MAY 31, 2009 – Burma News Headlines
May 31st, 2009
1. Slowdown Strains Myanmar Economy
2. Forget Kim Jong Il. The harder problem is Burma
3. Charles James defends Chevron around the world
4. India set to sign free trade pact with ASEAN by October
5. Online campaign gathers support for Myanmar’s Suu Kyi
6. Venezuela, Iraq, Myanmar, Spain, Nigeria, Cuba
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MAY 29, 2009
Slowdown Strains Myanmar Economy
Scarce Jobs, Dwindling Remittances and Limited Credit Strain Economy Further Amid Tension Over Dissident’s Trial
| By a WALL STREET JOURNAL Staff Reporter
YANGON, Myanmar — Myanmar’s financial system and economy are largely cut off from the outside world — but not the global economic crisis.
As the country’s military junta wraps up its trial of dissident Aung San Suu Kyi, conditions in the capital and rural areas illustrate the effects of the slowdown on this isolated nation’s already-tenuous economy. Key sectors such as agriculture and tourism are reeling, and business in the commercial center of Yangon has dwindled, residents and economists say.
Credit has dried up, remittance income is falling, and thousands of workers returning from abroad are discovering that jobs are scarce.
“People don’t have money these days, and if they do have it, they don’t spend it,” says Kyi Kyi Win, a saleswoman at a store selling inexpensive shirts, pants and brand-name knockoffs a short drive from Ms. Suu Kyi’s lakeside residence. Last year, she says, the shop was selling $300 to $400 in merchandise a day, but now it is selling less than $100 a day.
Myanmar’s economic health is critical now, as discontent over Ms. Suu Kyi’s fate spreads. The 63-year-old Nobel laureate is accused of violating the terms of her house arrest, imposed by the government six years ago, by allowing an American well-wisher to visit her residence without state approval.
Some residents say they hope the verdict-which is widely expected to be “guilty,” potentially resulting in up to five years in prison for Ms. Suu Kyi-could ignite protests and destabilize a regime that has ruled the resource-rich nation since the 1960s.
[Myanmar photo] Reuters
Maung Myint, Myanmar’s deputy foreign minister, accused critics of meddling in the country’s affairs.
On Thursday, according to Reuters, Myanmar’s Deputy Foreign Minister Maung Myint addressed international outrage at the trial, accusing critics of meddling in the country’s affairs and denying that the prosecution of the opposition leader was a political or human-rights issue.
There is little indication of serious unrest now, with many residents afraid of a military crackdown if they publicly express dissatisfaction. On Thursday, a man was arrested near the prison where Ms. Suu Kyi is on trial after he shouted for her release, witnesses said, the Associated Press reported. Meanwhile, several hundred people gathered peacefully near the prison.
The relatively calm circumstances could change if the verdict is seen as harsh. Ms. Suu Kyi is widely viewed as Myanmar’s most legitimate leader after her political organization, the National League for Democracy, won Myanmar’s last elections in 1990; the government ignored the results.
Economic distress has played a role in past unrest. The last major protests in September 2007, which were crushed by the military, were ignited largely by a surge in fuel costs. Similar unrest in 1988 came after years of disastrous socialist economic policies that left residents desperate for reform.
Myanmar’s economy has long suffered from high unemployment, minimal foreign investment and crumbling infrastructure. The local banking system collapsed in 2003, with 20 or more private banks closing shop after a run on deposits, and it has yet to fully recover.
With few successful domestic industries, the country must rely heavily on sales of natural gas, timber and other commodities to the few countries that continue to do significant business with the regime, notably China, Thailand and India.
U.S. and European sanctions in place for years prevent all but a few Western companies from operating there. Commodities prices have collapsed over the past year, and with few links to external capital markets, Myanmar is unable to raise cash for new lending.
Conditions in Yangon are especially difficult. Fewer than 300,000 of its six million residents have mobile phones, power blackouts are becoming more common and many taxis are so worn that the road is visible through holes in the floorboards. Abandoned colonial buildings rot in the monsoon weather, with vines growing out of broken red-brick windows.
