Report 1.

MEASURES ON CEASEFIRE GROUPS
According to the local populace, the Burmese Army, the State Peace and Development Council
(SPDC), is drawing up plans to establish a new army headquarters in Chi-bway, in the Kachin
State. The new base will be situated close to Pan-Wa, the headquarters of the National Defence
Army-Kachin (NDA-K). Another significant military operation has been the increased number of
Burmese forces being deployed to the southern Karen State, close to areas occupied by the
New Mon State Party (NMSP). These recent activities of the SPDC in the Kachin State and the
Karen State are being regarded as measures to monitor the activities and movements of the
two cease-fire groups, namely the KIO and the NMSP.

MEETING WITH RELATIONS MINISTER U AUNG KYI AND DAW AUNG SAN SUU KYI
Minister for Relations U Aung Kyi and Opposition Leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi held two
meetings on the 3rd of October and 7th of October 2009 respectively at the Government State
Guest House. Details of the meetings have not been disclosed, however, speculations are
focused on a letter dated 25th September, sent to Senior-General Than Shwe by Daw Aung San
Suu Kyi relating to the lifting of sanctions on Myanmar/Burma. Unconfirmed rumours have
surfaced for the possibility of a meeting the SPDC Chairman and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Neither
side have made comments with regards to this matter or the two meetings.
DEMOCRACY ACTIVISTS ARRESTED BY GOVERNMENT
Four democracy activists, Daw Naw Ohn Hla, Ma San San Myint, Ma Cho and Ma Cho Cho Lwin
were arrested by the authorities on Saturday the 3rd of October. The four female activists are
members of the National League for Democracy (NLD) and prominent members of a group
which organizes the weekly well-wishing ceremony held on the Shwedagon Pagoda every
Tuesday for the release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Other activists arrested in Yangon include Ko
Nyein Chan who has been charged under Article 33 – the Electronics Act – for inciting unrest by
composing songs. Another youth activist arrested is Ko Aung Ko Min who together with Ko
Nyein Chan face many other criminal charges and are awaiting their sentences.
TENSIONS RISE OVER JUNTAS’ CRONY CAR IMPORTS
Tensions between the Burmese junta crony Tay Za and the Union of Myanmar Economic
Holdings, Ltd (UMEHL), a military-owned conglomerate, are rising over the recent import of
1000 Toyota Corolla Mark-II cars, of which 900 cars had been allocated to Tay Za and only 100
cars going to UMEHL. Tay Za is regarded as a major player in the Burmese economy and has
close ties with the leading generals. His privileged position is highlighted by the fact that the
regime normally allows only a few thousand cars to be imported each year and the only two
people who can issue import licenses for cars are Senior-General Than Shwe and Vice Senior-General Maung Aye—the two highest-ranking members of the ruling junta. Furthermore, the
recent ban imposed on cooking oil imported by Tay Za’s Htoo Trading sanctioned by the staterun
Food and Drug Administration with the heavy handed UMEHL approach has made matters
worse. The UMEHL is a military-controlled enterprise designed to maintain an advantage over
privately owned companies and it is involved in a wide range of businesses, including the
import of staple foods, automobiles and electronic equipment. Under these circumstances, Tay
Za and the UMEHL have now become rivals in the running of the Burmese economy with both
having strong military backing.
ANALYSIS
The activities undertaken by the SPDC forces in the Kachin and Karen State are clear signals to
the cease-fire groups that their daily activities will be closely monitored and that they will not
be granted self-autonomy with a free-hand. The army has located itself in strategic positions to
the cease-fire groups in order for them to be more easily and effectively controlled. What is still
unclear and remains to be seen are the plans laid down for the other remaining cease-fire
groups and the actual transformation of the cease-fire groups into Border Guard Forces by the
SPDC prior to the 2010 elections. The two meetings between Relations Minister U Aung Kyi and
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi can be regarded as positive steps in the right direction. However, these
meetings must be reinforced by meaningful and concrete actions rather than just goodwill
gestures. Leading upto the 2010 elections, detention and arrests of prominent opposition
members will continue since it is the major strategy of the government to totally demolish any
organizations or individuals who will pose a threat to their implementation of their Seven Step
Road Map. The rising tensions between Tay Za and the UMEHL should not be discarded lightly
since vast sums of money and financial interests are at stake. Under the circumstances and due
to the military backing on both sides, if left unattended this rivalry or bitter tensions could
become the driving wedge leading to disagreement and divisions within the ruling SPDC elite
and the military as a whole.

