Defiance under pressure from apparently over-whelming odds can be a virtue – we honour the heroic stand of the 300 Spartans against over 1million armed forces of the Persian empire at Thermopylae, at the ‘bulldog’ determination of Winston Churchill in the face of a Europe overrun by Nazi Germany, and dogged defiance of poorly armed ‘rebels’ in numerous anti-colonial revolutionary wars in the 20^th century against ‘super-power’ states. We honour them because we understand that they were fighting for the ‘right’ values, for justice and independence, standing up to tyranny, subjugation and injustice.

However, when we find that same attribute taken on by bullies and thugs, we detest their ‘wrong’ actions; whether it is North Korea’s Kim Jong-Il, Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabi or Burma’s Than Shwe. All these dictators have several aspects in common; their actions are abhorrent to the sane world, they persecute the people of their country and they attempt to remain in power by fear and force (one might also mention their cosy relationship with China). These tyrants should perhaps remember what Napoleon Bonaparte said almost 200 years ago; “There are only two powers in this world … the sword and the spirit. In the long run, the sword is always defeated by the spirit”. I expect Napoleon came to this truism after he had been defeated by the peoples of Europe, many of whom his armies conquered as ‘liberator’, but then saw through his actions as he sought to become their dictator.

THE SWORD

Over the past few weeks, we have seen the UN envoy visit Burma, speak at the UNSC and now travel around the Region to bring together the regional powers in persuading the junta to reform. Some of us think that progress is too slow, although we are pleased that he has been able to intercede at all. Some think that as the junta have shown little inclination to budge, that armed UN intervention is now desirable. However, as far as I can see, the last time that the UN intervened in an armed war was in support of South Korea (against the invasion by the North) in 1950 – when the UNSC vote was secured on the day the invasion began as China were not in the UN (Taiwan was), and Russia was boycotting the UN because of this.

Intervention as ‘peace-keepers’ has taken place in many war zones and countries facing desperate calamity, where the UN troops have very strict rules about when they can, or most usually can’t, open fire. For instance, it has taken 4 years to get UNSC support for a peace-keeping force to get to deal with the genocide in Darfur and that included gaining agreement from the Sudan government (and they are still awaiting deployment). How long would it be before the UNSC could agree to intervene militarily, or the current SPDC government of Burma to agree? It seems unlikely at a time when the UN is seeking resolution by dialogue and diplomacy that the regime will be removed by ‘the sword’.

THE SPIRIT

In his recent interview with the Chinland Guardian, Harn Yawnghwe stated that quick removal of the regime is not necessarily what is best for Burma; removing Than Shwe and the SPDC would leave 13 divisional commanders (i.e. 13 dictators) to negotiate with to gain control of the government. Removing all Tatmadaw officials from government would cause government to collapse. The Tatmadaw has such insidious tentacles into every niche of government that disentangling and leaving it functioning will take co-operation and some time. Burma has the people in the pro-democracy movement with the will to change the country into a free, open society.

The current diplomacy option is seeking to bring the junta to the negotiation table and begin the process of transition. A new structure cannot be imposed on Burma overnight, despite the desire to do so. Burma’s people have dreams of a better future; they have the will to change and the ‘spirit’ to overcome all of the obstacles that the regime are currently placing in their path. But in the long run, the ‘spirit’ will succeed.

Further Information

“Reconciliation through Dialogue” is the Name of The Game in Burma Politics