“Ask every shop, every entrepreneur, and they will tell you business is bad,” says a local economist who used to teach at a Yangon university and now runs an economic journal. His publication is drawing only $200 to $300 in advertisements a week, he says, compared with $700 to $800 before the global economic meltdown.
Myanmar doesn’t provide timely economic information and rarely communicates with the foreign media. Official data indicate the economy grew 10% or more per year since 2000, but the Asian Development Bank and private analysts say such data likely are exaggerated, with actual growth probably less than half the government’s estimates and headed lower this year.
The situation isn’t all bad. Lower commodities prices have helped ease inflation, which hit 30% in recent years, and weaker demand for imported goods has improved the country’s trade balance, boosting the local currency, the kyat. Some shops, such as computer dealers, that cater to Myanmar’s coterie of wealthy elite, say business is holding up.
The government’s finances are also in relatively good shape. With the help of natural-gas revenue-including $2 billion in annual supplies to Thailand-the government has more than $3 billion in foreign-exchange reserves, and it has significantly improved tax collection, the Asian Development Bank says. But natural-gas revenue has fallen by as much as 50% this year, says Sean Turnell, a Myanmar expert at Macquarie University in Sydney. In addition, the past year has been disastrous for agriculture, which accounts for about 45% of Myanmar’s gross domestic product.
Cyclone Nargis, which killed 135,000 people a year ago, wiped out much of the equipment and livestock in Myanmar’s vital southern rice bowl, and many indebted families have been unable to replace both. Prices for beans, the country’s other key farm crop with sizable exports to India, fell drastically this year, and a lack of credit has left farmers unable to raise money for new planting.
Kyi Thein, a farmer north of Yangon, says he is thinking of selling off his last two acres of land if conditions don’t improve soon. He sold his other four acres after bad weather cut his yields and made farming unprofitable.
Tourism is suffering, too. Until a few years ago, it was seen as a promising source of income for Myanmar, employing 500,000 people or more. But arrivals have declined since 2006, according to local media reports and travel agencies, especially after the 2007 protests, Cyclone Nargis, and now the global economic crisis and Ms. Suu Kyi’s trial, which has put off travelers who fear political strife.
“Everything is frozen” since the trial began, says Aung Min Thein, a driver who ferries tourists to Yangon’s golden temples and monasteries. Zaw Gyi, who performs similar services in the ancient Myanmar city of Bagan, says he is now working just 10 days a month, compared with 25 in earlier years.
Another big problem is falling remittance income. As many as two million Myanmar citizens live overseas, economists say, sending back hundreds of millions of dollars each year that families use for food and other necessities. Mr. Turnell at Macquarie University says recent surveys have indicated a 30% drop in remittances from Thailand-a primary destination for Myanmar workers-since last year.
In other cases, workers are coming home after striking out overseas. Kyaw Zaw says he recently spent two months job-hunting in Singapore, but with the economy there in freefall, “there was nothing.”
Now the 29-year-old is in Yangon trying to run his own business, which involves renting books for about 20 cents a day. It is hard to make a profit, he says, in part because there is no way to raise capital to buy books and magazines.
http://online.wsj.com/article/
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Opinion: Forget Kim Jong Il. The harder problem is Burma
Why Washington is powerless to help Aung San Suu Kyi.
By Joel Brinkley – GlobalPost
Published: May 29, 2009 17:44 ET
Updated: May 29, 2009 17:46 ET
If they stop to think about it, Obama administration officials and other Western leaders might see a glimmer of positive news in the North Korean nuclear test last week. The problem takes attention away from the show trial in Burma, the latest manifestation of a problem as intractable as any in the world.
When Burma’s military put Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi on trial last week, for harboring a wandering American in her home for a day, on came the ritualistic denunciations of the junta and the calls for harsher penalties. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton called Suu Kyi’s trial “outrageous,” while Javier Solana, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, suggested new sanctions.
“It’s not the moment to lower sanctions,” he proclaimed. “It’s the moment to increase them.” That has been tried more than once before over the last 20 years. Every time, it has failed. The Burmese generals remain unchallenged, unmoved. Clinton acknowledged as much in February, when she said, “We are conducting a review of our policy. We are looking at what steps we could take that might influence the current government.”
