With over 420,000 troops, Burma has the 12th largest army in the world – why? It is not as if Burma is at war or providing troops for the peace-keeping initiatives that the UN have ongoing. Burma is rated 24th in population, but the size of the Tatmadaw exceeds that of Indonesia (est. 360,000) – a country that has a population over 230 million, the 4th largest in the world, and a country that has numerous ethnic conflicts and security (terrorism, piracy, etc.) issues to deal with. To justify the size, the SPDC make bland platitudinous statements about internal security, safeguarding the nation, blah, blah, blah, sounding more like political slogans than strategic analysis. One might even think that the SPDC are so stupid that they don’t know how and what to do with the national budget as a government, so they do the only thing they have been trained to do – develop the armed forces. However, there are cunning and devious minds at work within the SPDC, so I think we have to look a little deeper.

A sizeable armed forces are necessary to conduct the internal security operations (although these are mainly due to the aggressive nature of the SPDC operations in terrorizing their own people), to guard the border (against attempts at escape by those utterly distressed at life in Burma, smuggling of goods otherwise unobtainable inside Burma, and smuggling of commercial and consumer goods without paying bribes to the Nasaka, and smuggling of illicit drugs – in which the SPDC protect the trade!). The size of the armed forces to undertake these tasks do not justify the size – the same could be effected with a smaller efficient force (Malaysia has 110,000 armed troops).

Burma it not threatened by its neighbours, despite occasional border clashes with Thailand (306,000 troops). It is working hard to develop friendly links with the adjacent countries to foster trade, overcoming the setbacks of sanctions imposed by the USA and EU. Southeast Asian countries have traditionally held large armed forces against the threat of external aggression from China (or the KMT overspill), and to deal with the powerful drugs warlords. ‘Terrorism’ as well as long-standing insurgencies now encroaches on many SEAsian countries and they develop large armies to deal mainly with such internal security issues.

Recent news regarding the Tatmadaw have focused on its heavy armour, helicopter gunships, fighter aircraft and other equipment that are more suited to set-piece battles between combatant armies – and not with guerrilla warfare/internal security operations (although the ALH helicopters could be used in these operations, a few well aimed RPGs will deter widespread use).

With the SPDC decamping to Naypyidaw, any pro-democracy demonstrations in Rangoon or Mandalay can be contained – either by brutal death squads as in 1988, or by evacuating the cities of government personnel and maintaining a cordon surrounding the action until it has been neutralized – government will continue as if nothing is happening. A recent analysis has suggested that the SPDC have been increasing the size of the Tatmadaw (along with training for USDA thugs and village ‘militia’) in order to confront and contain the many uprisings and insurgencies that they expect to occur after the National Convention has completed and the people of Burma discover that life is not better after NC, but far worse!

We may infer that the Tatmadaw is there not just for internal security, border control and as a deterrent against external aggression – but an effective means of maintaining order within (most of) Burma, to ensure that the SPDC and the generals stay in power. A large Tatmadaw is just one of their strategies – in order to remain in power and achieve some measure of development they need to; (i) control internal pro-democracy forces ranged against them, (ii) reduce or eliminate the impact of the ethnic insurgencies, and (iii) keep the UN at bay. The Tatmadaw along with oppressive laws restricting freedoms assist the first two; immoral trading partners willing to keep the junta in power – India, Russia and China – help with the third. Using Burma’s natural resources to buy new guns ‘kills two birds with one stone’ – a stronger Tatmadaw and more compliant friendly nations.

Resources

Myanmar-China Cooperation: Its Implications for India

Myanmar: Going Nuclear?

Burma’s China Connection and the Indian Ocean Region

Myanmar: Military Regime’s Strategy To Stay In Power

Burmese Authorities Give Military Trainings To USDA Members

Is the SPDC preparing for the Result of the National Convention?

Myanmar Armed Forces

Myanmar/Burma Military Guide

South Asia Analysis Group

Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies