”Why is the UNSC wasting its time and energy on Burma, when it has proven beyond doubt that the Burmese Generals are not in the category of civilized norms and understands only the language brute force,” seems to be the common hypothesis of the international community and by the Burma watchers. The UN has passed 28 resolutions at the General Assembly expressing grave concern over human rights violations, ethnic cleansing, political repression and the lack of civil liberties. On the positive aspect it has urge the Burmese Junta to hold a tripartite dialogue (with the Junta, the National League for Democracy or NLD and ethnic minorities). But all these were vigorously refuted and completely ignored by the top brass. So Ibrahim Gambari going to Burma seems to be a symbolic ritual giving the defenders and detractors of the regime a chance to air out their bombastic esoteric cogitation, or at least a common denominator after the haggling and agonizing. It seems that UN has becomes impotent, in the initiative of brokering dialogue between the Junta and the opposition through two designated special envoys for over the last decade. Even though allowing, Ibrahim Gambari to visit the country, could be construe as a positive developments, we must recollect the 28 UN Assembly resolution urging to release all political prisoners serving lengthy sentences including the Burmese Nobel Laureate was never met. The 29^th resolution now deliberating will be no exception.

The UN Security Council has placed Burma, on the Council’s agenda’, citing concern over the ‘deteriorating situation in Myanmar’ that is endangering the maintenance of international peace and security’, and result in the outflow of refugees, drugs, HIV/AIDS and other diseases’ which in turn ‘threatens to have a destabilizing impact on the region, even though the new nuclear cooperation with North Korea  (as the latest North Korean shipment to Burma under the smokescreen of vessels in distress) is not in the agenda. The UNSC meeting of 15^th Sept. took only 15 minutes, despite China’s vigorous defense on Burma. At the closed-door meeting on the 29^th Under Secretary-General Gambari, reported to have said that there had been some slight progress in some areas such as of forced labor in areas where the visibility is too much. However, he also stated that his ‘engagement’ with the Junta ’should not be for the sake of engagement’, but that should be tangible results in terms of concrete progress in addressing the Burmese. Now that he had come back from Burma, the world is watching these improvements.

Predictably, the Junta like any strong man and unreasonable groups reacted strongly with lies including the refutation at the UN General Assembly, approaching the Non-Align Movement, clarification and denunciation followed by a media blitz against the US and labeling the NLD as internal and the expatriates as external traitors, with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi as destructive elements and ‘power mad politicians and blah blah blaming everybody except themselves. What more, it forced the ceasefire groups to formally condemn the move of Burma putting at the UNSC. In the opening plenary session of the National Convention (NC) on 10 October devoted an entire special session in the afternoon to criticizing the UNSC action, thereby roundly condemning the US and its followers.

            To be candid we have construe that Gambari’s second visit carries more weight as he would report back directly to the UNSC, as he had done in the first trip, even though, like any diplomat, will say nice things that he come as a representative of Kofi Annam.  Unfortunately, many believes that until the immediate and urgent need of the people are met, he won’t be able to break the ice. On the other side the crafty Junta has successfully used Gambari’s visit to endorse its national convention and had smartly portrayed as a sort of legitimacy bestowed by the UN, which they hope to find a way out of the UNSC passing a resolution on Burma.

Probably, the Junta will listen to the advice of the Chinese, as from the very outset they hatch a plan with the Chinese expert to invite Gambari and offer small concessions, so that the Chinese could defend Burma at the UNSC briefing or use their veto if the West ever introduces a tough resolution. The Burmese issue has place the Chinese in an awkward position, between the devil and the deep sea. They will either use the veto, which could be detrimental in their bid for leadership of the international community, as cropping up the pugnacious rouge regime or loosing its soft under belly (Burma) to the democratic forces led by the West, particularly the US.