But the United States has no other leverage. To understand why sanctions cannot work, consider what happened in the fall of 2007, when the Burmese junta crushed the monks’ pro-democracy demonstrations with arrests and shootings.
On clandestine radio and internet broadcasts, Burma democracy advocates pleaded with the world for help. Next door in New Delhi just then, while soldiers were torturing and killing monks, the Indian government proclaimed that Burma remained “a close and friendly neighbor” and dispatched its petroleum minister there to make a deal. He signed a three-year energy exploration agreement that fed cash to the junta.
India was not the only villain. China was selling arms to the Burmese military and buying natural gas. Thailand was paying the military dictators $2.8 billion a year for natural gas. Singapore maintained what one expert calls “an intimate engagement with the regime” and remained the favored shopping destination for the dictators and their families. Burma’s state-owned oil company was pumping natural gas for the junta. So was Chevron, the American oil company. It enjoyed a grandfather exemption from American sanctions because it had been operating there for so long.
International dysfunction ran even deeper. While the Bush Administration ratcheted up sanctions, the United Nations promoted closer engagement – and chose to Burma by the dictators’ favored name, Myanmar. Ibrahim Gambari, the U.N. envoy to the country, suggested that “a combination of strong encouragement of the authorities in Myanmar to do the right thing along with some incentives” would show that “the world is not there to just punish Myanmar.”
Well, if the Burma leaders had any inclination “to do the right thing,” we’d have heard about that decades ago. All of that presented a cacophony of conflicting approaches that emboldened the military dictators, enabling them to weather international scorn with hardly a worry. The same held true a year ago, when the Burmese government forbid international relief agencies from providing aid to thousands of people made homeless following cyclone Nargis. That brought on stronger sanctions and even louder excoriations. About that time, India worked out an agreement to give the Burmese generals $100 million for a waterway project.
In the last year, the situation has not improved. Early this year, Burma’s opposition party, Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, acknowledged the obvious and said publicly that international sanctions were of no benefit to the country or its people.
Last week, after Burma arrested Suu Kyi for allowing John Yattaw, that odd American, to stay in her house for a day after he swum across a lake to see her, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan and Australia called for her release.
But, predictably, the nations that keep the junta in power, the enablers – China, India and Thailand – had nothing to say. With those trusty allies in the junta’s back pocket, all the ranting from the rest of the world means nothing. The ruling generals are proceeding with the trial. They will mete out whatever sentence they choose, free from worry or care. If anyone doubts the outcome, take note of the courts most recent act: forbidding the defendant to put her own witnesses on the stand.
When the Obama Administration finds time to conduct that Burma policy review, here’s an idea: Rather than haranguing the junta one day and then moving on when something more important inevitably comes up, why not call the various players in this debate – the United Nations, the European Union and Burma’s Asian neighbors – to an international conference. Maybe they could agree on a unified strategy. Maybe, under the Klieg lights and the skeptical gaze of a thousand reporters, China and India and Thailand might be shamed into doing the right thing.
http://www.globalpost.com/
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Charles James defends Chevron around the world
David R. Baker, Chronicle Staff Writer
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
As Chevron Corp.’s top lawyer, Charles James has to deal with some of the oil company’s ugliest controversies.
Chevron is embroiled in a fierce, long-running court fight in Ecuador over pollution in the Amazon, a case that could cost the company $27 billion.
Texaco, which Chevron bought in 2001, used to pump oil there, dumping a mixture of water and crude oil into open pits near the wells. Texaco left the country in the 1990s and, under an agreement with the government, cleaned up some of the pits. But the company is still being sued by residents of the area who say tainted soil and water have made them sick.
Chevron also has been criticized for doing business in Burma, whose repressive rulers last week put the country’s foremost pro-democracy activist on trial. And last year, Chevron won a landmark lawsuit that accused the company of responsibility for the shooting of Nigerian villagers who occupied an offshore oil barge in 1998. A federal jury in San Francisco rejected the villagers’ claims.
Those issues will be raised again when Chevron holds its annual shareholders meeting Wednesday at the company’s San Ramon headquarters.
The Chronicle spoke with James, Chevron’s general counsel and executive vice president, about the meeting and the court cases. The interview has been edited for space and clarity.
