. president under mounting domestic pressure from rising joblessness.

One wonders of whether the US understands the rationale of the Burmese Generals of just why the Junta wants to talk right now. Sanctions have been no more than “modest inconveniences” to the generals, suggesting that getting these removed is not at the top of the junta’s list. And what more proof is more wanted than Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the political prisoners are still under lock and key while the Junta`s army is readying to launch its summer offensive on the ethnic nationalities. It coincides that the Obama administration is clearly seeking ways to get around the impasse As Andrew Selth put it “The Obama administration seems to understand that there are few practical ways for the international community to influence a government that is deeply committed to its self-appointed role in national affairs, does not care for the welfare of its own people, does not observe international norms and is protected by powerful friends and allies.”

The fact is that the US was unable to get language pushing for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s release and any notion that the American compromise on talking to the Junta might be reciprocated with an ASEAN compromise on its own aversion to sanctions. But this is very far-fetched. ASEAN dared not admit its own failed “Constructive Engagement Policy” and now it seems that Washington is admitting that sanctions are at a dead-end. In the end it was the average Burmese that suffered.

The current US policy with Burma is a cover to allow it to work more closely with the ASEAN region in general, to stave off growing Chinese economic and diplomatic clout in Southeast Asia. One should remember that reform is not just about prisoner release or a more free and fair and credible elections. The world aware of the grossly undemocratic Nargis Constitution that Than Shwe’s administration has drafted.” Without addressing the Constitution issue, John Dale of George Mason University said that the US policy could flounder. “Can democratic elections, even with the international community’s stamp of approval, produce a democratic outcome in Burma when the Constitution that it would legitimate is structured to retain military rule with no significant checks and balances” We could not comprehend of what the people at the helm of the American administration is heading for

For the current American Administration thirty years of episodic relations with ASEAN marked out new areas for cooperation.  President Obama invited the members of the ASEAN Inter-Governmental Commission on Human Rights to the United States in 2010, and proposed a ministerial-level meeting on energy next year as well. Such statements are negotiated well in advance of the meeting, and the drama is often in small details and subtle shadings. But, the lacking of the release of Daw Aung Sang Suu Kyi and political prisoners was the diplomatic equivalent of a draw which hurt the people of Burma most. Some aspects of the statement were more subtle but important nevertheless. Nuclear non-proliferation is a renewed priority in the West in view of developments in North Korea and Iran, and it offered the ASEAN leaders an opportunity to laud the concept of a Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone, a proposal that had met with strong US resistance when it first emerged in the 1980s. For its part, Washington was able to echo Obama’s speech in Tokyo last week, with the description of a shared vision of a regional architecture that is “inclusive,” code for a broader Asian-Pacific community rather than one more narrowly limited to Asia that would exclude the United States.

Whether the US is a paper tiger or not will be seen in the near future with what stick US will hit the Generals if the latter refused to comply or bluff its way around as they had already demonstrated.