By Michael G Kulma

Michael G. Kulma is Director of Policy Programs at the Asia Society.

New York – Barack Obama’s election was historic on many levels. Between now and his inauguration on January 20, he will need to hone his policies.

Much of the early focus of the Obama administration will undoubtedly be on the economy and the war in Iraq. But it is critically important that the new administration pay serious attention to other foreign-policy issues right from the start. American relations with North Korea, and the ongoing six-party talks, certainly belong at the top of the list. Here, the United States must not only stay the course, but also build on the efforts of the last few years.

The risks of changing course cannot be overstated. Not long after President George W. Bush came into office, his administration took a hard-line stance against the North Korean regime, calling for a review of the Clinton administration’s policy, and eventually tagging North Korea as a member of the “axis of evil.” While North Korea had done much over the preceding years to warrant a more critical eye, in retrospect these policies set back prospects for peace and stability in the region.

After all, North Korea’s reaction to the Bush administration’s policies was to drop out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, restart its nuclear program, and further develop its weapons production. Indeed, it is believed that North Korea during this time increased its stockpile of nuclear weapons. Moreover, while there is plenty of blame to go around on all sides, America’s change of policy stalled for years the potential for progress in relations between the six parties.

It is only more recently, under the watch of US Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, that the Bush administration’s policy toward North Korea has become more pragmatic. After North Korea threatened to restart its nuclear facility at Yongbyon, the Bush administration in early October removed the North from its terrorism blacklist. In exchange, North Korea promised to allow access to its facilities for inspections, while also dropping its opposition to Japanese and South Korean participation in inspections.

At this point, the road forward is fraught with peril and uncertainty. As a presidential candidate, Obama spoke of the need for “sustained, direct, and aggressive diplomacy” to deal with North Korea. This formulation seems to suggest an understanding of the often-lengthy process of dealing with its regime, but it remains unclear how far Obama might be willing to go to secure America’s interests.

At the same time, Obama’s advocacy of direct diplomacy caused concern during the campaign, with some questioning whether this meant that he would meet a leader such as Kim Jong-il without preconditions. While it is difficult to predict how far he might move in this direction, it would be politically difficult for Obama to meet the North Korean leader in such a manner, something that he is likely to learn early in his presidency.

The on-again, off-again talks on North Korea can fluster even the most experienced of negotiators. That being the case, Obama needs to build a strong team of experienced Korea hands to push the agenda forward. While trying to build on the limited progress of recent years, they will have to confront a number of additional obstacles in building a cohesive and sustainable peace on the Korean Peninsula.

North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-il, is reportedly ill. What this means for continuing the negotiations remains to be seen. Relations between North and South Korea have taken a turn for the worse this year, following the election of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, who has taken a more hard-line approach toward the North. And then there is Japan, a member of the six-party talks and a steadfast US ally, which was angered by the recent delisting of North Korea, because the North has yet to satisfy fully Japanese inquiries into the abduction of its citizens by North Korean agents decades ago.

These are just a few of the issues that will complicate US relations with North Korea and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. But America must stay the course. As Obama’s new administration takes over, the choice is between making some progress, as has occurred in recent years, and facing a nuclear North Korea. The choice is now Obama’s. The future of peace and stability in Northeast Asia hangs in the balance.

……………………………
Copyright: Project Syndicate/Asia Society, 2008.
www.project-syndicate.org