By: LARRY JAGAN

Published: 9/07/2009 at 09:28 AM

Newspaper section: News

Everyone seems to want to dismiss UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s ill-timed trip to Burma as a disaster.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expresses disappointment at being denied a visit to jailed opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, while briefing reporters on the outcome of his second meeting with the Burmese junta chief on July 4 at the airport in Naypyidaw. – AP

Although he seems to have left the country empty-handed, on what was seen beforehand as a crucial visit to strengthen the UN’s role in the country and encourage the junta to be inclusive and transparent in its national reconciliation process, his score card is not as bad as those who want to write his trip off as a major mistake, without looking at what he may have achieved.

The UN chief obviously was personally rebuffed by the junta’s top general, when he denied him access to the Lady _ who is currently in Insein prison on trial for allegedly breaking the conditions of her house aarrest.

Mr Ban was obviously personally disappointed by this, as he believed he had established a special relationship with Senior General Than Shwe during his discussions with him last year  and was sure he would listen favourably to his request.

“I’m deeply disappointed,” Mr Ban told journalists at Rangoon airport when he arrived by plane from the capital Naypyidaw, after a second meeting with the top junta leader.

“I think they have missed a very important opportunity of demonstrating their willingness to commit to continuing reconciliation with all political leaders. It is a setback to the international community’s efforts to provide a helping hand to Myanmar at this time.”

But is it really such a big deal _ symbolically important for sure? Even Mr Ban on reflection seems to concede this much.

“My meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi, however, should not be seen as the only benchmark for success or failure of my visit,” he told journalists in Bangkok after he flew out of Rangoon.

But of course he would say that, wouldn’t he?

Access to Aung San Suu Kyi is the only card the regime has to play when dealing with the UN and its Western detractors.

But the UN involvement in Burma is far greater than that, and involves political, development and humanitarian issues.

The photo opportunity of the senior UN officials, even the boss, is really a matter for the scrapbooks.

What is really important, as Aung San Suu Kyi has repeatedly said, is the start of genuine dialogue with the military regime.

And for many of the poor in Burma, the more immediate question is humanitarian aid and development assistance, especially the thousands still struggling to rebuild their homes and lives in the Irrawaddy delta after last year’s devastaing cyclone.

Mr Ban came with an extensive and detailed agenda that he laid out before the regime’s top leaders during his meetings with them.

Apart from the need for credible, political change, which the regime smugly believes is the central aim of its “road map to democracy,” the UN boss reminded the generals that they were missing out on the region’s economic miracle.

While the government has taken steps  to develop the country, tackle human trafficking and curtail opium cultivation and control the spread of the HIV/Aids problem in the country: “The reality is that millions continue to live in poverty,” Mr Ban said. “Standards of living in Myanmar remain among the lowest in Asia.

“The people of Myanmar need jobs, they need food security and they need access to health care,” Mr Ban advised the junta. “We must work to ensure that the people of Myanmar can benefit from and contribute to the regional and global economy.”

Mr Ban also made these remarks in a public address to a joint gathering of diplomats, civil leaders and representatives of community groups and international aid organisations shortly before he boarded the plane to leave.

This in itself was an important concession that the UN secretary-general’s special envoy, Ibrahim Gambari, was able to wring out of the generals in advance, a week before his boss was due to arrive.

This is something that neither  Bangladesh nor Sri Lanka allowed when the UN chief recently visited  for fear that the government would not like what he said, according to senior UN officials. The junta leaders will certainly not have liked what they heard, though most of the country’s businessmen, middle class and poor would have endorsed his remarks unreservedly.

Now it remains unclear whether Mr Ban was able to get any concessions on any of the major issues they discussed during the two meetings with Gen Than Shwe _ national reconciliation, economic development, dealing with the cease-fire groups and humanitarian assistance.

One thing is for sure: Gen Than Shwe was never going to make any public concessions during the visit.

“These things happen in the weeks after UN envoys leave _ like in the case of the last time Aung San Suu Kyi was freed from house arrest

[on May 6, 2002]. Mr Razali

[the envoy at the time] was clearly told: it will happen two weeks after you leave the country,” a senior diplomat involved in the process said.

“This is not a make or break trip,” the secretary-general’s special envoy to Burma, Mr Gambari, told the Bangkok Post on the eve of the visit. “The important thing is to keep the process of UN engagement in the country going, and, if possible strengthen and deepen it.”

While Mr Ban raised the issues of the release of all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi as soon as possible, the resumption of talks between the military and the pro-democracy parties, and making sure the planned elections in 2010 are inclusive and credible, he also discussed ways the UN could support the Burmese government’s plans for economic development, especially in the agriculture, fisheries and livestock sector.

On the extremely vexed question of post-Nargis recovery plans related to humanitarian assistance, he raised the need especially for the swift issuance of visas.

“I discussed, as well, the expansion of humanitarian assistance beyond the delta area.These are all areas where I expect the Myanmar government to demonstrate progress in the very near future,” he told Bangkok-based journalists.

So what assurrances did he receive from the senior general?

“I was assured that the Myanmar authorities will make sure that this election will be held in a fair and free and transparent manner,” Mr Ban did say after his first meeting with the general.

But to his other key suggestions, the junta’s response is pending.

“It’s too early to tell whether Than Shwe completely rebuffed Ban Ki-moon, the regime seldom makes concessions during these kinds of visits. It’s usually before or after,” said Derek Tonkin, former British ambassador to Thailand and  veteran Burma watcher.

“I sense that there may be a few concessions later, like the release of non-political prisoners, but little else,” he added.

Diplomats and UN officials in Rangoon believe there will be some goodwill gestures from the regime in the weeks to come.

“We can expect some releases of political prisoners _ maybe even hundreds as the UN SG requested during his talks with the Senior General,” said a western diplomat in Rangoon.

But most analysts fear that the UN’s role in brokering national reconciliation between the two sides has hit a dead end. So, as always, whether Mr Ban or Burma’s top general won this round, the Burmese people have lost again. But the UN is unlikely to keep trying to assist Burma in whatever ways might be possible.

Mr Ban will brief the Security Council later this week on his visit.

Then the United Nations will be expected to make the next move in what is becoming a serious chess game.

“The question today is this: how much longer can Myanmar afford to wait for national reconciliation, democratic transition and full respect for human rights,” Ban Ki-moon said in his public address in Rangoon.

“The cost of delay will be counted in wasted lives, lost opportunities and prolonged isolation from the international community.”

The real question is how can the UN actually help bring about these changes that will allow the Burmese people to enjoy the fundamental rights enshrined in the UN charter, to which Burma was one of the first signatories.