August 11, 2009 : Htun Aung Gyaw

The Wall street journal article “Myanmar Dissidents Contemplate Concession” on August 11, 2009, made me smile.  I have been fighting against the regime since December of 1974 student strike called U Thant uprising.  As a senior politician, I know the mentality of the regime and the opposition that I have been deeply in touch for more than two decades.  The new path of NCGUB’s “National Reconciliation” proposal is not new to all of us. It is an old unsuccessful path.  It is the path walked by NLD from the beginning since post 1990 election.  I bet the selling of the National Reconciliation proposal by NCGUB, NCUB and its hand picked organizations will not get any positive results.  The regime will not utter a word to them.  Even though they dropped the demands to release political prisoners and the 1990 election results, still the generals will show no positive sign, not a single one.

The Jakarta convention will explain its package (proposal) called “National Reconciliation” (NR) to the foreign diplomats and then intend to sell their package to the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).  The intention of this convention is to get support from the foreign governments financially and politically.  According to the package if the SPDC agrees on their idea and start a dialogue with the opposition, the first thing is to rewrite the 2008 constitution.

Let me explain fact-by-fact why I say it is only a dream.

The current coalition of NCGUB, NCUB and the seven alliances group does not represent democratic forces in exile as a whole. They have ability to do some work inside and abroad because they are funded by the US based NED, Norwegian government, and some individual donors.  They have funds so they can do some jobs but the question is, is that making them major dissident groups?  Upcoming Jakarta Burma convention on August 12-13 is only made up of seven groups.

There are many potential leaders who have links inside Burma and running their own groups.  These groups are now networking and information sharing to each other with respect and passion.  They did not receive any funding, rather they are using their own pocket money to free Burma.  Some work as factory workers, restaurant chefs, security guards, taxi drivers, office clerks and so forth.  They are collecting money within their trusted friends for promoting inside activities.   Some of their works are more efficient then the so called major groups.

Activists inside Burma only want to work with people who they know very well and trusted for their actions not to those who have money and trying to buy the movement.  It is the reality today Burma politics.  That is the reason why the major groups are not successful in doing movement inside Burma.  For example, deciding a tactic of how to fight against the referendum for 2008 Constitution  was split into two approaches.  Grass roots activists said  “No Vote” and major group said “Vote No”.  Major group got US 500,000 to run the  “Vote No” operation but it failed miserably.  Why? Because their connection inside are money related activists not real one who have passion and commitment.

The groups of NCGUB are not recognized as major groups by Burmese communities around the world.  Some only have two members under their names and others have no more than 10 members.  The so called top major organization NCGUB only has seven ministers.  It is only an organization not a government.

One of the major organizations SYCB east coast based in Thai-Burma border has only a few members and its east coast leader  from India- Burma side was not informed or invited because he did not accept the sell-out option and was a frank critic.  It proved that SYCB is not a major group.  Also many so called leaders are members of different groups and wearing many hats.  For example SYCB members are also from ABSDF, DPNS, ABSFU, NDD and youth groups, also they are members of NCUB, and DAB. The same faces showed up in different organizational meetings as members, is the reality of today exile politics.

My argument is those loose and weak organizations that laid out their plan for NR has no leverage power compared to the NLD party, which won the 82% of the parliamentary seats.  NLD has tremendous support from the people and its leader Aung San Suu Kyi is not only a leader of Burma but also a leading figure in world politics as a Democracy icon.  The regime ignored when NLD reached out for NR, why should they now accept powerless weak NCGUB coalition offer?  What kind of benefit could they gain? None.

Ignoring the call to release Aung San Suu Kyi and political prisoners from the United Nations, European Unions, ASEAN and the US, the Junta’s court sentenced Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to three years and hard labor on August 11, 2009 proved that the “National Reconciliation” proposal is doomed.  The junta will go forward to its planned election in 2010 without a doubt.

Mr. Nyo Ohn Myint from seven allies group said, “We are not only thinking about what we want, but what the regime can and cannot accept…” The NR proposal dropped the demand of 1990 election results, and the release of political prisoners that Mr. Myint’s group thinks the regime cannot accept.  According to his words the group is thinking of a possible offer that the regime can accept.  As we know, that possible offer is National Reconciliation.

