Imitating Robert Mugabe and not to be outdone by Mohammed Gadaffi or Hugo Chavez, General Thein Sein the Burmese Prime Minister will be seen New York`s UN General Assembly. After resisting the civilized world for 14 years, it seems that the Junta has score a major victory against the West led by the United States without yielding inch of releasing Daw Aung San Suu Kyi or other 2000 political prisoners.

Obviously, this is the fruition of Washington’s new policy of direct and deeper engagement with the Junta but one have serious doubts whether it will really help at all to bring about change in the country, which has been in the tight grip of the Burmese Army for more than half a century? Some caution not to be so desperate but to give the Obama administration a chance in their new experimental approach and hope for the best by cooperating and supporting.

UNGA is just a side show as the Junta’s representative will definitely meet the policy makers where he is sure to the China Card. The fact that the Junta has give the ultimatum to more than 10,000 business Chinese residing in Burma will not only gain kudos from the mass of the people but also send good signal to Washington the Burmese army mean business with the 25,000strong ethnic groups of Wa and Kachin which has close relations with China. The Chinese on their side has already prepared three refugee camps for the influx of Burmese ethnic refugees estimated to be nearly a million.

The Junta has wittingly exploited the situation that the people of Burma hates the Chinese business encroachment, not to mention the Akyab-Kunming oil pipe line under construction, where the Chinese after dumping the Middle East oil will pump it together with country`s offshore oil to the industrial heart of Kunming. Burma has a good record of fighting against the Chinese and now with 4.5 billion dollars worth of Chinese arms in his hand he had demonstrated that he dared to take on the Chinese by subduing Kokang, whose ancestors are Chinese of the Ming dynasty allowed to stay in that area by the Burmese kings. The Junta wants help if not recognition.

. China has strengthened its border patrol and has already warned the Junta to protect its citizens, but will blood be thicker than water or oil is still yet to be seen. If it choose the latter where China desperately needs energy the Junta can be counted as an American ally that dared to challenge China and surely the reward will be some sort of recognition or legalizing the regime`s work even now Hillary Clinton has said, “the Burmese elections should not be dismissed at this time.” However, if it chose the former, then the Burmese army will have to fight tooth and nail to the Beijing backed ethnic forces and probably will need the help of the West particularly the West to be seen as the frontline state endeavoring to stop the Chinese imperialism. To prevent this win win situation for the Junta, the best way is to point out to the Chinese that their Burma policy was wrong and detrimental to China and the world and to coax the Chinese to drop their veto on Burma at the UNSC and let the UN takes it course of chastising the vagabond.

Kanbawza Win