_ by Derek Tonkin
[Derek Tonkin is a former British ambessador in South East Asia, and now the Chairman of Network Myanmar ‘networkmyanmar.org’]
The draft Constitution in Burma has been roundly criticised in the Western world and condemned by many because the Constitution is seen to entrench military rule under a “disciplined” democratic cloak, though Myanmar’s neighbours seem relatively relaxed, providing the voting on the day is thought to be relatively free and fair. The military government, as at the time of the constitutional referendum in December 1973, has been working hard to convince voters that the Constitution is the best on offer and that to reject it would set the country back. Pro-democracy groups within Myanmar and overseas have been urging the people to vote “No” on the grounds that the new Constitution would be no guarantee of civil and political liberties and would make a transition to genuine democratic rule all the more difficult.
Only a small percentage of the Burmese population is likely to have any serious understanding of the issues involved. Few will have seen, and even fewer studied a copy of the draft Constitution. Some may choose to use the referendum as an opportunity to cast a vote of no-confidence in the military regime. For many Burmese the rising cost of living is having an increasing sharp impact on their daily lives. It was these concerns which resulted in the widespread protests in August and September last year, led by sections of the Buddhist clergy. Almost regardless of the content of the draft Constitution, many Burmese might be inclined to vote “No” as the only way of registering their dissatisfaction with worsening living conditions. In short, if the military government is pressing them to vote “Yes”, then some might well vote “No” as a matter of principle: it is their only chance of registering a vote of disapproval.
Much could still depend on the integrity and transparency with which the votes are recorded and counted on the day. There are perhaps fewer concerns about any attempt to tamper with the vote at individual polling stations where the votes will first be counted before a report is made to the local sub-commission from where the voting report is passed up the chain until it finally reaches the capital Nay Pyi Taw. It would seem however as if the local voting results, though recorded, will not be released at the local, district or provincial level. Any serious allegation of impropriety in rigging the total number of votes in Myanmar, despite transparency at the local level, could have serious implications. In Thailand, despite the criticisms made of the circumstances in which the Referendum was held, all results were declared at local polling station level and posted on notice boards within a very short time of the conclusion of the vote.
It is currently difficult to get visas to enter Myanmar before 20 May. It is unlikely that any international journalists will be allowed to enter, though there is just a hope that some visas might be issued in Bangkok at the last moment. All offers of technical assistance and requests to act as observers have been turned down.
In one district in Rangoon it is reported that factory workers have already voted three times, once as members of the Union Solidarity and Development Association, another as members of the Myanmar Maternal and Child Welfare Association and finally as members of the Myanmar Women’s Affairs Federation member. “It wasn’t like they had to vote in person - the government officials took their ID card numbers and addresses and then the votes will be cast by the officials on their behalf” said a local resident. Other stories include the installation of CCTV cameras inside polling stations to see how people vote and numerous reports of unauthorised advance voting for no apparent reason with ballot papers already ticked “Yes” by polling station staff. More credible though is a report of some 700 workers at the Ministry of Power in Rangoon obliged to vote openly in advance and even to resign from their jobs if they wanted to vote “No”. But corroboration of such reports is unlikely.
The conduct of the campaign in the final week and the transparency of voting arrangements on Referendum Day itself could now be very important indeed for the countries of the region who want to see signs of real progress towards political reconciliation in Myanmar. There is little prospect, though, of even grudging recognition from the West.
[This article is excerpt from the author’s Burmese Perspective newsletter 2nd May 2008 issue.]