Road maps to democracy

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A negotiated settlement, which leads to the military regime slowly but surely handing over power to a democratic government, is desirable.

But it is extremely unlikely.
Than Shwe is a desperado who will stop at nothing to remain in power.
He is wrecking the country, and he would likely choose to kill millions, rather than to give up power.

A “palace revolution” or death by natural causes that replaces one dictator by another might open the door to genuine negotiations.
And it might not.
The top dogs have much to lose and are tied together by fear.

A third possibility is that many officers and men take the side of the people.

To succeed, they must go beyond disobeying orders.
They must aim to seize power.

They do not appear to be ready to do this at present.
It is necessary to help them change their thinking, so they understand their duty.
Their duty is to support the people and not the regime.

Their numbers may be greater than we think they are,
and greater than they think they are.
Without communication between themselves (very dangerous) and without effective leadership, they will likely not try, or may try and fail.

But if they succeed, democracy, and with it human rights, could come quickly, rather than over decades.

There are dangers, of course, and it is necessary to judge whether the risks are worth taking.

There are those, the regime included, who say the country will fall apart without the military in power.

This ignores the fact that most pro-democracy groups, both Burman and non-Burman, now favour a federal republic.

But if some States chose independence, would this necessarily be a disaster ?
Are the Czech and Slovak Republics such unhappy places since they separated ?
And what about that little island, Singapore, which unilaterally declared its independence from Malaysia ?

An argument used by those wanting a slow transfer of power is :

“There are few qualified or experienced people in Burma who are not army officers.
We therefore need army officers to help run the country.”

This ignores the difference between parliament (the legislative branch of government) and the civil service (the executive branch).

Military men with clean records, or who risk their lives to overthrow the regime, should be allowed to enter the civil service when they have resigned from the armed services.

But, are the army officers who are at present running the administration of the country doing such a good job that it is vital to keep them ?