By WILLIAM FOREMAN,

AP

Posted: 2007-11-21 02:37:46

SINGAPORE (AP) - There were hopes that China could use its growing clout this week at a summit of Southeast Asian leaders to get Myanmar to end an often brutal crackdown on dissent and allow reforms in the isolated, impoverished nation.

But the expectations for progress with Myanmar quickly fizzled at the gathering in Singapore, highlighting the limits of Beijing’s power - and possibly desire - to push hard for change in the isolated country, also known as Burma.

The sticky issue of Myanmar is often a hot topic at meetings of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The 10-nation group allowed Myanmar to join a decade ago, hoping that membership would inspire change in the country, ruled by juntas since 1962. But little has improved, and Myanmar continues to be an embarrassment for ASEAN.

Myanmar grabbed the world’s attention again two months ago when troops and police shot at pro-democracy protesters, killing at least 15 people. The peaceful marches were led by Buddhist monks, who were demonstrating against fuel hikes and inflation that were grinding down the impoverished masses.

Although the bloodshed drew global anger, Myanmar only got a light slap from neighboring China - its staunchest diplomatic ally, biggest trading partner and major supplier of weapons.

Just days before Wednesday’s ASEAN summit, Beijing seemed to be taking a tougher approach on Myanmar. China’s state media on Saturday quoted a vice minister of foreign affairs as saying Myanmar should speed up reforms. When Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao arrived in Singapore, he issued a statement urging the country to move “toward national reconciliation.”

Denny Roy, a China expert and senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, said Beijing publicly condemned Myanmar to stifle most of the criticism that China is part of the problem. But he said, “I think the Chinese are careful to avoid pushing so hard that they alienate the target regime.”

China went silent on the Myanmar issue after ASEAN - under pressure from the junta - abruptly withdrew an invitation to U.N. envoy Ibrahim Gambari to address the group and discuss his ongoing talks with Myanmar.

The diplomatic debacle highlighted how ASEAN often struggles to agree on how to deal with Myanmar. The Philippines and Malaysia have supported a hard line against the country, while the junta is traditionally backed by Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam - which have their own human rights problems.

If ASEAN could forge a strong, united stand against the junta, it could place more pressure on Beijing to walk in step with important regional partners, who support China on many political and diplomatic issues. So in some ways, China has been blamed for what have been essentially ASEAN’s failings on Myanmar. Although China isn’t an ASEAN member, it was invited to the gathering, along with Japan, South Korea and India.

China also has a tough job influencing Myanmar because the junta often shows it cares more about clinging to power than pleasing global opinion and easing the hardships of its people.

“We shouldn’t underestimate the nationalism and prickliness of Burma’s dictators. This is a ruling elite that tends toward extreme xenophobia,” said Dan Lynch, a professor at the School of International Relations at the University of Southern California. “China could, I suppose, threaten to cut off military support,” Lynch added. “But it’s unclear the junta would respond as expected to such pressure, particularly if it meant handing power over to the opposition.”

Beijing also knows that regime change in Myanmar could bring instability on its southern border. A new leadership that would seek close relations with the United States also could create new security worries for the Chinese, Lynch said.

Criticizing Myanmar is difficult for China because the country’s foreign policy has long eschewed meddling in other nations’ domestic affairs, said June Teufel Dreyer, a political science professor at the University of Miami. Joining Myanmar’s opponents is especially difficult for China because the junta’s critics want it to allow free and fair elections - political reforms that Beijing’s Communist leaders have also resisted.

“If China pressures Burma to do something,” Dreyer said, “would that not give other countries the right to tell Beijing what to do?”

Associated Press reporter Charles Hutzler in Beijing contributed to this report.