Conditions for a successful revolution

Popular demonstrations cannot topple the regime unless they trigger a revolt within the Tatmadaw.

It is too early to say the current demonstrations will not do this.
But, if they do not, we must be better prepared for the next opportunity,
which might be a long time coming.

Five points:

1.   It is necessary to get propaganda through to junior army officers,
with a view to eventually subverting a significant part of the Tatmadaw.
This is not easy.
But it must be done.
It requires specialised knowledge of the techniques, and of the target.

2.   It is necessary to prepare junior Tatmadaw officers psychologically over a period of years.
Then, when the moment arrives, appeal to them DIRECTLY.

3.   It is necessary to study how to seize power, and to make plans for the seizure of power when the time is right.
That time is now here. But what studies and plans have been made ?
What preparation has been made ?

It is most unlikely that an insurrection can be precisely planned as to matters of detail and timing.
Too much depends upon factors external to the conspiracy.
Therefore :
4.   Key conspirators, including Tatmadaw officers, must know what to do when the time comes. And they must know how to judge the right moment to act, e.g. to make use of spontaneous public expression of popular discontent.
If necessary, they must act without waiting for instructions.
So, they train themselves and collaborators to understand the situation and to use their own initiative when necessary.
These people will of course avoid all contact with above-ground opposition groups, including anyone involved in demonstrations.

When the regime is made vulnerable by something it has not foreseen :  something else, something unpredictable, must be made to happen.
This increases the generals’ confusion and paralyses their ability to think clearly and to act coherently.
So :
5.   Blow should follow blow, allowing the generals no time for reflection, no time to re-organise.

When the regime is destabilised, it loses its balance, and, if all goes well, it falls.

The generals are not going to hand over power.
It must be taken from them.

Power must be taken from them by some of the soldiers.
This could mean civil war :  one Tatmadaw faction against another.

Does anyone see another way ?