Q: Chevron’s annual meetings have become targets for protesters criticizing the company’s record on the environment and human rights. Is there a way to defuse these controversies?
A: These issues have become front and center at our shareholders meetings not because of spontaneous concerns about these issues but because the trial lawyers behind the case in Nigeria and the trial lawyers behind the case in Ecuador have organized them.
So the way to defuse these controversies is to win these cases. We think our record as a company is a superb one.
Q: Chevron and its critics are waging bare-knuckle public relations campaigns over the Ecuador case, with Chevron accusing the Ecuadoran government of siding with the plaintiffs and interfering in the trial. Do you think a fair verdict is possible? Do you think you’ll win?
A: We have identified some very, very specific ways we think the trial process has been compromised in Ecuador. President (Rafael) Correa has all but called for a verdict against us. He’s promised the plaintiffs’ lawyers his support. That makes for very tough sledding. But I don’t go around predicting the outcome of trials.
Q: Why not settle the case out of court?
A: This case emerges from a settlement that the government of Ecuador, the current one, refuses to honor. So when you say we should settle, our first point is, we’ve settled once. The second point is, Chevron has a responsibility to its shareholders not to pay for frivolous lawsuits.
Q: There could finally be a judgment in the case this year. Should shareholders be concerned about this?
A: I think shareholders should be concerned whenever a corporation finds itself being shaken down by trial lawyers. The people who are going to be at this meeting – they don’t care about our shareholders. They want a substantial portion of our shareholders’ money.
Q: It’s been reported that the company lobbied U.S. officials to pressure the Ecuadoran government by possibly rescinding some of the country’s trade preferences. Isn’t that a form of interference in the trial?
A: I don’t think it’s interference at all. We have not gone to the U.S. government, even when the case was here (in U.S. courts), and asked for an outcome in the case.
What we’ve done with the Andean Trade Preference Act is point out that we are being denied justice here in this case. What they’re doing is repudiating their contracts for U.S. companies, and that is a basis for denial of U.S. trading status.
Hope springs eternal that one day the government of Ecuador will see the benefit of adhering to the rule of law and the judicial process.
Q: Do you expect the Nigeria case to come up again at the meeting as well, even though the case is over?
A: One of the things that’s important to us is, at the end of the day, our position was vindicated. And we were able to prove in the trial that what was alleged to have happened didn’t happen that way.
E-mail David R. Baker at dbaker@sfchronicle.com.
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India set to sign free trade pact with ASEAN by October
Business News
May 31, 2009, 7:33 GMT
New Delhi – India is set to sign a long-awaited free trade agreement with the Association of South-East Asian Nations by (ASEAN) by October, news reports said Sunday.
Free trade agreements (FTAs) with the ASEAN nations and South Korea is on the 100-day agenda of the newly elected United Progressive Alliance government, aimed at energizing the economy, PTI news agency reported.
‘All the differences have been resolved and the free trade agreement would be signed either on the sidelines of ASEAN trade ministers meet in August or at the ASEAN Summit in October,’ a senior Commerce Ministry official was quoted as saying.
The signing of the FTA would open the South-East Asian markets for Indian exporters reeling from the shrinking of their main markets in the United States and Europe during the global economic slowdown.
Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma said he would soon be approaching the federal cabinet for approval of drafts of the FTAs with ASEAN and South Korea.
Trade negotiations with the 10-nation ASEAN began in 2001 but was delayed several times due to the differences over issues like the list of restricted goods, duty cuts on farm products including palm oil and rules related to value addition.
After negotiations concluded in late 2008, new differences arose on the methods of breaking customs’ barriers.
The ASEAN bloc, comprising Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Lao, Myanmar and Cambodia, accounts for 9.6 per cent of India’s global trade.
Read more: “India set to sign free trade pact with ASEAN by October – Monsters and Critics” – http://www.monstersandcritics.
http://www.monstersandcritics.
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Online campaign gathers support for Myanmar’s Suu Kyi
(CNN) — The global drumbeat against what is widely considered the unlawful detention of Aung San Suu Kyi in Myanmar grew louder Wednesday with the launch of an online campaign to let supporters leave 64-word messages of support for her.