The opposition movement both at home and abroad joined the chorus of approval for the UNSC move and their expressions can be found in several social and religious occasions and is gaining momentum. The leaders of the 8888, generation inside Burma could easily unleash a formidable force which is more popular than the moribund NLD and obviously heightens the suspicions of the security agencies. The Junta has suffered a big loss of face and is probably concerned about the conjunction of adverse events within and outside the country. The undeniable fact, which everybody accepts, is that the Burmese as a people are unable to solve their own problem so much so that the UN has to come in.

It has also drives home the fact that the military Junta’s rule is one of the vilest on this planet, suppressing minority groups, crushing dissent, wrecking the economy, engaging in Stalinesque social engineering projects. The immense affection for the gentle and open hearted people of Burma, considered as the most hospital people of the world, are being traumatized by the disgusting and sordid rulers. About two million people have fled Burma in the last ten years alone is also an undeniable fact, but was still not accepted by the Burmese Generals.

What we were made to understand is that in Gambari’s planned talks include the situation in Karen State among other issues of political reform, the release of political prisoners and humanitarian assistance. Nothing is heard about these. In the meantime in Karen State it happens on a daily basis. According to the Karen National Union, Burmese troops from battalion 35 of Light Infantry Division 66 had destroyed property of more than 2.2 million Kyat (nearly US $1,667) and on Nov. 1^st just one week before Gambari’s visit, the Burmese army has inhumanely burned alive to a 47-year-old Saw They Shur in Play Hta village in Taungoo District. This indicates that the Junta has replied to the UN not by words but by actions and yet we could not comprehend of why did the UN representative go?  It is estimated that more than 3,000 additional refugees are expected to arrive at the camp before the end of this month due to food shortages and the threat of violence in the home villages, which are all the making of the Junta.

            Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, now 61, had requested more frequent visits from her personal doctor, the only person besides her maid has been allowed contact since her detention.  Her doctor’s visits have been curtailed by authorities, in an effort to put an end to passive resistance, all these inhuman gestures which the Generals inherited from their Burmese monarchs were repeated again to show off their uncivilized and brutal nature, are an indirect reply to the UN for putting Burma on the agenda of the UN Security Council. Of course one understand when the United Nations envoy, Ibrahim Gambari, says he’s very satisfied with his four-day visit to Burma, where held a frank and extensive dialogue with the military leader, Senior General Than Shwe. But again looking from the other perspective we tend to agree of what Debbie Stothard said that Gambari was more of the temporary detainee than temporary visitor of the Junta because he was not allowed to see the 8888 generations student’s leaders nor the real ethnic leaders that are detained and has to be contend to meet person whom the Junta chooses. He even could not stay in a hotel but was compelled to move to the government house.

Both the Secretary General and the Security Council would like to see tangible results to justify the viability of the ‘good offices’ of the UN leading to r dialogue and diplomacy. This put the Junta on the spotlight, as they are sore afraid of dialogue being on the wrong side of justice, democracy , human rights. If the still insist that they are still right, then it is high time for a big stick to make them see reason.

No doubt Mr Gambari was granted a rare meeting with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi who expressed support for deeper UN engagement in Burma, which clearly indicates that she want peaceful solution and not confrontation as the Junta is doing  and in the diplomatic language is “frank and extensive” talks with the supremo Than Shwe, the country’s uncrowned absolute monarch.

We also understand that Gambari urged the regime to  release a significant number of political prisoners including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, and prominent former student leaders. He also urged that humanitarian workers be granted “the safety and freedom to deliver services to those in need” especially the Internally displaced persons, where civilians have been caught in the crossfire between the military and ethnic separatist rebels – a reflection of UN concern about increasing restrictions on foreign aid workers. In addition, Mr Gambari called for Burma to agree with the International Labour Organisation on a mechanism to investigate complaints of forced labour, before this week’s meeting of the ILO governing body. ILO could take Burma to court if no solution is found. Although the two sides have been trying to hammer out a deal, the regime has balked at the ILO’s request to bring in more expatriate staff and to hold confidential talks with Burmese citizens.

