The Sino-Burma news of last one month was not so good but it did not come out of blue. An influential intellectual analysis report by ICG tried to tone down the real Chinese influence over Burmese junta ever existed. Even Burmese dissidents who studied China’s importance agreed with the foreigners’ observation.

However China has been true player of post-independent important Burma events. It continues does so. The strongest and the first armed revolt against the rulers in Rangoon were the Burmese communist forces. The White flag faction of Burmese communist party enjoyed tremendous support from the Chinese Communist regime. Burmese government of that time was fortunate to survive as the West through the UN gave backing to flush out Kumington Chinese while Cold War was on the stage. In 1967 the anti-Chinese riots occurred in Rangoon and Mandalay. Those who took part in those riots are now either colonels or brigadier generals in Burma army.

Again as a U-tern took place and the endurance of the unpopular military coup in 1988 was obviously dependent on Chinese awesome support. It has been over two decades and the observers, as they did as usual, tried to look from a difference angle and said it was not that much. Observers’ views are not always true, the history tells us.

The official Burma policy of one-party China is the same as that of the largest democracy India, the semi-democracy ASEAN nations and the so-called non-allied NAM countries. The non-interference doctrine is popular word of them but when necessary. It is the fact that the diplomatic languages are interpreted by diplomats to fit in a situation. It can be otherwise at any time.

It is necessary to understand why China speaks with new tone and the junta’s rejoinder since the outbreak of fighting in Kokang region. It was understood that China wanted not democracy but stability which could flourish business and trading. It can be true because fighting and influx of refugees destabilize the region controlled for years by an ethnic Chinese militia and Chinese authorities had to tell to handle the situation properly. In fact the telling was more than that and said to take effective measures to safeguard the lawful rights of Chinese citizens. Care for own citizens in a foreign country means a duty of a responsible government. Millions of Burmese in any country cannot enjoy such guardianship under this military regime.

Chinese authorities did follow-up and recently lodged a representation with the Burmese side and urged to thoroughly investigate the case as soon as possible, severely punish the law-breakers, and inform China of the results. China also called on Burma to take concrete measures to dodge recurrence of similar incidents.

The response by her Paulphaw ally was that the Burmese regime had ordered Chinese citizens who have no legal credentials to leave the in the Kokang zone.

“The Foreign Ministry and the Chinese embassy in Burma remind Chinese citizens and companies who are already in Northern Burma to pay attention to security risks,” said the statement, also posted on the ministry’s website. The orders of setting up three refugee camps are around the Salween River and funding to build the camps came directly from Beijing not from Kunming. It is also interesting that Chinese tip of presence of arms factories provoked fighting there in August. One report said the small arms from that region reached to Middle East to fight against Israel. Maybe made-in-Kokang assault rifles are cheaper than made-in-China AK 47 and Chinese provided the tip to Burmese junta.

However China has to weigh between cross-border business and billion dollar gas pipeline. The recent developments are part of global trend involving Burma at the centre of regional politics. The new American administration is proactive to adopt fresh Burma policy. Many are talking about sanctions. But lifting or not-lifting sanctions are just a part of new setting. UN Secretary General urged the ASEAN again to play a role in Burma. So far, it looks the regional dynamics lacks India’s contribution as the UPA-2 government maintains silence on Burma.

The question of what the regime will concede to Obama is fascinating. Those ethnic armed groups which have drug business records are to sacrifice then. America will be happier if one or two wanted drug lords are extradited. Then the ceasefire groups which are resisting transforming to border guard have to yield. In due course the election in 2010 will get a nod from the West. Killing two birds with one stone is what the junta always sought.

America’s new global approach is to cooperate with any kind of powers no matter what. Before it could become number one, China of today will contend with below per status. Chinese militias and Chinese traders on border will have to pay the price. In a chess game, double sacrifice may win ultimately.

Tint Swe

28-9-09