UN envoy Gambari exacted a considerable concession from the junta in negotiating a mechanism for discussions to take place between DASSK and the junta. Prior to his intercession, bi-lateral talks were deemed unnecessary by the junta (they have all the representatives of the people at the National Convention where they can keep an eye on them and tell them what they can or cannot say) or loaded with unacceptable pre-conditions.  The thought of holding a dialogue with a representative of the people when they can’t dictate the agenda, the content and the outcome is anathema to the regime.

Having agreed to hold talks via an intermediary Aung Kyi, the junta then refused to accept Gambari’s offer of acting as an independent facilitator to the dialogue.  Throughout this process the junta have been keen to let go of as little control as possible – just enough to grab the headlines on the world stage, placate their masters in Beijing and their neighbours at ASEAN.

Following Gambari’s announcement of DASSK’s statement, the junta immediately picked on the details of the statement and twisted its meaning to their own purpose, specifically coercing various ceasefire ethnic groups to criticise DASSK’s statement with carefully chosen words provided by the junta.  And for those who refused to follow the party line, like the KIO, the junta starts the hard line treatment; threats, arrests and attacks.  It is not easy to reason why the junta wants to do this; stirring up disunity and racial antagonism among opposition groups is all in their favour, bolstering China’s stupid ‘Iraq’ comparison and justifying the military activities in the ethnic states.

With the world news headlines moving on to the next crisis, Burma is fading from the ‘top’ slot on news bulletins, consigned to the minority viewing slots on in-depth analysis programmes and undercover film reports (all of which are essential to keep the information flowing and maintaining the watchfulness on the junta’s antics), the junta can start to relax and get back to business as usual; whether that is making money out of gems and gas, killing and raping in the ethnic states, or torturing and detaining the opposition.

ASEAN mostly chose to mouth condemnations, then get down to charter signing, and continue the investment and trade deals; only The Philippines’ Arroyo continues to call on the junta to release DASSK and for real change.

Than Shwe has had to make concessions in starting the dialogue via Aung Kyi; but whether anything comes out of it is doubtful unless the international community continues to keep Burma in the spotlight and continue to exert pressure for change; but not for ‘reconsolidation’, but for ‘reconciliation’.  So far, the junta has twisted events to their own advantage, making small concessions, but without any intention of changing from the road map that they have defined; the one that will keep them in power indefinitely!