Obviously, the Burmese military leaders are trying to reposition themselves once again. With Gambari’s visit, they were given another chance to make a difference before the world body makes further deliberations that may include punitive actions. Judging by the reception that Gambari received, the Burmese generals apparently want to show the world that they are softening their position and are moving towards the path of democracy. They indicated they were willing to work with the opposition groups, especially the National League for Democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi. But the international community cannot be fooled all the time. The generals’ words are all lies as their motto is “lying the very concept of truth.“ The recent video footage that showed the extravagant wedding celebration one of the five daughters of  Than Shwe, was a stark reminder that things are very, very wrong in Burma. While the majority of the population suffers from the effects of decades of economic stagnation, with little or no opportunity to improve and living in hunger and fear, the head of the junta, his family, and all their cronies were celebrating in opulent style, with unimaginably expensive gifts and Hollywood-inspired props.

But the most paradoxical aspect is that the regime did not acknowledge the general humanitarian situation although they admitted the political stalemate with National League for Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. This vividly reveals the utter rottenness of the Junta’s administrative system. Because it has only appointed what the Sino-Burmese word say as “Phaw Lan Phar” (comes from the story of a Chinese emperor whose has contracted hernia which was so huge that it takes one man to support it, and that man became the most favored person in the court) as he had appointed only the cronies that dared not revealed the truth, lest they loose their head may be chopped off. Hence the Generals could not comprehend that the country was facing a humanitarian crisis because of their doing. This similar episode can be recollected during the twilight days of Ne Win administration, when he realized the true situation of the country, he publicly denounced every one from the highest person to the peon in his bureaucracy as liars except himself. This scenario is likely to repeat as these General Than Shwe and his cohorts belong to the category of people ‘who knows not that he knows not’.  Instead they interpreted as neo- colonialist powers giving various excuses in trying to interfere in the internal affairs of small nations with pressure, coercion and sanctions and even using the UN and international bodies to dominate those countries.

We also realized that whether the people of Burma people have democracy or not concern very little to country’s neighbors. For years, though, they have been dealing with an outpouring of refugees, escaping the regime’s abuses of human rights and basic freedoms most of them are indifferent. UN agencies have long been struggling to contain the spread of HIV/Aids and malaria, while human rights groups have extensively documented military abuses against ethnic minorities, women and children and pro-democracy activists yet their constructive engagement continue to prevail. But we hope and pray that ASEAN must continue to maintain a tough position toward its rogue member. In commemorating the 40th anniversary of the founding of ASEAN it will have to take care that it does not want Burma’s intransigence and pariah reputation to ruin the celebration.

The United States has told the U.N. Security Council it plans to introduce a resolution on Myanmar later this year as part of its campaign to end the military dictatorship’s repressive policies and promote democracy and human rights and that they are waiting for Mr Gambari to report. In other words it is given a chance to diplomacy. But how long would we wait and how many people would be burnt alive for the diplomacy to work. Whether the UN delegate is a Caucasian, colored or an Asian, the Junta will not be moved and only the Burmese can see this writings on the wall. We are quite positive that the Junta will have little to compromise and might as well prepared for the worst. In the meantime the ILO will put up the case to the ICJ in Hague and ICC in Rome, which will give credence to the Security Council about the continuation of forced labor.

The international community should speak with one voice on the need for the regime to seek democratic reforms, to end its assault on the ethnic minorities, to do more to prevent the trafficking of human beings and illicit drugs over its borders, must do more to address infectious diseases and the country’s severe HIV/AIDS epidemic. We cannot hope for an honest solution but a punitive resolution

            Whatever action results from the UN discussion, the Security Council must send an unambiguous message to the Junta either they take it or leave it and start preparing the unified army of the ethnic and the pro democracy movement supplying with the much needed resources for the overthrow of the regime by force. The people of Burma have the sole desire to take on the Junta and its cronies on equal terms but not fighting with catapult against tanks and guns. They just need a green light and resources from the UN.

Prof. Kanbawza Win

Winnipeg