Aung San Suu Kyi was first detained in 1989 after mass protests against the military government.
Aung San Suu Kyi was first detained in 1989 after mass protests against the military government.
The site, 64 for Aung San Suu Kyi (http://64forsuu.com), aims to collect as many messages as it can by June 19, when the pro-democracy advocate turns 64.
By early Thursday, nearly 3,000 messages had poured in — from politicians, celebrities and other well-wishers.
“For too long the world has failed to act in the face of this intolerable injustice. That is now changing,” British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said in his message. “We must do all we can to make this birthday the last you spend without your freedom.”
Author Salman Rushdie, who shares a birthday with Suu Kyi, wrote that he “silently applauded” her endurance.
“This year, silence is impossible,” he added. “It is not any action of yours, but your house arrest, which symbolizes the suppression of Burmese democracy, that is criminal. It is your trial, not your struggle, that is unjust. On this day, on every day, I am with you.”
The call for Suu Kyi’s release has intensified in recent days, as Myanmar tries the Nobel laureate on charges of subversion. The country’s military junta, which has ruled since 1962, says she violated her house arrest when she offered temporary shelter to an American man who swam to her lakeside home.
Her supporters say the move is meant to keep her confined so she cannot participate in the general elections that the junta has scheduled for next year.
On Tuesday, U.S. President Barack Obama called for Suu Kyi’s immediate and unconditional release from an “arbitrary” and “unjustified” detention.
“Aung San Suu Kyi’s continued detention, isolation and show-trial based on spurious charges cast serious doubt on the Burmese regime’s willingness to be a responsible member of the international community,” Obama said.
Nine Nobel laureates, including Bishop Desmond Tutu of South Africa, also have called for her release, deeming her prosecution a “mockery” in a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Video Watch the U.N. secretary general explain what he is doing for Suu Kyi »
Suu Kyi, 63, has denied violating her house arrest.
Taking the stand for the first time Tuesday, Suu Kyi told a judge said she did not learn immediately that the American, John William Yettaw, swam nearly two miles and snuck into her bungalow on May 3.
She was told about the visitor the next day by one of two housekeepers who are her sole companions in the heavily guarded residence.
Suu Kyi’s two helpers are also on trial, as is Yettaw — a 53-year-old former military serviceman from Falcon, Missouri.
He left the house late May 5.
Suu Kyi has said she did not report the intrusion because she didn’t want Yettaw or anyone else to get in trouble.
But it is this silence that the Myanmar’s military junta is trying her for.
The government said Yettaw’s presence violated the conditions of Suu Kyi’s house arrest. If convicted, she could be sentenced to three to five years in prison.
The country’s regime rarely allows Suu Kyi any visitors, and foreigners are not allowed overnight stays in local households without government permission.
In his testimony, Yettaw frequently repeated that God sent him to Myanmar to protect Suu Kyi because he had a dream that a terrorist group would assassinate her.
Yettaw testified that four or five policemen saw him swimming across the lake to reach Suu Kyi’s house. They didn’t shoot at him, Yettaw said, but threw rocks.
He also testified that he had tried and failed to enter her house once before. Police found him, questioned him and then released him, he said.
That testimony fits with the defense’s assertion that the government failed to protect Suu Kyi at the crumbling colonial-era house where she has been kept under house arrest for 13 of the past 19 years.
The military junta has regularly extended her confinement.
Her latest round of home detention — after five years of confinement — expired Wednesday, according to her supporters at home and abroad.
Though the government said it considered releasing her at the end of the term, it said it had no choice but to try her after she met with Yettaw.
She was put under house arrest in 1989. The following year, her National League for Democracy party won more than 80 percent of the legislative seats in the first free elections in the country in nearly 30 years.
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But the military junta disqualified Suu Kyi from serving because of her house arrest, refused to step down and annulled the results.
Since then, the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize winner has been the face of Myanmar’s pro-democracy movement.
http://malaysia.news.yahoo.
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/
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WORLDNOTES, Venezuela, Iraq, Myanmar, Spain, Nigeria, Cuba
Author: W. T. Whitney Jr.
