Where do you go from here?
Jul 2nd, 2008
_ by Min Khin Kyaw
We all know Than Shwe won’t give up.
Once I thought, he’d allow the monks to mediate between him and democratic forces, and that he’d accept negotiation because the monks are non-violent and have essential influences over Burmese community. I was wrong; he killed the monks.
The National League for Democracy NLD has called for dialogue that should be accepted as an open dialogue with the UN to play middle man role. But they all failed as Than Shwe has had no idea to give up power.
The ASEAN tried to persuade him with a different approach. But they have helped him gained income of the amounts he could only dream of previously.
You name any type of negotiation. They will all be failures. With China laughing at it, the UN’s ineffectiveness, not just about Burma but about everything nowadays, has become as embarrassing as that of ASEAN. All the political thinkers have run out of ideas. Especially, the catastrophic cyclone has proved that junta never cares about people of Burma. Before that, the ethnics had to bear the brunt of all atrocities committed by junta. Now everybody suffers all the same.
You can’t persuade Than Shwe by peaceful means. But you can’t do it by forceful means either. He is stubborn and cares for nothing but himself. His skull is thick that no words can penetrate it.
He won’t give up power by fear of any threat at all. Only regime change by an international coalition force will make a change to his thinking. Yet he is the last one to die if war breaks out, so he will go through the worst scenario anyway. The first ones to die are ordinary people. Second are the ordinary soldiers that they too are suffering at front lines. And the ones surrounding him and protecting him will come as the third to die. The final one is he and his family.
That is the scenario one has to think first before starting a war of regime change against him.
But how will one start a war of regime change?
I’ve read some persuasive thinking by the political leaders to ask soldiers to come to the right side. But I didn’t find any suggestion how to do that. I agree there must be soldiers who do love the people and the country. I don’t have any doubt if they get a chance they’d change side but that chance must include a strong possibility of the fall of the junta, or otherwise they won’t change side.
I wrote before that there is no liberated area to flee, no food and supply, and no arms supply possible by pro-democracy movement to persuade these soldiers to change side. A few defections will not be enough. Our political leaders have nothing to offer these soldiers to start and regroup and prepare a good and fair fight against their corrupt Generals.
We need the backing of international forces that have real fire-power. Many people inside Burma are definitely ready to support such an action now. They’re desperate for a change now.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:04 pm
Dear Nai Khin Kyaw,
I applaud your writings. We need more writers like you to counter the nonsense written by pseudopretensionists like Marjolis et al who claim that Western Powers should not interfere or else Burma will disintegrate worse than the Balkans, worse than Vietnam, and worse than Iraq/Afghanistan combined.
Please continue writing about how factors exist that will ensure we will not become like those nations, how the existence of the Sangha, the Students, Suu (DASSK), and Spirit of the People are
going to stay more or less together in forming a new Nation. True, we will never be a perfect Union — but look at the SPDC. For all their brute strength, they have never been able to hold the Nation together. It is all a big pretense. But given the 4 S’s above, we CAN hold it together, and we have to continue lobbying the Powers that be to give us a break, a little break, in landing the International troops inside Burma, and to reassure them that we will be responsible in training our people to take over the job of maintaining the peace. Oh, and I forgot the 5th S — Superstition of Than shwe that when the White Men in Uniform land in Burma, he stupidly believes that his power will crumble. That is going to save the People a lot of trouble.
So let us lobby the West to land some forces inside Burma to grab a chay-goak, a foot-hold, in a firm, secure firebase that is well-protected for themselves so that they will be safe from attack from SPDC. We need to reassure them that they need not be patrolling the streets of Rangoon and expose themselves to attack like the way the Coalition Forces are suffering in Baghdad. Once this firebase is firmly established, the Superstition of Than Shwe will work, the People will rise up, and decent-minded patriots among the soldiery will defect.
Keep up your wonderful work !