The rational thinking is the regime can free all political prisoners if they want; it is not a big deal for them to do it.  The regime can put them in prison again if they want, releasing and recapturing political activists are not big deals because there is no consistent law in Burma.  Furthermore, the regime is using political prisoners as hostages to create leverage for them.

The regime’s plan for military dominant rule in 2010 election is entirely based on 2008 constitution that they have been forcefully pushing for nearly two decades.  The offer of the National Reconciliation approach is based on rewriting the military’s most valuable constitution, their brain child.  What option can the military accept and what options can they not?  Will they be releasing political prisoners or changing the 2008 constitution?  The regime will not accept any groups to change its planned constitution that NCGUB and its allies are planning to discuss under the name of NR.

One rational thinking is NCGUB might know what option it might be when they offer the NR proposal to the regime and know that it will be rejected.  If so why are they doing it?  When analyzing NCGUB activities, they gave a press conference and announced that more than ten major organizations will attend the Jakarta Convention and said it is the first time in more than a decade.  This statement highlights two points:

1.  They want their donors to know that they are united because NCGUB refused to sign the Credential Challenge option with NCUB.  The split between NCGUB and NCUB harm their credibility and lost regular funding from donors.  NCGUB and NCUB want to show the world (donor groups) that they are now united.

2.  NCGUB has no ability to host a conference since it was formed in 1991.  It has no desire or confidence to host a conference and explain to the audience that what they are doing and what they need from them.  But they attended the meeting hosted by activist groups when they were invited, they never initiated to call or invite activists and grass root leaders to discuss about working together.

Only thing they say is “we have no money”.  They are very secretive and stay distant from potential activists.  They only care how to please their donors, not activists who are fighting against the regime within their capacity.  Once in the meeting Mr. Sein Win was asked how he spent the funding and what he is doing.  He said, “I do not have to inform all of you guys, if you pay tax to us, we will inform you what we are doing, I only informed to our donors because they give us money”.  Now they are inviting so called major groups to attend the convention for the first time in a decade but many activist organizations are left out without knowing it and they shamelessly said democratic forces are behind them.

The main reason for the convention is to sell their NR package to foreign countries and donors by telling them they are united and they have a good plan but they need funds to do their plans to free Burma.

1.       The first achievement is resentment from Democratic forces for pretending as an umbrella organization.

2.       The second achievement is it creates confusion among activists of what strategy they have to follow: go against the 2010 election or support it.

Thaung Htun who represent NCGUB said , “ There is the danger that the main political activists or stakeholders like the NLD and major ethnic groups will be sidelined” if they don’t in some way participate in the election”.  The die hard attempt by NCGUB is finding a way to surrender the military clique and to enter the election.

But when the regime rejected all the options made by the opposition, NCGUB activities will move back to square one, shouting more sanctions, credential challenge, responsible to protect (R2P), international criminal court, and so on.

In conclusion, if the organizations funded by the west are still trying to monopolize funds and hijack the democratic movement and marginalize potential groups, the movement will go nowhere and finally the regime will win the 2010 election and military dominant rule will prolong in Burma for another decade or more.

The Burmese oppositions in exile need to compromise with each other and call the Burma Congress with potential groups for reconciliation process first to unite each other not the military regime.  People wearing many hats need to abandon all the titles and honestly participate in the congress as equal status not higher or lower than any participant.  Then, from this united umbrella group they will draw the strategy, which has practical approach and not for donor favor policy.  The best approach should be in line with the current political climate agreeable by majority agreement.  Then the movement will go forward.

Htun Aung Gyaw was one of the student leaders in U Thant uprising in December 1974.  He led the movement with Salai Tin Mg Oo who was the first student leader hung by the military led Socialist government.  Htun was again involved in the June Student demonstration in 1975.  He was captured after the demonstration and sentenced to life imprisonment.  He was released in 1980 under the general amnesty law for all political prisoners.  He again participated in the four eight movement and led the group called Freedom Fighter of Burma (FFB).  Htun left to the Thai-Burma border to join the ethnic resistance groups after peaceful demonstration was brutally crushed.  He was elected as the first chairman of the student organization called All Burma Student Democratic Front known as ABSDF.  Htun resettled in the USA in 1992 and got his Masters in Asian Studies from Cornell University.  Currently he is the Chairman of Civil Society for Burma (CSB) based in Ithaca, New York.