_ by May K Ng

The generals in Burma have declared a three day mourning period for the cyclone victims in Burma. But unlike China, Burma has not buried all its dead and the proper mourning period has not begun yet.

Three weeks after failing to convince the military in Burma to allow an immediate and large scale rescue mission, the United Nations is grappling with the possibility that the devastation from cyclone Nargis could become larger than the 2004 Asian tsunami. Finally, to end the worsening situation, the UN secretary general Ban Ki Moon is in Burma to hold talks with General Than Shwe to speed up the relief efforts.

Ban also announces that Burma has reached a critical point (of life and death) after the major cyclone. He said that, so far, only one fourth of 2.4 millions cyclone survivors are receiving minimal emergency supply with hundreds of thousands of survivors suffering from hunger, diseases, and lack of shelter.

Reports of increasingly desperate condition inside Burma have prompted the US, Britain, and France, to press for a wide and immediate channel to deliver a massive cyclone relief. The UN World Food Program and the International Committee of the Red Cross are also calling the Irrawaddy delta “a disaster zone.” They believe that Burma is heading into the second phase of a major catastrophe, with possible epidemic outbreaks and countrywide food shortages.

Apparently under pressure, the military in Burma has decided to allow nine UN World Food Program helicopters to distribute aid, and four staff members of  Medicines Sans Frontiers (MSF or Doctors without Border) to go into the Irrawaddy delta, for the first time. Since bridges, roads and other infrastructures were damaged from the cyclone, it is an important step forward in helping the survivors. But most of the foreign disaster relief experts, especially from the US and the UN are still barred from entering Burma.

Scot Marciel, the US ambassador to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, confirms that the cyclone relief effort in Burma is dangerously short of doctors, public health specialists and helicopters and pilots to deliver aid.

Though there is much talk of ASEAN’s aid mechanism, believed to be the only viable option, to open up the access for a massive aid delivery by the international partners; much of the aid still has not entered the country. And there are few details on how this ASEAN’s Coalition of Mercy will carry out the mission.

Unfortunately, the ASEAN has been proven in the past to be wavering and easily seduced by the lucrative business deals offered by the generals of Burma–and there is little expectation of the ASEAN or China possessing a political will to save the Burmese people this time. As dead bodies continue to float in the delta and much of the farm lands remain under salt water, a tough posture by the west becomes more tenable in comparison to the slow moving surreal Asian convoy.

Mean while road blocks and barbed wires are being erected and aid workers are required to offer bribe to be allowed into the disaster zone.

One rescue worker wrote that “we are working on a plan to secretly unite the small groups, but as our work is forbidden we must work quietly. We’re trying to figure out a big enough voice so the larger organizations will help us procure supplies, but it has to be quiet, it has to be subtle.  The road blocks are many, as there are so many forms to fill out that are required by the large NGO’s, so much red tape, so many doors and so many rules, so many agendas, all threatening to slow down what’s already going way too slowly, so for now we all work quietly saving a few lives at a time and knowing that at least we’re able to do that much. And none of these people sleep, they rarely eat, we meet on Sundays and late at night because we’re too busy procuring supplies, finding funding, finding transport, finding fuel and getting permission or not to meet in the day.”

Private donors are frequently threatened by the hostile government who orders them to turn back or otherwise confiscates the relief supplies. In the latest news, private aid workers are asked to hand over the relief supplies to authorities. The local headmen are ordered to make a list of donations, for the ruling junta to decide after the May 24th referendum, on how, and to whom, the aid supplies will be distributed.

With the help of ASEAN and China, Burmese military has shown the world that it is in total command of Burma, regardless of the great human cost, even during the major disaster.

While making the ASEAN and China appear more competent by rejecting the US led humanitarian efforts, at the same time the military junta is thwarting the efforts of native Burmese relief workers. The end result has been a greater disaster for the 2.5 millions cyclone survivors. The military in Burma has become as much a threat to the well being of the disaster victims as the cyclone and the damaged infrastructures.

To appease the military in Burma the ASEAN and the UN will initiate a donor’s conference on Sunday to raise money for the junta in the name of the cyclone victims. During the mean time, relief supplies are being sold on the black markets according to some reports coming out of Burma.

The World Bank which requires the government to be open, transparent, and fiscally responsible, said that it is not able to help Burma, but offered to support the ASEAN led engagement with the Burmese military regime. 

As in the past the ASEAN and the UN may fail to understand the real intention of the generals in Burma. Misreading the generals’ ambition, the ASEAN and the UN may assume that the junta’s crocodile tears are better than nothing, but in reality the junta should save their tears for later.

If Burma continues down this path of self destruction, it is clear that the citizens who have nothing more to lose will become the cause of the ultimate demise of the generals, and their tears will be needed later, for themselves.

[May Ng is from the Southern Shan State of Burma and the NY Director of Justice for Human Rights in Burma .]