_ by Tatmadawthar 

“An old dog will learn no tricks”, one English proverb goes. In the despotic world of politics, it seems a bit empty. In Burma, according to the one-sided controversial  Constitution drafted by junta’s hand-picked puppets, which was published recently prior to the constitutional referendum set on 10th May 2008, little seems to have changed in terms of the broad structures of political power in the country. In the draft Constitution, overall, the idiosyncrasy of governance may have changed, but not the core or the main subject matter. The main subject matter, which is the military and its debauched personnel, are obviously still there in the “Constitution”, in uniforms or in civilian clothes. The basic law of this Constitution would also validate the continued military dominance over the government. The old dogs certainly have learnt tricks. So, surely, it cannot give any guarantee for democracy.

The vast majority of the people are certainly doomed to be powerless more than ever if this controversial Constitution draft got its way to a “Yes” vote.  And, voting at the “Constitutional Referendum” will make a decision on the fate and destiny of the country and its people indefinitely, which is unlike voting at the routine 4 or 5 yearly multi-party or presidential elections, to choose a ruling party or the president. The junta’s controversial draft Constitution has clearly witnessed the proliferation of new sources of military authority. People should aware that, because of this reason alone the country will inexorably descend further more deeper into abyss if this Constitution is successfully adopted through referendum.

One may ask why Burma would descend into abyss futher more deeper if the junta got a “Yes” for the Constitution? Well, it’s a no brainer. Without capable leaders (one example: Daw Aung San Suu Kyi) the new Constitution would be meaningless. Further more, the past 48 years of despotic rule under incompetent, incapable leaders Ne Win, Saw Maung, and now Than Shwe has proven enough. However, even in the face of this hard fact, the Constitution has been drafted to tag along the military boot-steps left behind by those botched dictator monsters.

The most important thing to a citizen is a “good governance”. Every citizen will choose to stay and contribute to the country if they have the chance, and to make a difference in whatever small way they can for the country. If the junta had allowed an all inclusive process, the product could be a realistic compromise. But this is not the case with this military drawn draft Constitution. They have denied the citizens to participate openly, freely, and contribute to the country, by banning all (party) inclusive Constitution. A country needs a nucleus of its most capable citizens, those with both intellectual and social wisdom to engage leadership roles in the economy, the administration and the political leadership. Without that central nucleus to lead the country forward, the society cannot perform to its full potential. Under this controversial Constitution with the incompetent leaders, Burma will remain as the poorest country in the world and divided as always, and the citizens will continue to suffer.

Most analysts believe the military will get what it wants from the referendum - a “Yes” vote even in the midst of a campaign for a vote “NO” (as well as for a boycott of the polls has been initiated by some opposition within and outside the country), because most people in Burma still had no idea as to the contents of the Constitution even though it is now available at the bookstores for US$ 1 per copy - a price far beyond the means of most people in Burma. Besides, the people of Burma are remained terrified of the junta for its violent crackdowns and the wee-hour manhunts right inside their own houses, as well as fear of losing their jobs if they vote “NO”. If that is so, and if the junta gets a “Yes” vote, it will effectively shut out the leader of the country’s biggest political party - Daw Aung San Suu Kyi of National League for Democracy - to contribute to the country’s urgently needed national reconciliation process. In consequence, the outcome of a referendum will not be credible at all and, therefore the pledged multi-party general elections in 2010 will be a sham. Hence, there will be no peace in sight in Burma for the years to come.

Violence has always accompanied democratization in the despotic world of politics. In the face of such uncertainties, it is small wonder that desperate minorities and the majority of people on the streets have turned to rallies and protests, peaceful or violent. Such is the nature of rivalry over claims to power when it is not subordinated to the rules of genuine constitutional democracy. The junta may have won many battles but not the war. They lost the war to manipulate, despite its relentless efforts to annihilate the opposition parties, institutions, icons and symbols. From now, in the years ahead, new forms of rivalries will develop. The new predicaments, new style of corruptions and cronyism, nepotism within the new powers in the States, Divisions and the Special Regions of Burma will emerge. This build up would result in the creation of new constellations of power and, therefore, political catastrophe in Burma is without doubt predictable in the near future - if the junta gets its “yes” vote.

The junta certainly has never wanted a genuine dialogue for national reconciliation. They have made any critism to their Constitution a criminal offence. They have never interested in establishing free and open democratic society. All these are in fact, because of “Fear”. The fear of “justice”. The fear of “cleasing out the military” by the people. If the societies modernize, becoming more urban, literate and politically mobilized, the forces that will rise to “cleanse out the despotic military” are apt to drive events in Burma. This explicit reality creates “extreme fear” in the junta’s military senior officers, and the junta becomes recalcitrant as if a dog has been cornered. Eventually, the “hatred” towards opposition grows in the top brass of military out of its own stupidity, jealously and extreme fear. The extreme fear of ”military being cleansed out” by the people forced them to run away to the so called new capital “Nay Pyi Daw”. They were so much in fear of the opposition that they recently warned foreign embassies in Rangoon not to support NLD, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s pro-democracy party and her supporters. They also outlawed speeches and leaflets about the referendum due to fear of being disciplined in the hands of the opposition and began cracking down, arresting NLD members who have been on a vote “NO” campaign.

However, Burma’s position as a resource-rich nation between China and India, and Asean’s Thailand on a third border makes it of intense strategic interest for the three  resource-hungry neighbours. They have given strategic vital support to the junta in exchange for the business deals and projects based on their own national needs and interests, citing the precarious situations of the Burmese people as “their internal matter”. Because of this vital support, the junta has been a bit relieved of the “fear” and is free of any effective international pressure and can continue to snout at the world. More revenues will be added to the junta’s coffers from the deals. More ground to ground and ground to air multiple tactical missiles and launchers will be seen in Burma. So, the three (historic self-interest pro-junta) neighbours are indirectly making the junta to validate and establish firmly its military rule. If the junta could manage a “Yes” vote for the Constitution, the said three (historic pro-junta) neighbours should also take the blame for blatantly support the junta and put desperate people of Burma squarely onto the growing precarious conditions that will come with the “yes” vote. Since the Constitutional referendum will not be credible because of the controversies, all the predicaments, harsh conditions, corruptions, cronyism, nepotism, atrocities, etc. at present day will persist and prevail in the new government that may be formed in 2010.

Unfortunately, there will be a lot of significant consequenses on Burma’s traditional customs, race, religion, and ethnic integrity beyond the projects of China’s gas and oil pipes, highways and access to Bay of Bengal; Thailand’s gas and hydro-power works, and India’s plan to deepen the port of Sittwe(Capital city of Rakhine state) and the Kaladan River(which flows through India’s Mizoram state into Burma) to make a transport and trade link with India’s isolated, under-developed and restive northeastern states. Given the naivety of the locals under junta’s constant despotic suppressions, and the combined effects of China, India and Thailand business dominance in their home lands, local culture will soon be taken over. Conflicts will arise. The new immigrants will soon produce competing communal claims to political and religious power. The locals will become strangers in their own cities. All ethnic nationals of Burma would certainly confront ethnic integration and ethnically cleansed in their own land one day, especially in the Rakhine and Shan States.

Thus, everyone in Burma should perhaps express their concern now, and vote “NO” to the Constitution on 10 May 2008, and together deny the junta to entrench its dominance over the country and its people’s fate and destiny.

LET US TOGETHER DISCIPLINE THE JUNTA AND MAKE IT OUR DAY ON THE 10TH OF MAY 2008.