At about 3:30pm in the afternoon of 22nd February 2007 in central Rangoon near Sule Pagoda, a group of people staged a small protest about rising inflations, severe shortage of electricity supply and declining healthcare and education standards in Burma.

In Burma under a hard-line military junta, which has a zero tolerance on political dissent, this protest is the first to go ahead successfully in so many years since the 2003 Depayin massacre where hundreds of peaceful supporters of pro-democracy political opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi were bludgeoned to death by junta’s militia-men.

This latest protest is significant for a lot of reasons. First of all, it was more of a social protest rather than a real political one. The protesters limited their demands solely on their social discontents like lack of electricity and rising inflations, but they did not say a word about junta’s illegitimacy or junta’s political oppression or junta’s religious persecutions or junta’s ethnic cleansing. In fact they even shouted again and again “Long Live Senior General Than Shwe”, meaning it literally or as a sarcasm.

And, unlike any other protests, this one was somehow allowed to go on for nearly half an hour without any interruptions from the authorities. Police went after the protesters only on the next day_ altogether six protesters were detained.

Junta mouth piece New Light of Myanmar newspaper even reported about the protest; of course with a warning that junta will take actions on all protesters. Usually junta-controlled media in Burma is not allowed to report about any dissent against the authorities.

This latest development gives credits to the recently circulating rumours that junta will allow some political activities in Burma to a certain extent as part of preparation for the coming referendum and subsequent elections after their partial national convention has finished up their pro-military constitution based on the so called principles of guided and disciplined democracy.

Junta has learned two important lessons from their previous mistakes. They know that if they make a totally free and fair election, their pro-military parities will be beaten by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy. But on the other hand, if they allow no politics at all like they did in their national convention; international community will not recognize their referendum and subsequent elections.

So apparently they are preparing a multi-layered criterion for political activities in Burma for the coming referendum and elections.

Accordingly, they have made it all clear that they will not allow Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy to have any role in their future plans for Burma. They are forcing NLD members to resign from the party. They confirm that NLD leaders Daw Suu and U Tin Oo will not be released from detention. They have warned NLD’s current care-taker leaders that NLD must not make any demand or protest or whatever!

But to other non-Daw Suu or non_NLD activists, junta is treating comparatively leniently. They released student leaders and even allowed them some rooms to manoeuvre, to a certain extent. Recently an activist form a rather social network in Burma with the help of intellectuals, doctors and lawyers etc, to help people with the social problems in their daily lives; and junta allowed it to happen. Some of the junta Ministers are even asking people to inform on corruptions of junior and middle ranking officers. And now, police didn’t use force to break up this latest protest.

And when a group of junta lackeys staged demonstrations in front of US and UK embassies in Rangoon to denounce those countries’ support for UN action on Burma, junta gave full-blown support to demonstrators. Traffic police kept traffic lights red to allow demonstrators to use the roads safely. Junta mouth piece newspapers and TV praised those demonstrators as great patriots.

So, it seems, we are seeing the beginning of an era of controlled ambience for limited political activities in Burma where pro-junta lackeys can thrive, neutral socio-political groups and activities are a little bit tolerated, but zero tolerance on pro-Daw Suu and pro-NLD activists.

Whether we are to be happy about it or not, only time will tell us.