People’s Weekly World Newspaper, 05/28/09 15:15
Venezuela: Nationalizing key industries
In line with bringing strategic industries under state control, the Venezuelan government last week announced plans to nationalize a gas compression plant, the Guyana Steelmaking Complex, two iron producing facilities, a briquetted iron plant and a ceramic tile producer. The National Assembly passed enabling legislation in early May. Venezuelanalyis.com provided no information as to financial terms by which transnational corporations would relinquish ownership.
President Hugo Chavez not only outlined plans for a “socialist industrial complex,” but also indicated that worker assemblies would be choosing managers for state-owned companies.
The government has already nationalized oil production joint ventures and telecommunication companies along with a bank, a cement factory and the 5,000-worker SIDOR steel plant.
Iraq: Corruption leads to food shortages
The Ministry of Planning and Development Cooperation released a survey this month indicating that of 120,000 families qualifying for food assistance, almost 20 percent received no state-supplied food for 13 months and over 31 percent received none for 7 to 12 months. Trade Minister Abdul-Falah al-Sudani, accused of manipulating food imports, faces a no-confidence vote in Parliament where an oversight committee reported, “Billions of dollars have been wasted in this ministry.”
Iraq’s food rationing system, initiated in 1995 as part of the UN oil-for-food program, operated effectively until the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Since then, according to IRIN news service, the system has performed poorly “due to insecurity, poor management and corruption.”
Myanmar: Democracy leader faces more jail time
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) last year insisted that high-profile government opponent Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, be released. Her 13-year house arrest was to have ended on May 27.
She has been on trial again, however, since May 18. She now faces five years in prison in connection with an illegal visit earlier this month by U.S. citizen John William Yettaw. Aung San Suu Kyi’s expected conviction would block her run for president in 2010.
Security forces are out in force throughout Rangoon. At its 14th Summit earlier this year in Thailand, the Association of South East Asian nations (ASEAN) sought UN leadership in monitoring human rights abuses in Myanmar. Presently 2,100 political prisoners are in jail there, according to ipsnews.
Spain: General strike hits Basque region
Two weeks after taking office as the first non-Basque nationalist to govern the Basque region since 1979, Prime Minister Patxi Lopez faced a general strike with separatist overtones. Support for the May 21 action came from the nationalist ELA and LAB labor unions and from nationalist political parties in the Parliament.
Socialist Lopez criticized the work stoppage as “politically motivated” and backed by “radical separatists.” Labor spokespersons cited by the French news agency AFP explained that the action was announced prior to Lopez’ election and was aimed at the economic crisis and 17 percent unemployment. Estimates placed worker participation at 10-20 percent, with public sector workers being heavily involved. Demonstrations took place in several cities. Major Spanish unions did not participate.
Nigeria: Delta conflict grows
The government’s resort to a military offensive prompted the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) to declare “all-out war.” Naval gunboat assaults ensued. MEND forces responded last week by hijacking two oil vessels and attacking soldiers. Fighting took place close to a Chevron export terminal and a refinery processing 125,000 barrels of oil a day.
Nigerian oil output is down 20 percent since 2006 due to conflict. Groups belonging to MEND demand an increased share of oil revenues and greater autonomy for the impoverished Niger Delta. Criminal elements are incorporated into MEND, Al Jazeera reported. Government firepower, particularly from attack helicopters, has recently killed dozens of civilians and displaced thousands, according to Amnesty International.
Cuba: New economic difficulties
Economy and Planning Minister Marino Murillo explained last week that because of reduced export and tourist income caused by the global economic crisis, Cuba’s economy would expand by 2 percent this year, not 6 percent as predicted earlier.
Diminished foreign currency reserves and heavy costs for hurricane recovery compound matters. Additionally, electricity use during January through April ended up 3 percent above projections. Generating plants required 225,000 extra tons of imported fuel oil costing $90-100 million. State institutions accounted for 10 percent of the excess, while residential use fell 1.2 percent.
Juventud Rebelde newspaper indicated electricity conservation measures are on the way, also new authority for inspectors and measures against private diversion of electricity.
World Notes are compiled by W.T. Whitney Jr. (atwhit@roadrunner.com)
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