Report 2.

MORE POLITICAL ACTIVISTS SENTENCED
Sentences ranging from 5 to 10 years were passed to eleven political activists including one
Buddhist monk by the Rangoon Northern District Court in Insein Prison. Ashin Sandimar, Tun
Naung, Kyaw Zaw Min, Zaw Moe, Wunna Nwe, Zin Min Shein were sentenced to 10 years
imprisonment for violating the Explosives Law (Section 3) and Unlawful Association Law
(Section 6), while Saw Maung, Aung Moe Lwin, Moe Htet Nay, Tun Lin Aung, Zaw Latt, Naing
Win and Tun Lin Oo were sentenced to five years for violating Section 6.
FOUR ACTIVISTS RELEASED
Four political activists who had been charged under Articles 122 – Punishment of High Treason,
Article 149 – Unlawful assembly guilty of offence committed in prosecution of common object
and Article 302 – Punishment for Murder, have been released after serving their sentences
respectively. The four had reportedly been sentenced for their alleged involvement in the 1988
demonstrations.

PRO-JUNTA DEMOCRATIC KAREN BUDDHIST ARMY (DKBA) MOVES TOWARDS ROLE AS
BORDER GUARD FORCES
Plans are now underway for the pro-junta Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) to be
transformed into Border Guard Forces under the direct control of the Commander-in-Chief of
the Defence Services. According to DKBA officials, the number of battalions to be formed have
not been finalized, but upon completion the DKBA members appointed to the Border Guard
Forces would be given military and administration training in December in Mawlamyaing,
Moulmein in the Mon State. The new battalions will be comprised of 360 personnel, 30
Burmese Army members in each battalion, with the highest ranking position being a Major for
the DKBA, and the age range of 18 to 50 for personnel in each battalion. However, some
members within the group were disappointed with the age limitations and rank, many of whom
rank above major, would face demotion once the transformation takes place.
AUNG SAN SUU KYI MEETS DIPLOMATS
Opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi met with three Western diplomats on Friday 9
October at the Seinle Kantha Government State Guest House. The meeting was attended by the
British Ambassador, Mr. Andrew Richard Heyn, the Charge d’Affaires a.i. of the US Embassy, Mr.
Thomas L. Vajda, and the Charge d’Affaires a.i. of the Australian Embassy, Mr. SimonChristopher Starr. The meeting was arranged on the request of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, with
discussions focused on sanctions imposed on Burma, according to NLD spokesman U Nyan Win.

NLD LEADERS MEET EU DELEGATION IN RANGOON
Central Executive Committee (CEC) members of the National League for Democracy (NLD), U
Than Tun, U Nyunt Wai, U Hla Pe, U Soe Myint, U Win Tin and U Khin Maung Shwe hosted a
delegation of diplomats representing the European Union (EU) at the NLD Headquarters on 14
October 2009. The talks between the two sides were focused on the 2010 Elections, Aung San
Suu Kyi’s recent offer to work with the SPDC and the NLD Party’s calls for a review of the 2008
Constitution. The 20-member EU delegation was headed by the Swedish Ambassador to
Burma/Myanmar, acting in his capacity as the current chairman of the EU. The delegation
included Rangoon-based Ambassadors from Germany, Britain, France and Italy, as well as
Bangkok-based Ambassadors from Spain, the Netherlands, Poland and Finland.
ANALYSIS
The continued purge by the authorities of political activists continues as the 2010 Elections
draw closer. The government’s aim is to paralyse and remove all opposition which could pose
as threats in the run up to the 2010 Elections. The sentencing of the 11 political activists in the
past week can be regarded as part of this objective. Young activists have now become the main
targets of this purge by the government and many more will follow in the run-up to the
elections. After the recent clashes with the Kokang, the DKBA is now in the process of
transforming itself into the Board Guard Forces to avoid any clashes with the Burmese Army –
the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC). However, some differences on the
composition of the battalions within the DKBA itself could become issues which would need to
be address prior to any official agreement with the SPDC and the DKBA. The meetings between
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, NLD CEC members and diplomats can be regarded as good signs and
future meetings on a regular basis could help the present political impasse. The EU delegation’s
visit was more of a fact-finding mission rather than being substantive. However, the
opportunity to raise and discuss such critical issues is a positive development. Meetings
between the SPDC, the NLD and the ethnic nationalities are critical in paving the way for
dialogue and to bringing all sides to the discussion table to achieve peace, national
reconciliation and democracy.